Putting some numbers on Bernie's path to the nomination

[Buzz Clik]

Last edited Sun May 1, 2016, 03:41 PM - Edit history (1)

Because the superdelegates tend to annoy a certain dominant group here at DU, we'll consider ONLY pledged delegates. Here are the numbers Sanders needs from each remaining primary/caucus to pull off a victory. My projections are not random, but follow some guidelines: 1) HRC doesn't win another state; 2) Any primary favoring HRC (IN, CA, NJ) is flipped in favor of Sanders; 3) Sanders will win all other primaries/caucuses by a minimum of 10% with open primaries being 80/20 romps for Sanders. Minor adjustments are made to account for demographics, etc. Here are the % votes for Sanders:

IN: 55%
Guam: 55%
WV: 74%
KY: 55%
OR: 55%
Virgin Islands: 55%
Puerto Rico: 55%
CA: 70%
MT: 82%
NJ: 55%
NM: 64%
ND: 82%
SD: 75%
Wash DC: 55%

If he can meet these metrics (note the blowout in CA currently favoring Clinton), he wins the pledged delegates by 1.

[pmorlan1]

1. I see you've used the new

Clinton logo. I preferred the one Barrack showed.

[Buzz Clik]

2. not playing.

[SFnomad]

3. LOL ... this thread is in the wrong place, it should be in the comedy forum n/t

[Buzz Clik]

4. You probably found the error in my calculation.

Rather than needing a 65/35 win in CA and a 52/48 win in NJ, he needs 70/30 in CA and 55/45 in NJ.

My bad.



(is there a comedy forum at DU? I don't think so, but I guess you haven't been here very long -- only 8 years. Welcome to DU! )

[SFnomad]

5. It's called the 'Humor' Group

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1198

And this thread would fit there ... being that it's a joke.

But I suppose you haven't been here very long either ... only 13 years. Welcome yourself.

[Buzz Clik]

6. Why don't you let us in on the joke.

[SunSeeker]

11. Maybe he/she thinks Sanders getting 55% of the vote in DC is pretty funny.

I mean, it is so ludicrous that it is kinda funny.

[lamp_shade]

7. Kick

[IamMab]

8. Kind of ironic how important Guam is to Bernie's comeback chances. Is Tim Robbins a prophet? nt

ETA:

[Stuckinthebush]

9. Wait a minute!

[Buzz Clik]

10. Yep. Same chance as Lloyd.

[George II]

12. Even more simply stated, to achieve a majority of pledged delegates....

....Sanders will need to get an average of 65% of the delegates in all remaining states. Any time he doesn't get at least 65% of the vote in a state, he will need an even HIGHER average for all the other states.

That means that he will essentially have to win EACH of the remaining states by 30% (65%-35%)

Putting that into perspective, of the 18 states that Sanders has won, he's gotten 65% or more in only 8 of them.

[Buzz Clik]

13. I started this back just prior to the March 26 primaries.

I was trying to see if Sanders had even a shadow of a chance under the most extreme circumstances. Your approach is a bit more general but every bit as accurate.

[George II]

14. As each week progresses, the available delegates dwindles and the lead grows, making this...

....easier and easier to figure.

Once Clinton reaches 2026 (which she will), I want to see what they say then. Still a contested convention? HAH!

[Buzz Clik]

16. Their reaction will be quite predictable: steal the supers, and claim foul at every turn.

Till the bitter end.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You have to control for size.

[fleabiscuit]

15. How do you math in the projected SD's threats and harassment?

[Buzz Clik]

17. It predicts that the Sanders crew will never let up.