2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's Rove rationalizing a Romney Victory and setting up the theft
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.
He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.
The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.
. . .
Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama's 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.
. . .
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidencefrom crowd sizes to each side's closing argumentsgive the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion
where did the ballot request information come from? Husted? Note that no poll of early voters in Ohio is mentioned. What a surprise.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)This guy talks out of his ass a lot. I wouldn't listen to a word he says.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)GOP operatives predicting a Romney win using cooked and warped data on a GOP rag's website?
Who woulda thunk it?
gravity
(4,157 posts)To help swing the last minute undecideds in their favor.
Don't take what he says seriously. He has the agenda and is trying to play the media to his advantage.
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)in GOP precincts do not match the exit polls. The media whores will claim that uninformed voters believed the Big Lie and that was why they switched their votes at the last moment. That was what Swiftboat Vets was all about. No one smart enough to pull a lever would buy that crap, but the WSJ can declare "America is a nation of morons who will believe anything!" and insist that the vote is fair, no matter how rigged it is.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)Rasmussen or Gallup can claim they were right all along and Sam Wang and Nate Silver were wrong.
I am struck by his exact numbers on early voting in Ohio. I don't think these are public numbers and they are subject to manipulation. This is just another way we are being set up for the fall.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)talking about "THE math" he had that super sercretly told the tale of the 2006 midterms - right before the pubs lost most houses. He's a cheerleader, not a serious person.
http://www.npr.org/about/press/061024_rove.html
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)That was the marketing mantra in the 80s. If you can make people believe something, it will happen.
The problem is, of course, when reality turns into a brick wall. You may be able to convince some people to run headlong into it, but they still will not be able to walk through it.