So, on a scale of 1-10, how confident are you about next Tuesday?

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

With 10 being certain of an Obama re-election, and 1 being a sense that we're doomed.

I put myself at about a 6 - It's closer than I'd prefer, but the electoral college polling has me optimistic.

[TexasCPA]

1. 7

[HereSince1628]

7. 6

The WI recall eroded my capacity for confidence.


We need feet that stand in voting booths.

[leftylauren]

41. My memory is failing me but wasn't Walker always a few points ahead in the polls leading up to that

election? I most of us were being overly optimistic trying to read something into those polls that wasn't there.

I think Obama has the polls (electoral college) on his side and it's the other side that is being overly optimistic this time around. Just my two cents.

[BlueDemKev]

74. Yes, Walker consistently led throughout the recall campaign last spring

[DemocratSinceBirth]

86. The Final RCP Average Showed Walker Beating Barrett by 6.6%/nt

The polls were off a whopping. 1/10 of a percent.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

64. Don't forget though

that a lot people weren't necessarily voting FOR Walker, they were voting AGAINST the recall itself. They had a poll out right after that recall that most people were still going to vote for President Obama. While that number has, of course, tightened, it is promising that the defeat of the recall wasn't necessarily an endorsement of Walker let alone Republicans.

[madaboutharry]

2. 10

[Ter]

6. Don't ever say 10

Major jinx, unless you're 15 points ahead.

[madaboutharry]

42. I don't believe in jinxes.

[Ter]

48. OK, but how can you be so sure?

I'm just nervous still.

[madaboutharry]

73. Don't be, it's going to be ok!

You'll see! Jinxes, hexes, evil spells, voodoo, and whatever is just mumbo jumbo. The only thing that determines an election is the number of people who vote for each candidate.

Obama is gonna win!

[Maximumnegro]

108. Karl Rove is GONNA GET YOU

BOO!

[flowomo]

3. 6 feels right, for now

too much conflicting info out there to be more optimistic, or pessimistic

[MichiganVote]

4. 10

[WI_DEM]

5. 9.999

[mucifer]

8. Having Gov Christie campaigning for President Obama sure is nice!

I'd say 9 out of 10.

[krawhitham]

24. +1

[Floyd_Gondolli]

9. 7

Sandy has muddied the water a bit. But I like what I see from our president.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. 10

As confident as I was that the Miami Heat would be the 2011-2012 NBA Champions and Team USA would win Gold at the Olympics. Not a doubt in my mind.

I would bet my liver to a Trump million.

[AndyA]

11. 7 - 8 if not for fear of election fraud

Private corporations with GOP-leaning ownership developed and built so many of the voting machines in use. If not for that, I'd feel a lot better than I do, but I still think Obama will win because I keep telling myself people really are NOT that stupid.

(Then they prove me wrong!) (Again.)

Edit for correct smilie.

[renate]

82. me too n/t

[rug]

12. 8

[still_one]

13. 10

[Maximumnegro]

14. 11 - if that's not obvious by now...

[TheCowsCameHome]

15. 6

I wish it was higher, but..........

[Summer Hathaway]

16. My confidence meter

goes up to 11. And it's been at 11 since before the re-election process even started.

[phleshdef]

17. About 7.29

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[TDale313]

18. 8.

Be higher if I weren't concerned about Repug dirty tricks/election fraud. But my gut says Obama's gonna win big.

[Alekei_Firebird]

19. 8

OH's nearly a lock by now. Therefore, Obama's nearly a lock for re-election.

[chadnky]

20. I'm at an 8

The president has the advantage in the states he needs to win.

[octoberlib]

21. I'll say 9

[krawhitham]

22. 8

[mil_5529dem]

23. 6.5

I really can't wait until it's over.

[angrychair]

25. 10

10 10 10 10

[hrmjustin]

26. 9.99999999999999999999 oh hell 10!

[SingleSeatBiggerMeat]

27. 9......

Because even Romney and Eddie can't put together a 270 EV map...and it's a week out.

[GeorgeGist]

28. Since Global warming is irrelevant ...

I'd say that Obama's re-election (10) won't offset the doom (0).

[demOcrat11]

29. 10

Only because im being naive about politics at this moment in time.

[Angry Dragon]

30. 6

[Pisces]

31. 9.9999

[underpants]

32. Nate Silver has calculated that I am an 8.9

[leftylauren]

33. 8.5

[tularetom]

34. 7-3/8

Just pulled that out of my hat

[kerouac2]

35. 6 - I just don't trust the machines...

I can't see them letting Obama win ohio -- or any close state where they have their machines.

[Phx_Dem]

52. we dont "need" OH or FL which are easiest for them to manipulate.

We are in good shape to win w/o OH even though we will win it if they don't rig the machines. I don't think they can steal it this time.

