2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOregon may not be Bernie territory after all
From Oregon Public Broadcasting..
DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Oregon voters between May 6 and May 9 for OPB and Fox 12. Among Democrats, Clinton led U.S. Sen. Sanders 48 percent to 33 percent. Sanders has attracted adoring crowds at campaign appearances in Portland and Eugene hell speak again Tuesday night in Salem but the Democratic primary is a closed election. That means only registered Democrats can vote, and may help explain why Clinton leads in the poll.
http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/
Survey details: http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1463018600/OPBFoxOregonDemocraticPrimaryTypicalTurnoutModel_vwg245.pdf
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Oregon is a closed primary so only Democrats allowed to vote in the Democratic primary. That appears to be Bernie's problem.
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)Democrats can vote for the Democratic Party's candidate! Does the press know about this?
COLGATE4
(14,732 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Jeebus. I thought it was Republicans who don't like people to have the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice.
And before you pull out the Trump mischief card, I'd say that's about as good a justification as the GOP claims of fraudulent voting to justify their denial of access.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)Bullshit.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)I ain't no cheerleader, but I'll do whatever helps. Almost all career politicians disgust me and Clinton is practically the distilled essence of the last 40 years of bullshit. Sanders is just on the side of tolerable and honest, which makes him one-eyed king in the land of the blind. I prefer to talk about issues, not bullshit, or to invent paranoid crap about secret Republican waves. Yeah, I'm sure a lot of low-info voters in West Virginia who a) aren't so bad they're taken in by the Clinton bullshit and b) are angry for good reasons are ready to go with Sanders or Trump without distinction, foolishly. Why? Because Clinton is the Status Quo. Surprise surprise.
Jury: Read all the posts in the exchange. Thank you.
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)Why vote for Sanders but then tell pollsters that you actually favor Trump over Sanders unless you're trying to screw with the democratic primary?
frylock
(34,825 posts)Come back with some hard data. We'll talk then.
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)They have talked about it on talk radio too.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you really should get out more.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I thought that it was mostly Sanders supporters throwing around conspiracy theories. There was no "operation chaos". Don't make clinton supporters look loony.
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)So the 40% of red state "independents" in West Virginia who voted for Sanders but say they prefer Trump were just confused?
Arneoker
(375 posts)They just hate the "establishment," and they think voting first for Bernie and then for Trump is the way to do it. I think its kind of nutty myself, but there is a certain logic to it.
Bottom line, WV was going to be the Republicans' if they had nominated Lord Voldemort with Darth Vader as his running mate. The Democrats talk about climate change, which means, "The War on Coal." The Democratic primary was just a means to express one's consolation choice for a lot of people there.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)SFnomad said that they were happy it's a closed primary to avoid "operation chaos." A couple other people said that it wasn't real. I was merely pointing out that there do in fact seem to be republicans crossing over to screw with the dem primary now that the republican nominee has been decided. So yes, it's a good thing that the Oregon primary is closed.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I am fully convinced we have plenty of actual Democrats here who enthusiastically support Senator Sanders.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)although I find it surprising.
I suspect it will be closer than that but just Hillary winning is big deal given this was supposed to be one of Bernie's "big" wins.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)to win each state left with at least 65% of the vote, it really doesn't matter. But shhhhhh - we're not supposed to notice math. It upsets people.
still_one
(92,454 posts)but I'll take it
DCBob
(24,689 posts)still_one
(92,454 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I am kind of surprised. I wonder why there is so little info to be had?
karynnj
(59,507 posts)larger sample sizes -- assuming it is well designed. Here, the difference is so large - that, even taking the confidence interval into consideration, she is very likely ahead.
This does differ from conventional wisdom. What it can mean is that many, who earlier might have preferred Bernie and still do, realize that is not happening and want the primaries to end sooner rather than later. (Not to mention, being on the verge of clinching kind of means that HRC has momentum at this point. Part of momentum is likely wanting to be with the winner.)
Renew Deal
(81,882 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)but even if Bernie got the vast majority of them Hillary still wins based on this poll.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)This was supposed to be a "big"...no strike that.. "yuuuuuuge" win for them!
KPN
(15,665 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)KPN
(15,665 posts)Hillary needs to win a couple more states or she is dead meat in the GE. Can she do that? Not in Oregon.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Because anything less puts him even further behind where he needs to be.
And since he's going to lose NJ and DC, it's actually more than 31 points he needs to win by. More like 40 points.
KPN
(15,665 posts)How does a win put him further behind? It can't. He gains on Hillary with a win regardless of the size. However, you are right that it has to be a big one for him to have a chance to overtake her. I'm a realist about that.
I do think though if he runs the table or close in the closing month, many superdelegates will rethink their vote. But again, being a realkist, probably not enough for him to carry the day.
