I predict Hillary wins both Kentucky and Oregon tomorrow.

[DCBob]

Mostly based on the fact they are both closed primaries. Independents cant vote unless they changed their registration to Dem. I know many have but probably not nearly enough plus the fact they do need to show up to vote. Just registering doesnt help unless they actually vote.

We also do have one Oregon poll that had Hillary way ahead. That poll has not been "debunked" despite what some here have said.

Also Kentucky is mostly surrounded by counties that Hillary won. See map below showing mostly "blue" (Hillary) counties in all the states that border Kentucky..



Looks like its going to be a tough day for Bernie and his gang.. but a great day for Madam Nominee!

[phleshdef]

1. You aren't considering the coal issue in Kentucky. Its a LOT like West Virginia.

[DCBob]

6. Sure coal is an issue but WV was an open primary. KY is closed. That makes a huge difference.

[phleshdef]

14. Not true. West Virginia was only semi-open.

Independents could choose which side to vote in. Registered party voters HAD to vote in their respective party's primary.

Kentucky is closed, but from what I've been able to find, it has far less unaffiliated voters, percentage-wise, than West Virginia does.

[DCBob]

16. Yes.. I stand corrected.

However KY is simply not WV for many reasons... but we shall see soon enough.

[phleshdef]

23. Kentucky has a better economy than West Virginia.

But the south eastern part of the state might as well, be West West Virginia.

[MoonRiver]

17. "Far less unaffiliated voters" = Hillary advantage.

She WINS when Dems vote.

[phleshdef]

21. You have a lot of "conserva-dems" in Appalachian states that don't like Clinton.

And honestly their dislike of her isn't even founded in anything beyond redneck culture. I know this because Appalachia is where I grew up. Its a whole different type of Democrat we are talking about here. Remember how Alison Lundergan Grimes couldn't even bring herself to admit she voted for Obama?

[MoonRiver]

24. Yet she kept saying "I'M A CLINTON DEMOCRAT!"

That doesn't jive with your analysis.

[phleshdef]

27. Yea, when it comes between a white woman and a black guy, thats the best "out"...

...in an Appalachian state full of racists.

Now its between a white man and a woman who worked in the Obama administration who has been grossly misquoted on "putting a lot of miners out of work".

Its going to be a close race in Kentucky.

[MoonRiver]

28. I agree it will be close.

The end result, one way or the other, won't change the numbers significantly.

[riversedge]

18. The closed primary does help Hillary

[Demsrule86]

37. There is also a GM plant there

And Bernie can dance but, he voted against the final auto bailout bill...that is a big deal.

[Adrahil]

39. The irony is...

Bernie hates coal even more than Hillary. Their policies on coal are pretty similar.

[LexVegas]

2. I think Bernie takes both. nt

[MineralMan]

3. Weird year. I'm going to wait and see.

Neither be a blowout for either candidate, though. Delegates will be divided pretty evenly, with little change in the current delegate lead situation. Of that I'm pretty certain.

[LonePirate]

20. Actually, it's win WITH 66% (such as 66-34) not win BY 66% (such as 83-17).

[NWCorona]

5. We will find out soon enough.

[DCBob]

9. Yep.. looking forward to tomorrow night.

Two more competitive primaries. Could be long night before we know for sure.

[reddread]

7. Hillary is at the top of her game

which seems to be "digging its way to China"?

[Viva_La_Revolution]

8. smoking crack is bad, you should stop.

[reddread]

11. with Meth chasers

but we are talking Kentucky (and Oregon, KY west).
almost mandatory.
dont forget the guns.
without the guns you got nothin.

[DCBob]

12. Never touched the stuff... but I do partake a nice cigar once in a awhile.

[onehandle]

10. I predict that no matter what, Hillary will still be the nominee. nt

[DCBob]

13. That's a sure prediction!

[joshcryer]

15. That would be an incredible upset.

I don't see it happening. But if it does expect dozens of "leaving the party" type posts.

[DCBob]

19. Indeed. It could get ugly.

[LonePirate]

22. If Hillary wins both, the only guaranteed outcome will be claims of mass voter fraud.

Of course, if there is voter fraud in Oregon, shouldn't we be hearing about it by now due to the mailed ballot system?

[joshcryer]

31. Someone tried that with me yesterday.

So absurd. Yes, it's possible a family member or thief it whatever steals your ballot and votes for you, kind of hard to avoid that (and I read about cases like that happening, but the people were caught). But to actually game it is incredibly hard, and easily discovered with a statistical regression.

[BootinUp]

25. I tend to agree. nt

[Turin_C3PO]

26. I don't think she'll pull of a win in Oregon.

I used to live there and the liberals I knew seemed more like Bernie types, ya know? Now there's a possibility that you're right if these liberals are registered Independent as opposed to Democrat.

I also think he'll likely pull of Kentucky because it's largely white, which seems to usually favor him. Plus there may be some anger towards Clinton's coal comments.

She'll win California, New Jersey and New Mexico for sure.

[oberliner]

29. No chance

Bernie will win both by substantial margins.

[KingFlorez]

30. Of course she will, they are closed primaries

Sanders has not had much luck in closed primaries

[Herman4747]

34. Bernie won Oklahoma, & that was closed. n/t

[KingFlorez]

35. It was only semi-closed

Kentucky and Oregon are both completely closed, which means independents cannot vote unless they changed registration.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

36. we could change party up to 2 weeks ago, I know 3 who changed from unaffilliated

Just to vote for Bernie.

