Hillary +28 in New Jersey

[ericson00]

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d689fc25-56ed-482b-bbb8-edbd9e49a6e2.pdf

Coming off a bitter defeat in Indiana, Hillary Clinton is in position to get
a healthy dose of Garden State love when the primary season ends in June. The Monmouth University
Poll gives Clinton a nearly 2-to-1 lead in New Jersey’s primary. The poll also finds that most Democratic
voters feel that picking Sen. Cory Booker as her running mate wouldn’t give her campaign much of a
strategic advantage.
Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanders’s support
stands at 32%. Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including
voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white
voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%). The only group where Sanders is competitive is among
Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton

[Human101948]

1. By the time the primary takes place that lead will evaporate...

As will her lead over Trump when the General Election gears up. There has been a disturbing pattern of diminishing leads that could spell disaster in November.

[Scurrilous]

2. K & R

[pat_k]

3. What a bizarre poll. It ignores that NJ is effectively an Open primary.

Why in heavens name would Monmouth poll just "likely Democratic voters."

Unaffiliated can vote in the primary in NJ.

Here's the voter registration breakdown. As of 11/30/2015

2,605,919 Unaffiliated
1,747,551 Democrat
1,058,277 Republican
4,816 Other

In other words, there are 50% more independents than Democrats in the state. Might be a good idea to include them in the poll.

[oasis]

4. K and R

[pat_k]

5. From a pollster that did it right (included unaffiliated)

Wait for the next Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. They include unaffiliated, and are therefore more accurate. From the poll they did last month:

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead Vermont
Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination but – for the first time – only by single digits, 51 percent (down four points) to 42 percent (up 10 points). Democratic-leaning independents appear to be fueling Sanders’ momentum, with just over half of this group choosing the Vermont senator. Confirmed Democrats, on the other hand, firmly support Clinton, at 57 percent.

“The preferences of unaffiliated voters could be an important factor in the primary,” said
Koning. “New Jerseyans who have not yet declared a party affiliation may do so at the polls on primary day, and those who want to switch parties could have done so up until just a few days ago.”

[Lucinda]

6. KNR Thank you!

[B Calm]

7. Poll conducted by The Sopranos.

[workinclasszero]

8. Nice!

[NurseJackie]

9. That's the type of advantage Bernie needs in ALL states ...

... going forward to even hope to have a chance at being competitive. He has no chance.

SURRENDER BERNIE.

[Adrahil]

10. Yup, and they still don't get it.

So many think he just needs to win states and he'll get the nomination! He needs to win every state like Hillary won Maryland. It's totally delusional.

They forget that Obama lost 9 of the last 12 states in 2008.

[Jitter65]

11. All she needs to do is to win or lose within 10 points. nt