But I'm sticking with my convictions and supporting Bernie all the way. I just can't vote for Hillary and won't in the GE -- I'll write Bernie in instead.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)KPN
(15,665 posts)concerned about Bernie's ability to win Oregon. Of course, there could always be some major shenanigans, but they would pretty much have to be misreported vote counts or lost ballots or discounted ballots (for whatever reason).
WhiteTara
(29,728 posts)KPN
(15,665 posts)Perceive what you will.
I'm not at all concerned about Bernie's ability to win Oregon. Of course, there could always be some major shenanigans, but they would pretty much have to be misreported vote counts or lost ballots or discounted ballots (for whatever reason).
Major shenanigans means someone is messing with the vote. And of course, that implies that the opponent has placed a thumb on the scale. Ergo. the only fair election is if Sanders wins.
KPN
(15,665 posts)Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)It's our secret weapon -- high turnout.
itsrobert
(14,157 posts)When Democrats vote, Hillary wins.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)itsrobert
(14,157 posts)That's around Eugene, Oregon for the "Non-experts" here like me.
My first visit to Oregon was in the 1970's to visit my cousins and Grandparents. Saw Grease as a kid at the a 4 theater multiplex.
First place I saw that did not have the old pull tabs on the soda cans. They had this new push tab. Drank my first Sunkist Orange Soda there.
Currently, I have cousins, brother-in-laws, sister-in-laws, and an aunt that lives there.
I have been back in the Eugene area several times. Visited the coasts, Crater Lake, the falls (parks), and more.
Had my gas tank filled and overfilled by the attendants at at gas stations.
Also, used to watch Little People, Big World.
Shopped at Shopko and Fred Meyer.
Probably will do another trip in August for my wife's HS reunion and Scandinavian Fest.
My wife is a fan of Oregon Football, and I have them as one of my favorite teams.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Anyway, I think you're wrong about the likely primary results, but if not I will gladly admit my error.
Turin_C3PO
(14,087 posts)I've lived in Oregon and I would've guessed the liberals there are more cut out from the Bernie mold. Guess not.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)The key word there is "liberals."
reddread
(6,896 posts)I wouldnt put much faith in them.
I gather this is your gist?
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)So if we have a good "turnout"--i.e. lots of people mail in their ballots--I think Bernie will win.
Anecdotally, I perceive next to no love for Hillary in Portland. I have yet to yard see a sign for her and I've seen maybe two or three bumper stickers. But there are many Bernie signs and bumper stickers, etc.
Renew Deal
(81,882 posts)And she won 60-40.
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)I'm not feeling much support for her in my area, but granted it's hard to tell about other areas and what it will mean in reality.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect Bernie will do better than that but this was supposed to be a big Bernie win. Looks like that's not gonna happen.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)See you next Tuesday!
B Calm
(28,762 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Ground game and a closed primary are both things that give her an advantage. Clinton has won registered or self-identified Democrats (since not every state has registration by party) in every state except for Vermont and New Hampshire, while she managed to tie in Wisconsin. Oregon is a liberal state, but there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who support Hillary Clinton.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)I wrote off OR. I still think that it'll be OR for Sanders and KY for Hillary on Tuesday. I would love to be proven wrong about OR, though.
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)Without Trump supporters screwing with our primaries...Bernie would have lost WVA. Hoping ...fingers crossed for Oregon.
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)Bernie's Trump supporting 'followers' can't help him out. Poor Guy ...yeah not.
notadmblnd
(23,720 posts)coffeeAM
(180 posts)Zambero
(8,974 posts)Unlike the very red states with open primaries where Bernie has done well in his campaign for the nomination, Oregon has lots and lots of actual Democrats.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)which makes it even more meaningless...GOP changing registration in order to vote for Bernie.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)DC, Bob!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Nothing to do with DC.
QC
(26,371 posts)Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)NT
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)which is the town next door, not in Eugene....In 2008 both Hillary and Obama spoke in Eugene, neither in Springfield.
Pretty surprised to see OPB make that mistake, it might sound minor out of the region but it's a rather large error that betrays a lack of area specific knowledge.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)"A Future to Believe In Rally in Eugene/Springfield, Oregon on 4/28"
https://go.berniesanders.com/page/event/detail/rally/gpgfgc
Perhaps you should complain to them first.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)lapfog_1
(29,228 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)I wondered why this thing was up at the top!
dchill
(38,561 posts)Congrats!
grasswire
(50,130 posts)Eat crow, OP.
dchill
(38,561 posts)When I have a bookmark.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)joshcryer
(62,277 posts)AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)is laughable and pathetic! They deserve the harsh language.
joshcryer
(62,277 posts)Stay classy.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)But unfortunately he didn't win it big enough to make any difference.
Logical
(22,457 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)He needed a homerun not a sacrifice fly.
Here's another prediction.. Bernie wont be the Democratic nominee.
That one's guaranteed!