Anyone watching/listening to Bill Press? Dem strategist Chris Kofinis saying the election is still

[mucifer]

a toss up. He said he doesn't believe Nate Silver's predictions.

Wow!

Maybe it's his way of saying "get out the vote!"

[Zynx]

1. He's trying to avoid getting the Dems overconfident.

The last thing we need is people not showing up.

[skeewee08]

2. Yes, sounds like to me he does not want Dems to get over confident....

[Maximumnegro]

15. He doesn't need to worry about that

If it's one thing Dems are consistently good at it's lack of confidence.

[zebe83]

3. Of course he is going to say that.....

I don't want any overconfidence. GOTV!

[VirginiaTarheel]

4. Of course

[earthside]

5. Kofinis is calling it like he sees it.

If you look at the polls, what Kofinis says is true, many of them though showing Obama leading are within the margin of error.

So, if you are trying to be somewhat objective, then one could reasonably call the election a toss-up.

Of course, Kofinis also agreed with Press at the end that if Rmoney does not win Ohio, it is all over and Obama triumphs.

As to Kofinis and the Nate Silver probability stats ... I'm not sure I believe Silver either in a real world sense; playing with numbers is interesting, but human beings are often quite unpredictable and they might not behave as Nate's models predict.

Kofinis did make it clear that it is voter turnout especially among minorities that could make the big difference for Obama -- yup: GOTV!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Will Go With Math Over My Gut

Here's one instance:


In reply to NPtrade's comment on Nov 01, 2012 14:52:15 who wrote: Very interesting. I would never accuse the fine people of...

Just ran OH on the data this morning:

I use a shorter window (12 days) and filter by live polls only since Ohio has so much polling data.

Current Obama margin: 3%. Daily StdDev: 0.681%. Random walk model shows a 3.07% chance of Romney winning with 5.54 days left to go.

That being said everybody should vote.

[Mike Daniels]

18. The problem with poll numbers is people lie

So Silver's calculations could be totally incorrect if the polls were manipulated through false information being provided.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. They are stealing votes in Florida. This isn't over by a long shot!

Florida early vote totals revised, raising questions

An analysis of the unofficial totals by early voting location on the Broward Supervisor of Elections website from Saturday, compared to the tallies posted on Sunday, shows that in one location, the E. Pat Larkins Community Center, located on Martin Luther King Blvd. in Pompano Beach, the revised totals showed 1,003 fewer votes. The initial tally reported from the polling place in the heavily black neighborhood showed 2,945 votes, but the revised tally was 1,401. Across the 17 Broward polling locations, 15 saw their vote totals revised, mostly by minute amounts of between 1 and 7 votes. But the three more significant changes, including the addition of 398 votes in Tamarac (a racially mixed community) and adding 99 votes to the totals from Pompano Beach City Hall, whose demographic is majority white.


http://thegrio.com/2012/10/29/florida-early-vote-totals-revised-raising-questions/?fb_ref=http%3A%2F%2Fthegrio.com%2F

[bigbrother05]

8. The RW fraudsters is Fla need to be hauled off to prison

But while winning Fla is a goal, it isn't a foundation to Obama winning.

Not discounting the importance of a clean election process, we should do everything we can to fight them.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. To God's ear, I hope you are right. I'm in MD and we're targeted VA this weekend.

[Maximumnegro]

16. Um, need more actual proof of STEALING

than that. Regardless Obama is on track to win FL by several points based on early voting results.

People need to let 2000 and 2004 go... get over it.

[geek tragedy]

7. If people don't show up to vote, the polls are

worthless.

[Dawgs]

9. Heard it and he should be embarrassed.

I have no problem with him trying to keep turnout up, but trying to pretend that it's close is just plain stupid.

First of all, he said it's just like 2004. Doesn't he realize that anyone can look up the results from 2004 compared to the final polls? Because if you do look them up you will see that the 2004 election was much closer than now (FL, PA, WI, IA, NM, NH, and even Hawaii within 2.0 points in polls).

Second, he said there's a chance that Obama might lose Ohio. Then he said that Obama is winning there anywhere between 2 and 5 points. Obama has NEVER BEEN DOWN in Ohio. He's never been down there, EVER. That means that any error in polls means nothing. Unless something changes before Tuesday, Obama will win Ohio. If he's a Democratic strategist then he knows this to be true.

I'm shocked that he said something so ridiculous. Maybe he's just not good in Math.

[LeftInTX]

10. It is too close to call

He's gotta win Ohio.

If he doesn't win Ohio, he will have to win Virginia or Florida

His RCP lead in Ohio is 2.3
Not exactly a large percent.

[Dawgs]

12. Disagree. 1) 2.3 is a very large lead. 2) If he doesn't win Ohio he can also win with Colorado.

Point two doesn't matter because he will win Ohio.

I will follow up this weekend showing how poll numbers compare with final results. Trust me, 2.3 is a good lead for Obama.

[bama_blue_dot]

13. I would think you have to take into account

the huge possibilities of fraud in Ohio.. Husted is trying everything he can to steal this.. I hope we won't have to depend on just Ohio..

[Maximumnegro]

17. OMG you are on acid

the bad strictnine laced paper stuff to boot. The campaign has said they have significant leads in the swing states for several weeks now. SIGNIFICANT.

Too close to call my ass.

Dems refuse to listen to the campaign, because of course Nate must know something they don't...

[LeftInTX]

19. I am? I am? Maybe?

[Liberalynn]

14. I saw him.

He made me angry and wonder just whose side he is on.

Feel better after listening to Mamma Stephanie Miller.

Her guests much more postive.

I know we need to not take anything for granted, but I prefer to stay positive now, and to vote and help GOTV.

ETA - Agreed with above posters that he is probably trying to guard against over confidence, but as long as you actually vote and get other people to actually vote, there is nothing wrong with thinking positive.

[budkin]

20. Obviously

He wants people to work hard