was ahead by significant margins in North Carolina and Ohio in early voting. He was ahead by single digits in Florida but that margin was increasing. It depends on what the final margin is in North Carolina after Saturday's early voting period ends. Right now it looks like President Obama will go into Election Day in North Carolina with a significant lead so far.
For Romney to win North Carolina, He would need to get above 55 percent of the vote on Tuesday. I don't think it will happen for these reasons: I've checked the overall registration numbers at the North Carolina State Board of Elections. The early voting shows the turnout is above 2008 so far on both sides. The Republicans are much better prepared for early voting than in 2008. Nevertheless, their overall registration only shows a slight increase of around 40 to 50,000 voters.
That tells me, Republicans that have voted on election day are voting during the early voting period. The Republicans are making the claim, Democrats are doing that but I see no evidence. The way this should measured are the numbers on both sides which have not voted. Analysts are measuring this by Polls but I think they should measure it by overall registration numbers.
For example, over two million Democrats have yet to vote. Included in that number is an estimated 950,000 African Americans or more. On the Republican side according to their overall registration numbers, the pool of Republicans is smaller. It is now less than one million five hundred thousand because close to 600,000 have voted. So even though Polls are saying at least 55 to 60 percent voting on election day in North Carolina will be Republicans, the numbers just don't add up when you have more Democrats left to vote and a good number of that group are still African Americans. What is added emphasis, even though African Americans have heavily voted in Early voting, their overall numbers from 2008, show an increase of 168,000 new voters. So those new voters maybe showing up in early voting. If this is in fact true, that will be the difference on Election Day.
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