American vote for the entire election in North Carolina for 2008 was 23 percent. That was above the 21 percent of the African American population in North Carolina. There was a total of about 1,357,000 African Americans registered to vote in 2008 but the number has risen by 168,000 so far this year. So the percentage of African Americans as part of the Electorate is expected to go up if they turn out. So far in early voting, it looks like they are turning out. You cannot go by actual election day voting in 2008. The percentage might even be more deceiving in early voting because voting of white people has also increased in early voting as well as African American.
Right now the Democratic side has fell below their numbers in 10,000 votes for the first time yesterday. The Republican side has risen. That is not a sign of trouble though because the decrease is minimal. I expect the Democrats to do better on Election Day than in 2008 and visa versa for the Republicans because of the overall registration numbers. I think a lot of Republicans that would likely have voted on election day are voting now to close the sizable lead the Democrats have in early voting. The problem is they are draining their actual votes on November 6 while the Democrats still have more people that have not voted yet including African Americans which are a large chunk of the Democratic vote.
To give you a sense of what I'm talking about, an estimated 1,300,000 African American Americans voted in 2008 out of that 1,357,000. 95 percent of that vote went for Obama. 100 percent of African American women went for Obama in North Carolina which was unheard of in 2008.
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