Real Math: Only 292 pledged delegate difference!

[amborin]

Real math: Bernie is now 292 pledged delegates behind Hillary — and the NY lawsuits are still underway.

On Saturday, Bernie Sanders cut into Hillary Clinton’s Democratic delegate lead, picking up 49 of the 67 delegates awarded at Washington state's Democratic convention, while Clinton won the Guam caucus.

2016 Primary Delegate Count
Clinton Sanders
Delegates 1705 1415
Superdelegates 523 39
Totals 2,228 1,454

There are 4,765 total delegates at stake. To avoid a contested convention, Clinton must obtain at least 2,383 of those delegates. Our mission is to ensure Hillary doesn't receive more than 678 of the total pledged delegate votes going forward.

Today, May 10th, 29 pledged delegates are at stake in West Virginia. And it looks like Sanders could be on the verge of another victory. A poll puts him 8 points ahead of Democratic front-runner Clinton. So lets flip this State against Clinton!

[SFnomad]

1. In 2008, Clinton was NEVER even close to this far behind Obama ...

She didn't have a chance then, BS doesn't have a chance now.

[still_one]

2. Do you understand the concept of proportional delegates?

[firebrand80]

3. LOL @ "contested convention" nt

[Tarc]

4. That's a lot of misrepresntation, bordering on deception, packed into one post

The New York lawsuits are effectively done with, as the board has voted to certify the results. Those with provisional ballots that they feel were wrongly turned away will have to petition in-person, individually.

There is no "contested convention" if neither candidate reaches 2,383 before the convention, you and your associates really need to stop distorting this. Clinton will enter the convention with ~2,160 (and that's a low estimate). As most of the superdelegates have endorsed her, and the standard practice is for the superdelegates to vote for the candidate who secured the most pledged delegates anyways, they will almost certainly not flip and hop to Sanders. If Sanders had wound up with the most pledged delegates, I fully expected the supers to jump to him, as they did in 2008 for Obama.

Also, the superdelgates vote with their state, there is no "second round", as some Sanders fans seem to think, where they'll have a magical chance to make a last pitch to the supers.

[CrowCityDem]

5. Um, an 8 point, hell even a 20 point win tonight is a loss. Makes Bernie's path that much harder.

[Blue Meany]

6. I doubt that Sanders will benefit from the lawsuit in NYC, as

this seems to have hurt her more than him. But Arizona clearly hurt him.

[synergie]

7. So the NY lawsuit you're pinning your hopes on? One has been dismissed and any others

do nothing for Bernie, since they're about Democrats who were erroneously purged, and Democrats overwhelmingly go for Hillary and not Bernie, which is why all this outrage about limiting Democratic primaries to people registered as Dems.

2,383 is amount she'd need with PD and SD. So it's just wrong to state that she needs this number BEFORE the convention. The number is 2026 for a majority for only PDs.


(I'm just going to use your numbers here, since you seem to be having issues with understanding the math and numbers seem to be confusing you here, we'll keep it simple)

She's got 1705, she needs 321 pledged delegates for 2,026.

He's got 1415, he needs 611 to reach 2,026

With PD+SD the number is 2,383.

She's got 2228, she needs 155 total delegates to reach 2,383.

He's got 1454, he needs 929 to reach 2,383.

There will be no contested convention.


Even by your terrible math skills, she reaches the higher number you set for her, with ease.

You forget about proportional distribution of delegates here, and if you wish to wail about that, then you should realize that it's the only reason Bernie is still alive here, because if it was winner take all, she'd have already won by now.

Your polls don't show any hope or prayer that he can win, there is no path.

He'll win WVa, it's mostly white and even the Dems don't like Obama, Bernie should be winning here by large margins, despite his actual policies on coal, which are the opposite of what he's telling people. WVa will vote against their best interests, they've been doing that for some time, but it won't help Bernie's failed campaign, the REAL math is against him.

[SidDithers]

8. "Only"...

Sid

[leftynyc]

9. First - New York has been certified

Second - any other resolution with NY would have had Hillary win by even more. She cleaned up in the boroughs.

[Octafish]

10. Gee. Very different story without the ''Superdelegates''

Explains all the S-U-R-R-E-N-D-E-R---B-E-R-N-I-E "math" posts we've been havin', though.

[beachbumbob]

11. Math still doesn't work...but keep trying

[AzDar]

12. K & R