EARTH TO GALLUP

[Left Coast2020]

http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/14226-focus-earth-to-gallup

There are two snapshots of the polling right now. One of them comes from Rasmussen and Gallup, which show a clear lead for Romney; the other comes from all the other polling organizations that show a slight Obama lead. Rasmussen, a firm headed by a committed partisan Republican, whose polls are the basis of countless polling quotes from the Republican blogosphere, has nonetheless been removed from Fox News' polling unit, which tells you something. Even Fox News doesn't trust him. And they shouldn't.

[duggie99]

1. politico,com

Do they lean more Republican? Seems like they do.

[left on green only]

2. One thing I can assure you about the folks at Politico.......

They sure as hell don't serve left wings at their employee barbeques.

Welcome to DU duggie99.

[WI_DEM]

3. Daily Kos had a diary where somebody said Brit Hume said on Fox that Politco poll will have...

Romney up by 5 points in a poll released tomorrow.

[FBaggins]

4. Triple hearsay?

True or not, I suppose the underlying point is more important.

It isn't correct to pretend that this is simply a case of two pollsters against "all the other polling organizations". We can't just ignore polling firms that we don't like (a list that appears to change from day to day depending on what numbers they report).

The more accurate description is that there is a disconnect between the national polls and the state-by-state polling (often performed by the same pollsters). I've seem plenty of theories to explain it, but none of them satisfy.

[FBaggins]

6. Turns out that was the "massaged" number

Four years ago they split on their final prediction. I can't tell whether this "vote election model" is a joint effort or just Ed Goeas' interpretation of the internals.

Regardless... Hume was reporting a guess - when the headline numbers told a different story.

[reformist2]

5. Gallup is showing Obama +1 over Romney among RVs. (Their LV poll is a joke and to be ignored imo.)