2016 Postmortem

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts) Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:27 PM Oct 2012

Obama at 69.1% on Intrade

Slowly but surely, on Intrade and on just about every other compilation site, Obama is increasing the daylight between himself and Romney.

Edit: Noticed that on the betting sites, the "consensus" odds appear to be 3:1 in favor of Obama, up from 5:2 a few days ago.

9 replies

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Obama at 69.1% on Intrade (Original Post) Jeff In Milwaukee Oct 2012 OP

How accurate has Intrade George Katona Oct 2012 #1

Because the two aren't related... Jeff In Milwaukee Oct 2012 #3

I wouldn't say that it is George Katona Oct 2012 #4

For your dream of a 269 tie, Mitt would also have to take NV. morningfog Oct 2012 #6

Sure it's possible Jeff In Milwaukee Oct 2012 #8

That's right Robme, 69... ejbr Oct 2012 #2

Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #5

You might want to go over to freerepublic....I'm sure you'd fit right in. ejbr Oct 2012 #7

Intrade upped the electoral count to moobu2 Oct 2012 #9

George Katona

(52 posts)

1. How accurate has Intrade

Reply to Jeff In Milwaukee (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:44 PM

Oct 2012

been in the past? I looked at the current RCP average polling and it is tied. How can Intrade have 3:1 advantage when the average of polls is 1:1?

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)

3. Because the two aren't related...

Reply to George Katona (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:50 PM

Oct 2012

A candidate could conceivably win a landslide in the Electoral Vote while losing the popular vote. While the national vote is tied, Obama is clearly leading in just about every Battleground State except for North Carolina and Florida (and he's a least tied in those states).

Without Ohio, there are few paths to 270 electoral votes for the Romney campaign.

George Katona

(52 posts)

4. I wouldn't say that it is

Reply to Jeff In Milwaukee (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:28 PM

Oct 2012

possible to win a landslide in the electoral college with a popular vote of 51 to 49 %, but it is going to be too close. I played around on RCP electoral map and swing states and if Mittens gets FL, NC, IA, VA and CO it will be a 269/269 tie which would go to the House of Reps for breaking the tie. Mittens wins, scary but maybe a huge cry by the population to dismantle the electoral college. Also, the vice prez would be decided by the Senate, meaning Joe would still be VP. How effing weird would that be?

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

6. For your dream of a 269 tie, Mitt would also have to take NV.

Reply to George Katona (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:40 PM

Oct 2012

Ain't gonna happen. Nor will Obama lose CO or IA. VA is getting more safe for Obama everyday. NC and FL aren't far behind.

PLay all you want, but Mitt can't win without OH and Mitt is not going to win OH.

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)

8. Sure it's possible

Reply to George Katona (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:45 PM

Oct 2012

If a candidate eeks out a win in the big states and loses by a landslide in the small states, it could happen. It's mathematically possible, but highly (highly) unlikely. Nearly as unlikely as the electoral vote tie -- Romney would have to run the table in several states where he's currently losing.