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factfinder_77

(841 posts)
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:11 PM May 2016

Oregon: Clinton leading Sanders + 15 - Clinton 48, Sanders 33. Ballots due at 8 p.m on May 17

Last edited Sun May 15, 2016, 04:00 PM - Edit history (1)

Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene — he’ll speak again Tuesday night in Salem — but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.

There was a stark age gap: Among those younger than 45, 64 percent supported Sanders, compared to 20 percent for Clinton. Among those 45 and older, the numbers flip: Clinton has the support from 56 percent of older voters, and Sanders had 25 percent.

Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.

On the Republican side, 45 percent of likely voters surveyed said they have voted or plan to vote for Trump. Ted Cruz and John Kasich, who both suspended their campaigns last week, had 14 percent each among poll respondents.

But Trump’s fortunes in Oregon may change after the primary: If the general election were held today, 43 percent of poll respondents said they’d vote for Clinton, and 32 percent said they would support Trump.

Those numbers shouldn’t be seen as a ringing endorsement for either candidate, however. Among potential Trump voters, 52 percent said their vote was based more on their dislike of Clinton than Trump’s appeal. Among Clinton supporters, 43 percent said they were supporting her because they dislike him.

Ballots in the Oregon primary due at 8 p.m. on May 17. The margin of error in the DHM Research survey ranged from 5.6 percent in the Democratic primary survey results to 3.3 percent for the general election questions.



http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/


Oregon has the most convenient voting system in the country. Since adopting vote-by-mail, Oregon consistently ranks as a national leader in voter turnout.

Registered voters receive a ballot two to three weeks before an election, giving time to research issues or candidates.

Voters also receive an official ballot to complete and insert into the security envelope which is placed in the ballot return envelope and signed by the voter. The ballot return envelope can be stamped and mailed or dropped off at any official drop box​ across the state. If a voter casts their ballot after the Wednesday before an election, the ballot should be left at a drop box site to ensure it's counted.

Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day.


http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/voteinor.aspx


On Jan. 1, 2016 Oregon’s new voter registration law, Oregon Motor Voter, took effect.
This law was created by House Bill 2177​, passed by the Legislature in the 2015 Session and signed into law by Governor Kate Brown.

The program modernizes voter registration in Oregon and provides a secure, simple, and convenient way for more Oregonians to become registered voters.

How it Works

Automatic voter registration is available if you are eligible* to register to vote and you apply for your original, renewal, or replacement license, permit, or ID card at the DMV.

Once you engage the Oregon Motor Voter process by visiting the DMV, you will receive a card and a pre-paid postage return envelope from the Oregon State Elections Office.

With this card, you have three options:

Do nothing. You will be registered to vote as a nonaffiliated voter (not a member of a political party).
Choose a political party by returning the card. Joining a political party will allow you to vote in its primary elections.
Use the card to opt-out and decline to register to vote.

Once registered, you will automatically receive a ballot and instructions in the mail about two weeks before an election. When you vote, your ballot is secret and your choices cannot be matched up with your name.


http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/motor-voter.aspx


32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Oregon: Clinton leading Sanders + 15 - Clinton 48, Sanders 33. Ballots due at 8 p.m on May 17 (Original Post) factfinder_77 May 2016 OP
NOT TRUE grasswire May 2016 #1
How is the poll not true? CrowCityDem May 2016 #2
lol...I think he/she meant it is an outlier.... Henhouse May 2016 #4
yes but DLCWIdem May 2016 #11
The article has a glaring error, Sanders has never spoken in Eugene. Bluenorthwest May 2016 #5
Bernie's website say he had a "Rally in Eugene/Springfield" on 4/28 DCBob May 2016 #8
no he will lose Florencenj2point0 May 2016 #7
Yes. If he loses I leave DU for 1 week. If you lose, all Brock's sockpuppets here must leave for 1wk JonLeibowitz May 2016 #29
Debunked?? I think you just refuse to believe it. DCBob May 2016 #10
That word "debunked" is overused and misunderstood KingFlorez May 2016 #13
DEBUNKED grasswire May 2016 #15
Questioning is not the same as debunking. Debunking would prove the poll is wrong. CrowCityDem May 2016 #16
nit picking now grasswire May 2016 #17
LOL.. so its debunked because you are an "Oregon native"?? DCBob May 2016 #18
I guess you didn't read the debunking by the math expert. grasswire May 2016 #20
It wasn't a debunking. They said why it might not be accurate. Never said it wasn't. CrowCityDem May 2016 #21
What exactly did the "math expert" say? DCBob May 2016 #23
I did. grasswire May 2016 #25
Ok.. I see what you posted but that's not the same poll as the poll referenced in the OP. DCBob May 2016 #28
Think he'll win by 30+ points? Adrahil May 2016 #24
The poll is the poll. annavictorious May 2016 #26
A closed primary will not be a landslide MattP May 2016 #3
she will win Florencenj2point0 May 2016 #6
Oregon Motor Voter is Here! factfinder_77 May 2016 #12
He needs a 65/35 landslide Txbluedog May 2016 #9
the goose is well cooked already. IMHO riversedge May 2016 #14
Given that Oregon is one of the last states where such a landslide is remotely possibke Txbluedog May 2016 #19
That's a very cool system. kstewart33 May 2016 #22
likely Oregon voters. Kip Humphrey May 2016 #27
I live in Portland fun n serious May 2016 #30
A friend ..... LenaBaby61 May 2016 #31
I agree. fun n serious May 2016 #32

