Karl Rove writes in the WSJ: big early voting lead for Romney in Ohio

[Impious]

will carry him to victory????

As part of his claim, he says that the Quinnipiac poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead vastly overestimates Democratic turnout.

[link:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html|

So, here's my biggest question: how does Karl Rove know the composition of people who have already voted? Is this Ohio monkey business, an estimate based on a poll sample, or something he pulled out his ass?

[Atman]

1. It's Karl Magic.

He just makes shit up. It's what he does.

I am very, very concerned that the Ohio vote, with Mitt's voting-machine company, is going to be stolen. There is a big lead for Obama, and yet Romney owns the voting machine. Karl is setting up the narrative for when they use Romney's machines to steal the votes in the state where Obama is kicking Romney's ass.

[WI_DEM]

2. Who cares what KKKarl (turd face) Rove has to say?

[Impious]

3. I care about the numbers.

[WI_DEM]

9. Karl's numbers?

[geek tragedy]

4. Karl "we have the math" Rove? He's using bogus party ID info from early voting.

Ohio doesn't have partisan registration.

[Firebirds01]

7. In case anyone is wondering

what geek means...In ohio you cant walk up to the booth and say you want the 'straight democrat' ticket. You have to vote individually. Our judges dont list their party affiliation on the ballot so it wouldnt work with the straight party ticket method.

[geek tragedy]

13. The only D-R info available for early voting concerns who voted in 2012 primaries.

Given that Republicans had an actual primary this year, of course there are more Rs than Ds according to that designation.

[Firebirds01]

23. True

I voted during the primary because we had a few local things on the ballot. THey asked which one I was, I said D and got the ballot without the republicans. but I imagine most people went, claimed to be an R, and got the primary ballot.

[geek tragedy]

28. And the primary voters on the R side also include the most hardcore Republicans

The ones who were just chomping at the bit to vote against Obama and likely voted early.

[Firebirds01]

34. But are they voting early?

The ones Ive spoken to see some sort of ritualistic need to vote on election day. In their opinion voting early is like opening presents two days before Christmas, it just isnt the same. They think somehow their vote will count more in a intrinsic sort of way, like a bald eagle and an American flag will bless their ballot while a country singer in carharts sings about liberty.

Plus early voting is for "those people" and they dont want to wait in line with them downtown. They may mail in the ballot but I bet many dont because they think the socialist postal service will switch the vote.


What have you been hearing from Republicans in your neck of the woods?

[geek tragedy]

37. I live in Brooklyn, the only Republicans I've talked to are at work

and they talk about stuff like bunkers, so I avoid politics.

[Impious]

11. Ah! Thank you... you've given me a path to my own research

Thanks again.

Fuck Karl Rove.

[melody]

5. Rove also said McCain would go on to "easy victory" in 2008 n/t

[Firebirds01]

6. Vote in Ohio

You vote early and they put it in an envelope. Then they count it the day of the election. There is no way to tell exactly who someone voted for other than asking them in polls. The Board of Elections doesnt have on record, yet, that a person voted early so all the information is voluntary.

[Impious]

14. Has there been a poll of early Ohio voters?

[Firebirds01]

20. Not that I have seen

There are reports on the number of ballots mailed in or done in person but no indication on who they are.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/ohio-early-voting_n_2046383.html

[LisaL]

25. There have been a number of polls that included early voters.

As far as I am aware, all the polls showed big Obama lead among those who already voted in OH.

[Zambero]

8. Wishful thinking

Truth is, he's posturing up a storm but is quite nervous about having to explain to the Koch Bros. et al why their multi-zillions in campaign cash somehow didn't secure the election they intended to buy.

[adigal]

10. I just heard this from a wingnut coworker

I think they are really losing it.

[smorkingapple]

12. He's latching onto the oversampling shit which has been debunked....

None of these guys get why Democrats are outnumbering Republicans this year. It's all because of the tea party which mostly ID's as Indies. The real gap between Republican leaning and Democrats won't be as large but it appears so when you just look at the crosstabs.

They assume the gap won't be as large come election day which is why they ignore these polls.

[postulater]

32. Where is the over sampling debunked?

Local RW radio guy is claiming the Marquette poll is skewed by sampling.

[Thrill]

15. If that's the case

Why did he feel the need to write an op ed?

[TexasCPA]

16. Karl Rove is a joke

All the polls are showing Obama getting about 60 - 65% of the early vote in OH. The early vote in OH is drowning Romney.

[center rising]

17. Rove likes to lie a lot!!

[RomneyLies]

18. He's lying his ass off

Pulled the same shit in 2006 when they lost their asses.

[julian09]

19. He is afraid that Obama's Quinnipiac lead, will discourage repugs from voting

so he made this stort up.

[Chakaconcarne]

21. my guess is:.......

