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2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:13 PM Oct 2012

Princeton Consortium- Random Drift 95% Bayesian Orediction 99%

http://election.princeton.edu/

2 replies

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Princeton Consortium- Random Drift 95% Bayesian Orediction 99% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP

Princeton Consortium with their hard numbers, statistical analysis and facts Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #1

That's weird -- the numbers just dropped... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #2

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)

1. Princeton Consortium with their hard numbers, statistical analysis and facts

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:26 PM

Oct 2012

Who the hell do they think they are?

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

2. That's weird -- the numbers just dropped...

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:48 PM

Oct 2012

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 01:23 AM - Edit history (1)

EV
Then: Obama 318 Romney 220
Now: Obama 303 Romney 235

Meta-margin
Then: Obama +2.60
Now: Obama +2.18

Re-elect odds
Then: 95%/99%
Now: 93%/98%

While I'd still take those odds, I'm trying to figure out what happened over the past twelve hours to lower Obama's chances.

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