2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo, Bernie supporters... what are you looking for on Tuesday?
Please provide the end percentages that you are expecting from KY and OR on Tuesday? Bernie needs to average 66% of all remaining delegates to get a majority of the pledged delegates. But that is an average, and we keep hearing OR is a state tailor made for Bernie... so given that he will almost certainly lose (probably lose big in NJ), what percentage do the Bernie fans agree would be required in KY and OR to call those successful results?
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)That seems like awfully low expectations.
Do you have another answer as to what you really feel he needs to achieve on Tuesday to consider it a success?
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)we'll just have to settle for what we can scrape up.
Don't worry too much about it. Obviously we're just whistling in the dark.
Nothing to see here. Move on
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)yourself a glass of wine and take a load off. Pay no attention to the man kicking ass in all remaining states. You don't need his supporters anyway. Full steam ahead on crowning your queen.
Corporate666
(587 posts)your metric for him being successful means winning CA, DC and NJ?
Noted.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)I expect that Sanders will do well. That means beating Clinton.
I hope he will do VERY well. That means meeting, or at least getting close to, his campaign's goal.
I dropped my vote for him in a drop box last week.
Bakkeno
(20 posts)With Hillary the rest of the way?
LWolf
(46,179 posts)I just want him to keep beating her, and keep earning delegates. We'll see where he stands with pledged delegates after June 7th. I think he can get there.
Response to LWolf (Reply #17)
Name removed Message auto-removed
I want him to keep winning delegates. I'm not sure why that's so hard to comprehend.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)is not the goal of the Democratic Party Presidential nomination process. 2026 PDs is irrelevant and delusional; see the Politico Delegate Tracker to end your serious break with political reality:
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Sanders actually needs 86 percent of remaining delegates to reach 2383 PDs + SDs. Hillary needs only 14 percent, which she is virtually certain to attain. Because the Democratic primary-caucus process does not have winner-take-all states, each candidate who exceeds a minimal vote threshold gets at least FIFTEEN percent of a state's delegates.
This race is over, and Bernie Bots only are helping Trump and Republican control of Congress and the USSC by continuing to echo their lies about Hillary. Give it up.
Corporate666
(587 posts)I don't disagree with you for the most part, although saying "2026 is irrelevant and delusional" isn't accurate, IMO.
But it's also not a guarantee that Bernie gets the nomination. All reaching 2026 would do is to give him a solid foundation for a reasoned plea to SD's to switch to him. Some are assuming that if he hit 2026 that he WILL get the SD's. That's a bad and false assumption.
If he gets less than 2026, he has zero chance of swaying the SD's, of course.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)qualification of what you said in your OP. Still not a sensible political position IMO, in light of the boost you Bernie Bots are giving to Trump and Republican candidates for Congress. Do you realize what's at stake here?
YouDig
(2,280 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)because it seems the goalposts keep moving.
Surely, 36+ hours before voting begins for Tuesday's primaries, everyone has an idea in their head what success or failure looks like. From a practical standpoint, success for Clinton means winning at least 35% of the vote in both states. Doing so will put Bernie further behind and further reduce his chances. An even more desirable outcome for Clinton would be to win one or both states on Tuesday - but that is a "nice to have" not a "must have" for her and her campaign.
Conversely, I think the answer from Bernie voters would be that he has to win 65% in both states as a "must have", but a greater percentage win would be a "nice to have" considering it's unlikely he will achieve 65% in DC and NJ - and others too.
But it's interesting that no Sanders voters have been willing to make a commitment on what success looks like for Bernie on Tuesday.
YouDig
(2,280 posts)And after the fact, what success looks like is whatever just happened. It's really a great system, as long as all you want to do is convince people to send you money. Not so much for winning elections.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Corporate666
(587 posts)How do you reconcile that with the number of delegates he needs to catch up by? Or are you accepting that he won't gain a majority of delegates before the convention and simply hoping for the most possible for.... some reason?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)A narrative win is necessary, but not enough alone, for the upset he needs in NJ and CA.
It is nearly impossible for him to get a majority of PDs. But until he is mathematically eliminated, I support his run and his amassing as many delegates as possible.
Hillary won't clinch, if she does, until essentially the last day of voting.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)But no, I don't think he'll do it.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Response to Vote2016 (Reply #21)
Name removed Message auto-removed