Nate Silver: Should Romney have picked Rob Portman?

[TroyD]

Is Nate right? Would Portman have given Romney a better shot in Ohio because of the 2-point increase a V.P. candidate sometimes brings to his own state? Or would he have been less exciting to the right-wingers than Ryan?

Maybe Romney shoulda picked Rob Portman? This race would look very different if Romney had a 2-point bonus in OH.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[LisaL]

1. Either way-too late now.

[SunSeeker]

2. LOL Yeah, Romney can join McCain in the VP Coulda-Shoulda-Woulda club.

Both were too insecure about their hold on their own base and too cowardly to pick who they really wanted. Instead, they pandered to their base rather than showing leadership. Couldn't have happened to a finer pair of douchebags.

[Calypso0956]

3. Kudos, SunSeeker! nt

[Midwestern Democrat]

8. For some reason, the GOP has had a tendency to make inexplicably terrible VP selections

for years now - selections so baffling that everybody is like "WTF?" the very moment it's announced - e.g. Agnew, Quayle, Palin, Ryan.

[SunSeeker]

22. The GOP has a tendency to make inexplicably terrible Pres. selections too. nt

[Chipper Chat]

4. Probably.

Ryan has turned out to be "Sarah Palin with washboard abs."

[exboyfil]

5. Palin still kicks his butt

on Marathon time though.

[Tx4obama]

6. If Portman would have helped Romney more than Ryan then the answer is NO.

We want Romney to lose

[BlueStreak]

7. Let's see what the final margins are in WI and OH

It doesn't appear that Romney will win either state, and it seems like OH will be beyond the 2% you might expect to get from Portman on the ticket.

Is Ryan bringing a 2% in WI? If so, then I don't see where it ends up making any difference.

The problem is Romney. Without a billion dollars in advertising, which permitted Romney to lie with impunity, this would have been a 15-to-20-point spread election.

A better candidate with that same billion dollar budget would have won this race for the GOP.

[fugop]

9. The bigger question: did Romney ruin Ryan?

Conservatives were so madly in love with Paul Ryan and his future, but he's so tarnished now what will become of him? Is he going to win his House seat?

[naviman]

11. They will still love him

They can't afford to lose someone as radical as Ryan. Then again they do have other options like Christie or Rubio. OK maybe not Christie lol.

[Jennicut]

12. Ryan's rep suffered a bit. I think they will look elsewhere now.

Someone new will probably be next in line as their new big star. The Repubs claimed Paul Ryan did well during the VP debate but he was so out of his depth. Plus his being caught in stupid lies. And the soup kitchen debacle.

[zebe83]

14. I think they have shielded him.....

and he is not damaged goods in their eyes.

I think that anyone that runs and loses these days with the media perceptions is toast in future national elections.

It is sort of like American Idol now, you get one season to be the winner.

[naviman]

10. Portman would have been a "November" pick

As in he would have helped in the election. But Romney wasn't confident enough that he would even survive until Nov, so he had to choose someone who would help him get his base on his side. He had no other choice.

[DCBob]

13. No doubt Portman would have been better choice.

bottom line: Romney makes bad decisions.

[Cosmocat]

16. Yep, always was the potential pick

that bothered me the most ...

I was VERY happy it was Ryan.

[sadbear]

15. But he wouldn't have won Wisconsin without Lyin' Paul Ryan.

Oh, wait. Never mind.

[PsychProfessor]

17. Makes you wonder what he was thinking

I mean, why wouldn't he have picked someone, anyone, who would have at least brought something to the EV table? It might have cost him a little bit in terms of his base but eventually he might have assumed that their virulent hatred of Obama would win out. If he had the nomination already, why pick someone who brings nothing but the base to the table? Pathetic.

[fugop]

18. Well, Kerry picked Edwards.

I hate to admit it but I LOVED the Edwards pick at the time. In hindsight, what a lousy pick. Like Ryan, he tanked against evil Cheney (and I naively thought Edwards' trial experience would win the day). Then again, Gore chose Lieberman in a play for Florida, and that failed as well.

I don't know if Portman could have saved Ohio, but Ryan at the time looked like a decent pick (young; conservative creds where Mitt had none; revved up the base, which hated Mitt; possibility of bringing Wisc. over).

Mitt just sucked as a candidate. In four years, he had one good night, which the media stretched out for two weeks. That was it. Portman couldn't have saved him.

[WI_DEM]

19. Where's the +2 that Ryan brought to WI?

[atufal]

20. Maybe. Ryan was definitely a bad choice.

Romney had already won the primary by being a right-winger.. I know a lot of the GOP laity saw him as a RINO. But he knew he would have to run to the center anyway. And so did the Republican establishment. Why pick Ryan who they KNOW is going to be Exhibit 1 in the exposure of the GOP's future plans for Medicare and do a lot of damage with seniors?

I think Ryan has been a terrible running mate. Joe Biden beat his ass. He is aggressively interested in dismantling the social safety net. And he is a dyed-in-the-wool right-winger that can't even hide his contempt for the American people. He sounds like a smug-ass parrot and for all of the talk about Obama talking down to people, did you see him with the AARP? "Gran, remember how we told you that if you kept turning the heat on while we were at work we would have to put you in a home? Well, I think you know what you did..."

He was a flash in the pan, JUST like Palin.

[Dawgs]

21. 1) Portman would have tied Romney to Bush. 2) Obama will win OH by 5, so 2 points wouldn't help.

3) Portman isn't exactly loved in Ohio (38% approval). It would probably be lower after a few months of attacks by Obama campaign.

[Tree-Hugger]

23. Can Portman fake-wash dishes?

I listened to a lot of analysts in the days before the VP pick who said Portman would be a wise choice for Romney, but that he was also boring and lacked the ability to fire up the base.