[kerouac2]

112. I mention Ohio specifically because of the guarantee they made awhile back.

I think they're setting their sights on stealing several states to give Romney a bigger "victory," including Ohio. A few hundred thousand flipped votes here and there using their machines, without any accountability or solid proof of wrongdoing. These guys are brazen. Look at their campaign - who would ever think a candidate and campaign built entirely on lies would be in this position. You would think that at some point a candidate should be disqualified for being a cheater... but there are no ref's. Even when their guys get caught destroying voter registrations, they get off... it's shameful.

[morningfog]

36. 11

[demwing]

77. Why not just 10?

[davidn3600]

37. Cautiously optimistic....so I guess 6

[tweeternik]

38. 9.5

[WestSeattle2]

39. An easy 9 - thanks to Nate!

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

40. 8.5

[Fresh_Start]

43. 6 for POTUS, 7 for Senate, 3 for House

but I'm hoping for a happy surprise in the house

[helpisontheway]

44. 6 nt

[MFM008]

45. 8

period

[Hoyt]

46. 6.7. But, a lot can happen that swings vote.

[LiberalElite]

47. 6

[Phx_Dem]

49. 9.

But still nervous because its SO IMPORTANT.

[BlueDemKev]

50. 6.

I'm hoping upon hope we are able to pull thru in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada while holding onto to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota (which we should). I have NO faith in the voters from Florida or Virginia, and Colorado and Iowa are neck-and-neck.

GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

[struggle4progress]

51. Confident enough to knock doors daily trying to GOTV

[cdb]

53. 5-7

A solid six. Obama wins but not by a fucking mandate

[BlueMan Votes]

54. i like pi.

3.1416.

[blue-kite]

55. I'd say a 7 to 8... more towards 8. Even RCP has O/B winning.

[WCGreen]

56. About 8.5....

[PlanetBev]

57. Seems to be holding at 6.5

I'm feeling that Obama might get a boost in the last week, as he is his usual calm, assured self in the face of the east coast crisis.

[trixie]

58. 4

I just don't know. Too many stupid UAW pals are more racist then bright.

[Lucinda]

59. 11

[Proud Liberal Dem]

60. 8-9

I like the polling in most of the swing states and some of the reports regarding early voting, particularly in Ohio. I'm still a little anxious about what shenanigans the Repubs might pull out at the last minute that *might* tip the scales to Romney, as well as this "True the Vote" teabagger group that's supposed to be flooding urban (read: minority) polling places with their minions to mess up the works. Hopefully, they get kicked out or not even allowed to enter in the first place. How what they are planning to do is remotely legal is beyond me.


Overall, I'm pretty optimistic that President Obama will pull off a decent margin of victory. He's got so many routes to 270 EV that Romney would have to be doing much better at this late stage to pull off one of his narrow routes to victory. I just can't envision a total Obama collapse on Election Night and Romney upset. I just can't- absent some serious and widespread vote manipulation. I also don't believe that it will be close enough to trigger a contested election either. My map at 270towin.com, based on current polling averages on TPM suggest around 303 EV: http://www.270towin.com/

[DCBob]

61. 9.9

My only fear is our side may not show up in the numbers we need.

[Ikonoklast]

63. From the looks of early voting , I don't think you can stop them from showing up.

They'll be there, they see what happened last time they sat on their hands.

Four More Years.

[Maximumnegro]

109. Wow have you just ignored all the EV over the

past couple weeks? LOL. FL, IA, NC, NV did not get the chicken little memo.

[DCBob]

111. Did you ignore the 9.9??

Im just saying if I have any tiny doubt at all... its turnout. We Dems often have a problem with that.

[sofa king]

118. There is something else to worry about....

Mitt Romney is a sociopath and if he's set up the criminal half of his operation properly, there is a line of cut-outs between him and the election thieves I think he is contacting this week by visiting "lost" states.

The smart play at this point would be to contact the election thieves and tell them to back off this time, so that their efforts are not statistically identifiable.

But Mitt isn't smart like that. This is the closest he's ever going to get to the White House, and if he's properly insulated, he personally risks nothing by coercing bought election officials into trying to flip a landslide.

With no personal risk, Romney will be inclined to do what's best for himself, since he doesn't actually care about anyone else. Sociopaths never lack audacity, or contempt for the law.

We have to expect this dishonest, malevolent candidate to behave dishonestly and malevolently. That's the part that worries me.

[RomneyLies]

62. 11

Obama is gonna mop the floor with Romney.

[Sunlei]

65. 10+ for President Obama & I pray his surge knocks people like Bachmann right off their damn thrones

[doc03]

66. 4 Obama won't carry Ohio, I hope a couple other sates can put him over. n/t

[BlueDemKev]

76. Why do you feel Obama won't win Ohio?

I realize Ohio isn't a done deal by any means, but why do you feel Obama can't win the state?

[doc03]

78. The manufacturing areas of the state have been decimated over

the last 40 plus years most have lost more than half their population. Labor unions have also been decimated and I also sense a lot more enthusiasm for the anti-Obama vote than for Obama. Cleveland was the largest city in Ohio a few decades ago now Columbus is twice its size. Cincinnati and Dayton are Republican strongholds. I hope I am wrong, I didn't think Obama would carry Ohio the last time but we were facing another great depression then too..