[joshcryer]

32. Does anyone know when the results will come in?

[DCBob]

49. KY voting closes at 6pm but...

KY is split by central and eastern time zones.. so that might complicate when the results are released.

Oregon closes at 8pm but it also has two time zones but most of Oregon is in Pacific time zone.

[joshcryer]

50. How about Oregon?

[DCBob]

51. 8pm but its a split time zone as well... Pac and Mtn.

[morningfog]

33. She will not win OR and KY will be close. I Think Bernie takes both.

But she will not win OR.

[Demsrule86]

38. By 66 points?

That is what he needs...doubt it.

[morningfog]

56. Did I say that?

That's what you say he needs.

[AzDar]

40. Yep. If the Corporate Candidate doesn't win by At LEAST 20 Points... it's ALL OVER for Hilly.

[Adrahil]

41. My prediction....

She loses OR by 5, and wins KY by 2. Bad night for Sanders given he needs to win by 30+ in both.

[NorthCarolina]

42. Those new registrations will probably be

changed to independent or republican or some other by tomorrow anyway.

[Txbluedog]

43. Yes, because when Bernie loses its never because the voters preferred the other candidate

Right?

[NorthCarolina]

46. Like just yesterday

in Nevada, right?

[GulfCoast66]

60. correct me if I am reading this wrong

But you are a Bernie supporter stating that Bernie supporters that will re-register to republican if he does not win?

Tells me all I need to know.

[Agschmid]

44. I would be shocked if she did.

[DCBob]

47. I wont be.. closed primary makes a huge difference.

Most actual Democrats dont "feel the bern".

[B Calm]

45. Bookmarking

[DCBob]

48. Ok... I will be here tomorrow night and you can tell me how stupendously wrong I was.

[Armstead]

52. Maybe so -- buit that doesn't say much for the inclusiveness of the Dem Party

Nor of a desire to reach out to attract new voters.

[DCBob]

54. Well.. Hillary needs to win this and Bernie needs to drop out before we can do the Kumbayah stuff.

Looking forward to that.

[beaglelover]

53. It really doesn't matter at this point. Hillary will be the D nominee. Bernie will NEVER win by a

huge enough margin which he needs to overtake her in the delegate count. So, in the big scheme of things Bernie will be the loser tomorrow night even if he wins those two contests.

[DCBob]

55. No doubt.

[Logical]

57. LOL, why do you need to predict anything? Hobby? nt

[DCBob]

62. LOL.. Why do you need comment on my predictions? Hobby?

[Logical]

72. No, i just think you like attention. Nt

[DCBob]

73. Actually I just like to discuss politics with folks here.

Shocking.

[VOX]

58. KY maybe, but OR...not so sure.

If any state is in Bernie's sweet spot, it should be Oregon. Interesting to see if recent events will have any bearing on the outcome(s), if at all.

[DCBob]

63. It would definitely be his "sweet spot" except its a closed primary.

That makes a huge difference as we have seen many times this election.

[DemocraticWing]

59. This proud Kentuckian is happily voting for Bernie tomorrow. I think it will be close here.

Kentucky is not actually like any of the surrounding states...there are areas of the state which share some similarities with neighboring states, but we're a true mix with some unique flavor thrown in. Did you know that coal is not even one of the top 10 industries in Kentucky in terms of employment? There are more autoworkers here than coal miners, but you would never think that from how politicians and the media talk about the state.

We also have large diverse cities, horse farms spread across gentle rolling hills, and the best booze on the planet. We are going to carefully look at both candidates tomorrow, and I can honestly say we are a people divided. I know people who haven't even made up their mind yet!

[DCBob]

61. Yes, that makes sense.

I grew up in southern Illinois and am familiar with parts of Kentucky. For sure it is diverse and coal is much less issue than in WV. Seems to me KY is more like TN than any other state and Hillary won there. Plus the fact KY is a closed primary which does benefit Hillary for sure. I think she wins KY.

[Renew Deal]

64. Hillary won Democrats in WV

It was close, but she won them.

[DCBob]

65. Yep. That's why I think she wins both of these today.

Even in non-diverse states she wins the Democrats.

[Renew Deal]

66. KY is much more plausible

I saw that poll in OR, but I have my doubts.

[DCBob]

68. Yeah.. for sure not a 15 point win in Oregon as the poll indicated.

More like in the low single digits.

[firebrand80]

67. Irrelevant

The total delegates will be probably be split <5 either way

Another week that Bernie doesn't get the landslides he needs, but that doesn't really matter, because he's already toast anyway.

If Hillary wins she "cheated," if Bernie wins "we still have a path to victory"

At the end of the night, Bernie vows to stay in until June, Hillary comes out and attacks Drumpf.

We wake up in the morning, and the race isn't any different than it was yesterday.

[DCBob]

69. Two wins for Hillary will further erode Bernie's money train.

That could be relevant in the remaining races.

[firebrand80]

70. True, but

we only have a few weeks left anyway. They probably have their budget set for the rest of their campaign, it's unlikely that anything drastic is going to happen that will change those plans.

[DCBob]

71. Yeah.. probably..

But I do think the mood will change significantly if Bernie loses both.. similar to the loss in New York.