2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWomen, African Americans and Latinos...
will ensure Hillary Clinton wins in November.
Why.. because Trump has repeatedly said things to anger and/or frighten all of them and they know Hillary understands and appreciates their issues.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Trump needs to win major numbers in the major cities to win the WH and I don't see that happening.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He keeps saying things to piss people off. I think he cant help it.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)He didn't mean any of it.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Not much we can do about that.
aikoaiko
(34,172 posts)He is going to move to the center, change rhetoric, and, for some reason, his words do not stick to him like most politicians.
Still I'd like to think that a Democrat recently found with a dead hooker could beat him by 20 points.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)sexist and racist? Do you think the majority of women and minorities aren't going to have a problem with that?
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)But, "they know Hillary understands and appreciates their issues" is absolutely speaking for more than half the country. The OP implied all, not "the majority".
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)All it would take is a massive coordinated terrorist attack where the perpetrators entered in from the mexican border, defeated our immigration protocols and were able to execute their plans. This event would make Trump look prescient. Clinton's immigration policy would then backfire and she could be framed as part of the problem. You pain these groups as scared of a xenophobe like Trump but the American people in general are easy to spook. When we freak out, we tend to move to the right.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)and they spoke up more for her than for either Trump or Sanders.
So, yes.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Many voted for Trump or Sanders.
Now, quit lying.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)and tell the class where the word "all" appears?
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)"Trump has repeatedly said things to anger and/or frighten ALL of them and they know Hillary understands"
onenote
(42,714 posts)Ash_F
(5,861 posts)~30% of voters are Dems
About 70% of the primaries have happened.
Of those She had a little less than 60% of the vote.
A few weeks ago a black co-worker told me he will be voting for Trump "as long as he builds that wall"
A lot can happen in the 5 months between June and November. I would not put the cart before the horse.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)All that proves is that a single black person you know is rather prejudiced (in your co-worker's case, against Mexicans).
Your co-worker is also an extreme outlier, analogous to a Log Cabin Republican.
It is a long road to the general.
Look out much the Dem primary changed in just 5-6 months. Sanders polled at <10% at the start and has about a little over 40% of the popular vote right now.
brush
(53,787 posts)The Obama coalition, African Americans, sensible progressive whites, Native Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, gays and women who Trump has insulted regularly, will elect Hillary just as it elected Obama twice.
We outnumber the angry whites who support Trump.
Romney got a huge majority of the white vote (minus progressive whites) in 2012 and still lost handily to Obama, as did McCain.
obamanut2012
(26,080 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I hope you told the Black guy that trump, if elected, won't "build the wall" between the U.S.' 3rd biggest trade partner. It's just a campaign slogan.
That would have been helpful.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Huge taxpayer boondoggle. Billions for his construction buddies. If congress would throw trillions away in Iraq then they likely would go along with him on this one.
Cal33
(7,018 posts)help she received from the Establishment people.
Hillary will be more vulnerable during the General Elections, when more of the
people who have been blocked out from the Primary Elections will be voting.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)as opposed to a racist Republican.
Don't kid yourself into thinking that Bernie's DU contingent is representative of the national mindset.
onenote
(42,714 posts)13 open primaries to date.
Clinton: 5.5 million votes
Sanders: 3.95 million votes
I was one of those open primary voters for Bernie, but as I've said throughout this process, it was always going to be an uphill battle for Bernie to get the nomination and at this point I don't see it happening. And as I've also said throughout this process, I will do everything I can to ensure that a republican doesn't end up in the WH if Clinton is the nominee, including not just voting for her but contributing to her campaign financially (just as I previously contributed to Sanders' campaign).
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Seems pretty obvious to me.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Only a fool would.
