2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElection Forecast Summaries: 10/31 (morning)
Happy Halloween. I generally don't update this in the morning, but PEC was down for an hour and came back up with some great numbers, and I felt like sharing.
From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.
[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch)
University of Illinois U-C: O 291.6 (unch); p(RE)=94.9% (unch)
Electoral-vote.com: O 280, R 206, T 52 (R-29, T+29)
Huffington Post: O 253, R 206, T 79 (unch)
FiveThirtyEight: O 299 (unch); p(RE)=77.4% (unch)
Princeton: O 318 (+13); p(RE)=95%, 99% (+2%, +1%)
DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=86.66% (unch)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,400!
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)I need to add a footnote to the Princeton numbers explaining the two separate probabilities.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Response to Chichiri (Reply #5)
barnabas63 This message was self-deleted by its author.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...at the 10:00 A.M. report:
EV
Obama 318
Romney 220
Meta-margin
Obama +2.60
Re-election odds
Random Drift 95%
Bayesian Prediction 99%
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)NOW what do I do?