PA +3, Ohio +5, FL Tied - Pharos Research Group

[krawhitham]

Never heard of them

PA
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111056294/Pennsylvania-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012

OH
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111056286/Ohio-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012

FL
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111056290/Florida-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012

[Doctor Jack]

1. Why does it seem like anyone with $50 and a website can start a polling company these days?

I think there are now 2.1 pollsters for every person in this country now

[Fringe]

13. lol, $50 and a website!

So, true!

[Maximumnegro]

19. Don't forget the blow. Lots and lots of blow (Gravis).

[Jennicut]

2. I think their PA and OH #'s are backward!

But I looked at their internals. Tied in Dems and Repubs in voter ID in the OH poll and Dems ahead by more then 6 in the PA poll but OH is better then PA? Head scratching there. But I will take the OH #.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I'll take it.

Crazy he's doing better in Ohio than Pennsylvania, tho. I don't buy that.

[DarthDem]

4. Sounds Good to Me

We all know PA isn't in play, so I'll take the other two numbers.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. Oh, by all means, Romney should start airing ads and campaigning in PA

While he's at it, maybe New Jersey.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Don't forget Minnesota!

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Multiple millions should be piped into the Twin Cities market

Immediately!

[regnaD kciN]

7. These seem off to me...

If I were running a 538-style analysis, I'd rank brand-new pollsters down in weighting, or maybe even exclude them altogether, until they had shown reliability in at least one recent Presidential cycle.

[krawhitham]

8. PA is really +3.94 in this poll

Rounding got the best of us in this poll

49.47% to 49
45.53% to 45

We got the better in OH
OH is 4.69
49.88% to 50
45.19% to 45

FL is +0.13
46.77%
46.64%

[RBInMaine]

10. Obama is further ahead than that in PA. So that one is crapola.

[krawhitham]

17. RCP AVG is +4.7, so 3.94 is within reason. But this poll did under weigh woman (50.79%)

[ProSense]

20. Here's an easy gauge:

When a pollster tries to show that Obama is doing better in OH than in PA, it's likely bullshit.

Translation:

PA +3 = Mitt is losing

Ohio +5 = Mitt is losing

FL Tied = Mitt is losing

[aaaaaa5a]

9. I would love to jump up and down with excitement, but I have never heard of these guys.

If these polls had Romney ahead it would be easy to dismiss these polls. I think we need to stick to the more recognized pollsters who have a track record.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. The fact their OH poll jives with others, though, indicates they might be right.

If all the other Ohio polls had Obama losing and this one had him up, I'd agree with you.

[flowomo]

14. Kos has a whole story on Pharos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149720/-What-s-the-deal-with-Pharos-Research-Group

[aaaaaa5a]

16. Good info. Thank you. nt

[Maximumnegro]

18. The important thing is Nate's numbers will shoot up

and since so many people are zomg fixated on Nate that will have a big effect.

[TroyD]

21. This firm seems in the general ballpark

Their Ohio numbers match those of others (eg. TIME, CNN, PPP) and the PA number, while a little low, is not that far off some of the others showing a closer PA race.

And a poll show FL Tied is also good for Obama and in line with some of the others (eg. PPP, Rasmussen) showing a tightening of the race.

[WI_DEM]

22. I like the Ohio numbers, PA seems low, but the polls are a week old.