New New Jersey Poll (Monmouth): Clinton 60 - Sanders 32

[brooklynite]

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d689fc25-56ed-482b-bbb8-edbd9e49a6e2.pdf

Clinton has the support of 60% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey while Sanders’s support
stands at 32%. Clinton holds a lead among nearly every demographic group in the electorate, including
voters age 50 and older (70% to 25%), voters under 50 (51% to 38%), black voters (64% to 24%), white
voters (60% to 34%), and women (69% to 22%). The only group where Sanders is competitive is among
Democratic men, earning 45% to 49% for Clinton.

“Despite her loss in Indiana, it looks like Clinton is on target to corral the delegates she needs for
the nomination. New Jersey is shaping up to make a significant contribution to her final total,” said
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

[Jitter65]

1. If NJ really wants to help in the fight against DT. they will make that margin even greater.

We need to end this stuff as soon as possible so we can focus on the Donald and the rest of the GOP.

[CrowCityDem]

2. As expected. Bernie CANNOT flip NJ and CA by the amounts he needs.

[Beacool]

3. I have no doubt that Hillary will win my state handily.

I expect similar results as in NY.

[Dawgs]

4. Agree. She's very similar to Christie. n/t

[Beacool]

5. Get on that bicycle and ride into the sunset.

[DCBob]

6. NJ will be a bit like MD and PA.

ie.. big win for Hillary!

[pat_k]

10. Unlike MD and PA unaffiliated voters can vote in NJ.

The poll is a little bizarre in that it's limited to "likely Democratic voters."

Here's the voter registration breakdown as of 11/30/2015

2,605,919 Unaffiliated
1,747,551 Democrat
1,058,277 Republican
4,816 Other

In other words, there are 50% more independents than Democrats in the state. I would guess that a substantial number of them will be voting in the Democratic primary. Might be a good idea to include them in polling.

I wouldn't be making any bets on a win either way.

[Scurrilous]

7. Kick

[CorkySt.Clair]

8. But wait until the voters in NJ get to know Bernie

When that happens Bernie wins.

[NurseJackie]

13. Oh, you! :-P

[pat_k]

9. Bizarre poll. It ignores that NJ is effectively an Open primary.

Given that unaffiliated can vote in the primary in NJ, limiting polling to "likely Democratic voters" is just bizarre.

Here's the voter registration breakdown. As of 11/30/2015

2,605,919 Unaffiliated
1,747,551 Democrat
1,058,277 Republican
4,816 Other

In other words, there are 50% more independents than Democrats in the state. Might be a good idea to include them in the poll.

[pat_k]

11. deleted

[pat_k]

12. From a pollster that does it right (includes unaffiliated)

Wait for the next Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. They include unaffiliated, and are therefore more accurate. From the poll they did last month:

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead Vermont
Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination but – for the first time – only by single digits, 51 percent (down four points) to 42 percent (up 10 points). Democratic-leaning independents appear to be fueling Sanders’ momentum, with just over half of this group choosing the Vermont senator. Confirmed Democrats, on the other hand, firmly support Clinton, at 57 percent.

“The preferences of unaffiliated voters could be an important factor in the primary,” said
Koning. “New Jerseyans who have not yet declared a party affiliation may do so at the polls on primary day, and those who want to switch parties could have done so up until just a few days ago.”