Henhouse

(646 posts)
4. lol...I think he/she meant it is an outlier....
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:31 PM
May 2016

I hope the poll is true but Nate Cohn of 538 thinks they under polled millenials....

Oregon should be an easy pick up for Sander's....

DLCWIdem

(1,580 posts)
11. yes but
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:51 PM
May 2016

They might have underpolled millenials as there was a 88,000 uptick in registration. However, Benchmark politics, a pretty good poll fairly accurate this season, has Hill up by 2 points. Good Luck Oregon. BTW berners if that poll was underpolled thats why polls in swi g stayes had Trump close because it underpolled AA.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
5. The article has a glaring error, Sanders has never spoken in Eugene.
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:36 PM
May 2016

He spoke in a neighboring city. This is one of the few actual facts the article is presenting, and it is wrong. This makes the rest of the narrative seem dubious as well.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
13. That word "debunked" is overused and misunderstood
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:59 PM
May 2016

The poll is real and unless there was some proof that it is not real then there is nothing to debunk.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
15. DEBUNKED
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:02 PM
May 2016
https://johnlaurits.com/2016/05/11/psa-pay-no-attention-to-articles-claiming-clinton-leads-in-oregon/


Greetings, my friends! This is just a quick Math Vs. Media Public Service announcement — please pay no attention to the flood of “news” that is claiming that Clinton leads in the Oregon polls. All of them are based off of the same crappy survey — a crappy survey of a mere 304 “likely voters,” 2 of which said they weren’t voting, knocking that down to 302 people.

The survey does not even state that these 302 are Democrats (the only group that can vote in the Oregon democratic primaries) and, because they’re listing the surveyed people as “likely voters,” not “registered voters,” one can only assume that the company, “DHM Research,” which conducted this “survey,” either
a.) Knows that some of them aren’t registered
or
b.) Doesn’t know whether they are registered or not.

Furthermore, the survey does not reveal its methodology — I’ve searched their website and can’t even find information about whether it was a landline, cellphone, or internet survey! (In their FAQ, they state that they use internet surveys & cell-phone surveys).

At the very least, even if we assume that the 302 people are registered democratic voters and that it was’t an internet survey, we’re looking at about a 9-10% margin of error (±7% for the sample size and ±2-3% for using cell-phones), which is more than the survey says Clinton leads by. Therefore, the survey could potentially mean the opposite of what it says it means. I have called “DHM Research” repeatedly to inquire further but they have not picked up.

As you can surely see, this survey (even assuming a lot in its favor) means precisely: nothing at all, really. Well, it does mean one thing, actually. It means that Clinton and her corporate-media goons are getting desperate — so desperate, in fact, that they’re now writing dozens of articles loudly trumpeting Clinton’s “lead,” all based off of the same shadowy “survey” of 302 people who we know nothing about. They are scared because…

Oregon berns!

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
18. LOL.. so its debunked because you are an "Oregon native"??
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:11 PM
May 2016

Who knew that's all it takes to be a polling expert.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
20. I guess you didn't read the debunking by the math expert.
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:16 PM
May 2016

I guess vitriolic denial is all it takes to be a DCBob.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
23. What exactly did the "math expert" say?
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:30 PM
May 2016

Also please provide a link to the "debunking".

That would all be helpful.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
28. Ok.. I see what you posted but that's not the same poll as the poll referenced in the OP.
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:57 PM
May 2016

The poll referenced in the OP had 901 "likely voters".. the poll your "math expert" is referring to says it had only 304 “likely voters”

I think the confusion is coming from a second poll the pollster did using a different model which resulted in less respondents which is what the "math expert" seems to be concerned about.