He's re-framing the perception of the lead so there is less suspicion should he have the chance and can succeed with vote machine manipulation, voter suppression, etc.

One more thing.... The national polls are "tied" because if Obama does win they'll still describe a narrow win and a narrow win can substantiate all the crap the house gop will pull the next 4 years.

[global1]

22. Really - What Do You Think Rove Would Say.....

that they're getting their ass handed to them? I think not. He's got to say this to keep up the illusion.

[Impious]

24. I merely asked about the basis for his numbers.

[LisaL]

26. His head?

Polls show a large lead for Obama among early voters.

[Arugula Latte]

41. See, I thought he'd pulled it out of his ass, not his head.

[Mojo2]

27. Reaching for a Miracle

Rove could be right about the absentee ballots being for Romney, but the surge for the early voting has been for the Dems. Rove is not factoring in just how damaging that Romney's support of SB 5 in Ohio was to his standing on Ohio. This bill was a union buster that was forced down the throats of the good people of Ohio by an overreaching GOP. The bill was forced back onto the ballow and was repealed by a huge margin. Kasich was humbled and knows just how powerful the machine can be when it is activated for a cause.

[LisaL]

31. Republicans always do better in absentee votes in OH.

Why do you think SOS Husted send every registered voter an absentee ballot application?
But the polls of people who already voted show a big lead for Obama.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

29. Sorry for this stupid question...

What kind of receipt or proof do Ohio voters receive after they vote?

We vote by mail in WA. State. We have a perforated strip that we
remove from our mail in ballot before we mail that corresponds
with the part of the ballot mailed in. This is my receipt.

[LisaL]

33. No strips.

I guess you can take a photo of your absentee ballot if you want proof.

[BigDemVoter]

30. He doesn't

because he's lying out his ASS.

[alcibiades_mystery]

35. Whenever a campaign says "The polls are missing this hidden thing," there are problems

It doesn't always mean fatal problems, but it does mean problems.

"Oh, the consistent finding in 10 polls are all wrong because X."

That's the sign that a campaign is collapsing. Remember, Karl Rove makes public statements of this kind all the time. He was on record calling for New Jersey to go to Bush, and then to McCain. He suffers no consequences for being wrong - not even political embarrassment. So of course he's going to try to prop up Romney's flailing campaign. The real object here seems to be saving downticket races.

[PoliticalBiker]

36. Rove is using...

... or trying to use reverse psychology.

If he can get it out there enough that Mittens has it in the bag, then perhaps it will discourage the dems from showing up at the polls.
I think it will backfire badly, but that is a hope the republicrats have.
Obama is going to eat Mittens for breakfast and take his lunch money in Ohio.
As much as Mittens has screwed the pooch on the auto industry impact in Ohio and his fake attempts at sincerity like the ones with his hurricane benefits for the Red Cross, he's gonna get his backside roasted and handed to him for dinner.

[Maximumnegro]

43. Thing is it's too late. The early votes are in

and by now make Romney winning almost impossible. Unless Rove convinces all Dems to stay home, which he won't.

[The Stranger]

38. Anyone else remember the horror of election night and the John Kerry campaign?

There was great enthusiasm and denying the other side's claims.

Then the election happened.

Are we too soon to dismiss them and their contentions?

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Two huge, massive differences...

1) Only one poll in the final week of the campaign showed Kerry leading (CNN). Every other poll had Bush leading anywhere from .6 to 6 points.

2) Early voting wasn't nearly as big as it is today.

[Jennicut]

46. Kerry was behind by a small margin in the average polling of many swing states as well.

He did not lead in the average of IA, CO, NV, NM, OH or FL polls. He did not lead in WI but squeaked out a .04% victory there. He lead in NH in the polls and won it but it was not enough. OH and NM obviously had some voting issues. Could have won it for him. But he was not polling like Obama is in WI, IA, NV and OH.

[DCBob]

39. smoke and mirrors and hail mary's..

thats all they got left.

[Drunken Irishman]

40. Rove is using THE 'math' from 2006...

I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/karl_roves_math.php?nr=1

[progressivebydesign]

44. Ah what a difference a day makes. I come back to DU today and suddenly everyone's buying RW Bullshit

Seriously folks. Get a grip.

Nearly every post is people talking about how a republican said this.. and a pundit said that.... and omg we're all gonna die!!

Karl Rove has assembled a billion dollars from his marks, aka donors, to defeat the President. His ass is on the line, he HAS to say that shit. You expect him to be honest?? Anyone actually, after listening to Romney, McCain, Coleman, etc., lie daily.. think that Rove has some secret inside info?

Nope. He's just scrambling and spinning frantically, because there will be some VERY pissed off billionaires a week from today.

[Maximumnegro]

45. LOL, I know right. Everyone's like ONOZ does Rove know

something we don't?