Here is why it's mathematically impossible for Bernie to win with pledged delegates.

[pnwmom]

And why he's hammering on the idea of getting super-delegates away from Hillary, even though most come from states that supported her.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/math-says-bernie-sanders-is-finished-222775

There’s one more reason for Bernie Sanders focus his energy on winning over super delegates — it's now mathematically impossible for him to reach the magic number for the Democratic nomination by winning the remaining pledged delegates alone.

Here's how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and superdelegates to his name, according to the Associated Press' count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.

The remaining contests, however — Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia — only have 933 pledged delegates to offer.

So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn't make it past the mark.

[Ash_F]

1. That is not what the article says.

He would need a simple majority of pledged delegates to get the superdelegates to flip like in 2008.

[pnwmom]

6. And that isn't possible either. He's not going to win 67% across the board. n/t

[Ash_F]

7. Improbable.

[pnwmom]

8. Yeah, it's improbable he'll win the lottery, too. This is on that level. n/t

[Ash_F]

10. So you are telling me there's a chance?

[pnwmom]

11. Right. A snowball's chance. n/t

[Hiraeth]

23. I will take that snowball's chance.

[LuvLoogie]

17. I kind of did a quick analysis of what he needs based on 538's numbers.

I added adjusted targets to get to 2026 pledged delegates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1895203

[Ash_F]

18. So 65% huh?

A tall order.

[LuvLoogie]

19. Yeah. It is.

[thesquanderer]

2. Yes, mathematically impossible for him to win with pledged delegates.

Hillary's not going to win with pledged delegates either. Either one of them is going to need super delegates to get over the threshold. Though unless there is some kind of seismic shift around the corners, it's Hillary who's going to get the lion's share of them.

[PATRICK]

13. If Sanders "wins"

the non super count they must hand him pen and paper and let him right the platform and future primary reforms. If he arrives with a thunderous crowd of national delegates they must hand him a pencil and paper and work with him to write a platform. If they deny him at all except for fluff he obviously will not accept- nor could he betray his supporters- then instead of a united party there will be hell to pay. With the number he has now he has the power and the will to blow off anything less than what he has been honestly committed to since the beginning.

The blowing of smoke by the the submission tempters is just that. Postponing the real reckoning and strengthening their weakening hand in this regard.

[Iliyah]

16. LOL, thank the heavens that's a myth!

[dchill]

3. What, you don't want to blockquote a few graphs...

to illustrate your bullshit point? If Hillary is the presumptive nominee, why worry?

Oh, it's a little early for that. Maybe a lot early.

[dchill]

5. OK. Thanks.

Still bullshit. Still too early.

[bkkyosemite]

4. Matmatically impossible for Hillary to win with pledged delegates.

[Cheese Sandwich]

9. Your math skills suck.

[snowy owl]

12. 1. who cares 2. we already know the math cuz y'all ost it over and over and over...

We aren't in it for the math. Get over it.

[kcjohn1]

14. How can it be mathetically impossible if Bernie wins by getting 65% of remaining pledged delegates?

What you are trying to say I think is its improbable.

[morningfog]

15. Well which is it? Will the supers follow the pledged winner or not?

[pnwmom]

21. Either way he loses. He can't be the pledged winner, so he won't get them that way.

And he doesn't have enough supers to overcome her advantage with them either.

[Hiraeth]

24. you are talking in circles.

[pnwmom]

25. That's because I'm following his reasoning. It IS circular. You've figured that out, at least. n/t

[Hiraeth]

28. You are trying to rationalize it to suit your agenda.

[rhett o rick]

20. In Washington the State the Democrats overwhelmingly support Sanders. But the Super-Duper

delegates that you cherish support Clinton. Why you ask? Because the DNC has the hammer. The DNC will help or not help down ballot candidates if they support Clinton. This is the corrupt culture we are fighting. The Culture of big money buying our government. Well the Clinton supporters chose to side with the Big Money Fat Cats because winning is more important than helping those among us struggling. Goldman-Sachs profits are more important than helping the 2.5 million American children that are homeless. Profits for the big corporations is more important. Shame.

[pnwmom]

22. In WA the tiny percent of caucus attendees strongly supported Bernie.

We haven't had the more inclusive primary yet.

[rhett o rick]

26. So do you think the Super-Duper delegate systeme is democratic?

Or is it a process designed to keep progressives out?

[imagine2015]

27. It's impossible for Secretary Clinton to win the nomination with pledged delegates.

Unless you think Bernie won't win any more primaries. And that won't happen.

Isn't that right?

[pnwmom]

31. But she's got hundreds of super delegates, which she has always counted.

Bernie's the one who's been saying they shouldn't count. Till he changed his mind and said they should count -- but only as long as they pick him.

All she needs is half of the total of pledged and super delegates to win in the first ballot. In any combination. That's how it works, under the long-established rules.

[basselope]

29. No one is going to win with pledged delegates, that is why it will be a contested convention.

[pnwmom]

30. Since she will have a majority of pledged it will not be contested. She will win in the first ballot

because all of her supers will stick with her.

[basselope]

32. It is a contested convention until after that ballot.

Sorry, but #demdarules.

[pnwmom]

34. No, by definition it's not a contested convention unless no one gets a 1st ballot win. n/t

[basselope]

37. If no one has a majority of the pledged delegates the convention is contested

[Recursion]

35. "Contested" means the first ballot doesn't pick a winner

At least in the sense the term is usually used. You can't have a contested or brokered convention with two candidates.

[basselope]

36. If no one has a majority of the pledged delegates the convention is contested

[Bangbangdem]

33. It's a con, I tells ya.

Hahaha!

[Lil Missy]

38. But, that's not Bernie Math. Bernie Logic says he will win. (or already won.)

You know, because ,.... because we learned it on the DU. Bernie already won. We, (HRC supporters) are just scared, and shaking in our boots.