It Is No Longer Inconceivable To Me That President Obama Outperforms His 2008 Numbers

[DemocratSinceBirth]

National Journal Poll: Obama 50, Romney 45

This final Congressional Connection Poll before the Nov. 6 election found that among likely voters, President Obama has reopened a slim advantage over Mitt Romney

The United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,010 adults—including 713 likely voters by cell phone and landline—on Oct. 25-28. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.

Overall, the survey found Obama leading Romney among likely voters by 50 percent to 45 percent, after the two tied at 47 percent each in a late-September Congressional Connection Poll.

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/anger-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031

I thought it was impossible for the president to outperform his 08 numbers for a myriad of reasons but in light of recent developments I am forced to reconsider. His lead will only grow with the Sandy bounce.

Given the demographic changes in the nation this election might portend the end of the Republican party at the national level.

[geek tragedy]

1. I dunno about that--we'd see IN and MO come into play if that were the case.

I think it could be close--winning all of the 2008 states minus Indiana--but Romney has a more fired up base than McLame and better organization than McLame.

[Alekei_Firebird]

2. Wrong. Tea Party will only get crazier and zanier.

If the GOP became more friendly to minorities and women, it would destroy the raison d'être of the modern GOP. It'd be like the Democrats suddenly becoming anti-choice and white supremacist just to stay relevant in American politics. Most Democrats would rather destroy their party than to betray such core principles. It's the same with the GOP, except their "principles" suck.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. That's What I'm Saying

Given the demographic changes in the nation this election might portend the end of the Republican party at the national level.

[Maximumnegro]

5. Nah. The GOP will crush the Tea Party

now that they're taking over the asylum. The GOP put up with them this year because it's election year. I guarantee the GOP will make it a priority to stamp out wingnuts. Chris Christie is the canary. As he goes, so will the GOP establishment.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. In 1976 Their Nominee Was Pro Choice, Pro Affirmative Action, And Pro ERA/nt

[BlueDemKev]

4. You optimism is duly-noted. Thank you.