Nate Silver's 538 Update: Obama 79% - Romney 21% (Obama EVs: 300.4)

[Tx4obama]

Updated 12:53 AM ET on Nov. 1

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I am surprised that no one had posted this yet in Politics2012

[ashtonelijah]

1. But what if

But what if Nate Silver is a GOP plant here to trick us into a false sense of security and we don't go out to vote and Romney get elected Emperor of the Universe! OMG! THAT COULD HAPPEN! THIS IS AWFUL NEWS!

[Tx4obama]

2. I think he is being honest with his numbers. He did a good job in 2008.

And there are other projections that are in line with what Nate has been predicting - he's not the only one.

[ashtonelijah]

4. I was kidding

I was getting it in first. I just know someone will come in and find a bad news angle to this lol

[Tx4obama]

5. I thought you were serious due to the news that came out today, see below

DU OP here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251194824

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. i think that is bullshit. I heard him interviewed on NPR....he admitted he doesn't really care

about politics - he is a consummate mathematician/statistician. Not voting fits this perfectly

[Curtland1015]

3. This is Hugh! I'm cereal!

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. No, this is Hugh. I'M Sirius.

[DCBob]

15. There is no false sense of security among Democrats..

we always fear loss even when we know we should win big.

[TroyD]

6. Am I correct that the Marquette poll for WI is missing from Nate's model?

There was a WI poll earlier today from Marquette showing Obama (+8). It appears to be missing from the list of Wisconsin polls.

Did Nate forget to include it?

[Tx4obama]

7. I don't have a clue. Can you send him an email or shoot him a Twitter message? n/t

[amborin]

16. Silver did not forget; he even mentioned it in his article; said it came in too late to add to the

nightly run of the model

[VespertineIconoclast]

8. Steady upswing for POTUS.

[DemKittyNC]

9. Thank you for posting!

These numbers are looking better and better. Nice to see NC turning lighter shades of pink closer to election day! Especially when Nate's formula does not include early voters. So record high early voting + record high turn out of African-Americans + Nate's numbers turning NC closer and closer to blue = N.C. for President Obama!!!

[mucifer]

11. K and R

[yellowcanine]

12. Seeing Nate have Obama break the 300 EV threshold is encouraging.

Personally I still think Obama is going to get Florida and end up with 332 EVs.

[zipplewrath]

14. I'm worried about the storm

Cleveland and the surrounding area was severly affected by the storms and many are still without power. I fear many folks won't vote at all because of other demands on their time. Does Nate try to address this problem at all?

[jenmito]

17. K&R! n/t