Resolved: Current Political Polling methodology is as up to date as pay telephones.
Not so long ago I had a job contacting businesses and once leaving the physical address I would whip around the corner to report in on a pay telephone.
The basic structure of polling was established at that time.
Four years ago basically everyone had a cell phone and a land line.
I have two older siblings that have landlines, one lives in an area with poor cell phone access. Everyone in that area is a Republican.
Even though I was the last to get a smart phone in my group of associates and friends. I don't know anyone in my circle that still has a land line.
For the most part pay telephones are gone, no longer needed as cell phones have become ubiquitous.
Four years ago polls using only landlines had a bias.
Now land line polls don't reflect the populace. Beside that screening of calls has increased dramatically. In our business we have had to radically change our phoning patterns to actually talk to people on the phone.
We now have to text ahead to get people to pick up a phone.
I will not be surprised that after this general election there are a number of states where the actual outcome is 5-6 points different from the polls.
It is not a conspiracy, the polls are just using a model where the phone industry used to be 6-8 years ago when pay telephones and landlines were critical parts of the infrastructure.