Researchers tested two potential turnout scenarios, to see if the race might change if turnout is higher than expected. But even in a higher turnout race, Clinton led Sanders, this time 45 percent to 38 percent.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

Poll crosstabs:
http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1463018600/OPBFoxOregonDemocraticPrimaryTypicalTurnoutModel_vwg245.pdf

Sorry to have bothered you.
 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
24. Think he'll win by 30+ points?
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:35 PM
May 2016

I think Snders wins OR, but by 30 points? Not in a closed primary state....

 

annavictorious

(934 posts)
26. The poll is the poll.
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:51 PM
May 2016

It has not been debunked, but it does appear to be an outlier.

Sanders is very likely to win, but I think it will only matter to those counting on fauxmentum.

MattP

(3,304 posts)
3. A closed primary will not be a landslide
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:29 PM
May 2016

A closed caucus perhaps, but primary. I think it will be close anyone thinking they know is lying considering there is only one poll

Florencenj2point0

(435 posts)
6. she will win
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:37 PM
May 2016

but it will be close. Here is the wiki page on OR vote by mail. I was curious if they even had polling places. I believe that every county has to have at least one polling place open on election day.
[link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote-by-mail_in_Oregon|

 

factfinder_77

(841 posts)
12. Oregon Motor Voter is Here!
Sun May 15, 2016, 03:57 PM
May 2016
Oregon has the most convenient voting system in the country. Since adopting vote-by-mail, Oregon consistently ranks as a national leader in voter turnout.

Registered voters receive a ballot two to three weeks before an election, giving time to research issues or candidates.

Voters also receive an official ballot to complete and insert into the security envelope which is placed in the ballot return envelope and signed by the voter. The ballot return envelope can be stamped and mailed or dropped off at any official drop box​ across the state. If a voter casts their ballot after the Wednesday before an election, the ballot should be left at a drop box site to ensure it's counted.

Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day.


http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/voteinor.aspx


On Jan. 1, 2016 Oregon’s new voter registration law, Oregon Motor Voter, took effect.
This law was created by House Bill 2177​, passed by the Legislature in the 2015 Session and signed into law by Governor Kate Brown.

The program modernizes voter registration in Oregon and provides a secure, simple, and convenient way for more Oregonians to become registered voters.

How it Works

Automatic voter registration is available if you are eligible* to register to vote and you apply for your original, renewal, or replacement license, permit, or ID card at the DMV.

Once you engage the Oregon Motor Voter process by visiting the DMV, you will receive a card and a pre-paid postage return envelope from the Oregon State Elections Office.

With this card, you have three options:

Do nothing. You will be registered to vote as a nonaffiliated voter (not a member of a political party).
Choose a political party by returning the card. Joining a political party will allow you to vote in its primary elections.
Use the card to opt-out and decline to register to vote.

Once registered, you will automatically receive a ballot and instructions in the mail about two weeks before an election. When you vote, your ballot is secret and your choices cannot be matched up with your name.


http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/motor-voter.aspx

 

Txbluedog

(1,128 posts)
19. Given that Oregon is one of the last states where such a landslide is remotely possibke
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:11 PM
May 2016

A Sanders loss or few point win will mean the goose will have berned 😀

 

fun n serious

(4,451 posts)
30. I live in Portland
Sun May 15, 2016, 04:58 PM
May 2016

I do NOT see big Bernie support in the suburbs. I only see it in North, North East, and downtown. Heavy Hispanic Hillsoboro has many Clinton signs. East Portland and Gresham where minorities live are Clinton ville.

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
31. A friend .....
Sun May 15, 2016, 06:36 PM
May 2016

Lives in Hillsoboro, and she told me that it is indeed Clinton country, and that for months she's seen nothing but Hillary Clinton signs covering most lawns (And her own lawn also), and she told me that her neighbors are feeling are feeling a Hillary Clinton win of Oregon. She said that she's seen maybe 10 Bernie signs in total in that area for the longest time (months). Whichever candidate having the most lawn signs doesn't tell the tale as to who'll win as we know, but she was just telling me what's been going on in her neck of the woods there in Oregon the past few months.

I've seen the latest poll showing that Hillary Clinton will win Oregon and by a wide margin. I doubt that, and am still feeling that Bernie Sanders has the edge in winning Oregon, although I do feel that he won't win it in "gigantic" numbers as I've seen predicted.

We'll see what IS what in just a few days literally. The proof will be in the pudding (results).

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