[BlueDemKev]

97. Damn....Ohio really is a must-win for us.

I mean, yes, I know we can still get to 270 without Ohio, but it will be a VERY tall order. We need to try very hard with our GOTV efforts in Ohio and secure its 18 electoral votes.

[obamanut2012]

67. 8.5

[budkin]

68. 7

Still worried about vote flipping

[SEMOVoter]

69. I feel like a 7.5

Only because I'm cautious.

[Third Doctor]

70. At present 6. 7

We have a high quality candidate in the President but they are lot of voter who are blind to that.

[quaker bill]

71. 8+

[johnnyrocket]

72. 10, a freaking 10. I suppose if I'm wrong, I will be very, very shocked.

[ncav53]

75. 10

[Zoeisright]

79. 9

[reflection]

80. "We go to eleven."

No seriously, about a 7.

On edit: great minds think alike

[NEDem]

81. 6

[smackd]

83. 9

I feel good

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. I'm As Confident O Will Win As I Was Confident My Heat Would Slap Around The Celtics

In the season opener:

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=400277722

[ChangeUp106]

85. 9

A 9 because of the electoral college. Without it, a 6.

[Posteritatis]

87. I'm feeling nine points of confidence about 303-235.

Call it a seven for the Senate, and a 404 for the House since I haven't been following the polling at that level (though I'm nervous about it).

[cecilfirefox]

88. 6.5, cautiously optimistic, but still nervous enough to be taking the ativan tuesday(no lie. :( )

[faithfulcitizen]

89. 8

[sofa king]

90. 9.8

This fix is always in when Republicans are around, but they're not close enough to steal it and they'll go to jail forever if they try. You can't flip a landslide.

So the election thieves are going to back off this time, resulting in unexpected success.

And the bad guys will have pissed away a billion dollars, too.

[flamingdem]

91. 8.8

[sakabatou]

92. In my state 10. Nationwide... I dunno.

[courseofhistory]

93. 10 n/t

[smitra]

94. 8

[Drunken Irishman]

95. 9

[Rowdyboy]

96. 8

[SLCLiberal]

98. A pitiful

5.

If Obama wins it will be by 15-20 points.

[trouble.smith]

99. 5- polls are not encouraging.

[Bleacher Creature]

100. Huh?? The state polling has been especially strong lately.

Almost universally good news. Other than the meaningless national polls, things look positive.

[trouble.smith]

104. The states that matter look pretty close to me-Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

close enough that I have to rate my confidence as a 5-neither optimistic nor pessimistic, just of the belief that this could go either way. I think Romney currently has the momentum too. Obama is best when he has a strong head of steam propelling him forward and I'm not seeing that right now. I think Romney has offensive momentum going into the final week and that's not really a position you want your opponent in at this stage of the game.

[NCLefty]

101. 7ish.

Which is a lot better than 3ish that I give Romney

[Tree-Hugger]

102. 8.24

It's good numerology.

[rayofreason]

103. 4+

In the past few weeks I've been driving around NH, OH, NC, and FL (work trips). Seen a lot more Romney signs in yards than Obama signs. Not a scientific sample by any means, but combined with the newest from Gallup (especially early voting)

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

there is real reason for concern.

[TheSlayer]

105. Ridiculous

I suggest you go read Nate Silver on why Gallup is irrelevant...and stupid.

I trust Nate more than I trust anyone out there.

.....and only seeing Romney signs means not one damned thing except that with all the threats and violence coming from the right, a lot of Obama supporters, particularly ones with kids or pets, are not putting their signs up.

My number is 10.

I also think we aren't the only ones who learned from what happened to Gore. To assume Obama will ALLOW this election to be stolen from him is to assume he is naive and powerless and I do not think that about him. I think he is smart and crafty and used to dealing with stupid crooked assed white people. We have the DOJ, the UN, the AFL-CIO have said they will have 1000s of people on the ground and the ACLU...and we have our own computer geeks.

Hand wringing...blech. I think I will change my number to 11.

[rayofreason]

110. "threats and violence"

By the way, do you know of anyone who is collecting a catalog of verified acts of violence, threats and vandalism against Obama supporters? I think that it would be a very good project to undertake so that a factual record can be presented.

Regarding the rest of your post, I guess we will see in a few days.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

114. Bedwetters/nt

[mzmolly]

106. 5

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

107. Thanks for playing, folks

thought it would be interesting to take the temperature of this place, and see where it stood vs. my own level of confidence

[JiminyJominy]

113. I'm Around

Where Intrade is...

6.5ish.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

115. ... 8....... nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

116. I Have Called Every Presidential Election Since 68 Right And I'm Giving Obama A 10/nt

[anijh]

117. I'm at an 8. nt.

[mvd]

119. 8, and could grow even higher

Love how the swing state polls have been looking. The past few days have eased my worry.