Response to Dawgs (Reply #12)
Post removed
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)And, I know many women that don't think she has their back.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)the word "ALL" appears nowhere in his/her comment.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Here is the entire sentence:
Try again.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)I assume the response you're referring to was doing the same. Did you miss the 'so yes' in their response.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)but yeah she is going to KILL with those particular demographic groups
(also asians, the lgbt, jewish people)
DCBob
(24,689 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Obama beat Romney with 55% women vote, 93% of the black vote, 71% of the Latino vote, and 39% of the white vote.
I suspect Hillary gets about 60% of the women vote, 95% of the black vote, and 80% of the Latino vote. That should be more than enough to make up any deficit she will have among white voters. Likely a landslide of epic proportions.
Trump will be easy to beat.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Don't rest on your laurels just yet.
That could be a fatal mistake.
Take NOTHING for granted.
Turin_C3PO
(14,004 posts)I think she may even pull off 45-50%of the white male vote. No joke.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But it's not like Clinton needs to win a majority of white males in order to win in an electoral college landslide. The demographic breakdown will probably be similar to what it was in 2012: http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
Clinton may do even better among POC, and will likely do better among women.
athena
(4,187 posts)The days when white men had complete control over the country are long gone. Thank goodness.
(and I'm white)
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)spooky3
(34,458 posts)Have tended to favor Dems.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...it's my understanding that no Democratic candidate has won the *overall* white vote since LBJ.
brush
(53,787 posts)African Americans, sensible progressive whites, Native Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, gays, women we elected Obama twice and will elect Hillary.
We outnumber the angry whites who support Trump.
Thank you
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)with these groups to have any shot at the White House.
Somehow they nominated a candidate that will do worse.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)It'll be interesting to see how well you do.
Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)That's why they're scrambling at this point to knock him off.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)nt.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)you are NOT going to work to prevent a trump presidency?
That's curious.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)nt.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)"Trump has repeatedly said things to anger and/or frighten all of them and they know Hillary understands"
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)haven't angered and/or frightened all woman, AA's, and Latinos, even if not to a point that some will still vote for him? Or, that Black support is based in a "trust" of ANY politician?
If that is the case, you know little about the Black electorate and how we making voting decisions.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)with some kind of authority but there is no "we" or "us." You have your positions and I have mine. The arguments that you are making might work in your community but they will not work on me so perhaps you should find another argumentation strategy. Drumpf's words do not frighten me. Candidates that say one thing and will do another frighten me. Candidates that hold $300k/plate fundraisers and take millions from the vultures on wall street frighten me. Endless wars against radical ideologies frighten me. Regime change operations in distant lands for the sake of international business frightens me. Drumpf's stump speeches do not frighten me.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)are you African-American, a Woman, and/or a Latino(a)?
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)are a factor in one's ability to call out out a fallacious argument when they see one? Try again.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)I am a southern middle-class white male and don't really call myself a progressive but will be voting for Hillary. You figured him out faster than I did. Middle-class white folks have a lot less to lose with a Trump presidency the people of color, women, LGBT or other marginalized groups. When I try to explain this to friends of mine they get a silly blank look on their face. But there are a few lifelong Republicans I know that will not be voting for Trump. They won't vote for Hillary, but not voting for Trump is voting for Hillary. Unfortunately, I also know some who have moved so right wing I know longer talk with them.
And please do not assume that every middle-aged white man in the south driving a big truck with fish stickers is a right winger😄
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I don't ... Just the ones with the confederate flags.
But watch ... that poster will come back claiming to be a Muslim-convert, Bi-racial (Black/white), trans-gendered woman, that is attracted to women ... even has a Latina lover.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)You did too good a job of leading him by the nose to a total self reveal. The only thing we may see now is a Parthian retreat with insults.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)Keep making my race the subject of your discussion with this man that does NOT speak for me and we are going to have a problem. You are probably already in violation of TOS. Stop it now.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)but it has nothing to do with my thought process. What you are doing right now is against TOS and can get you Tombstoned. Tread carefully.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)but that said ... ToS violation? LOL, as I quake in my boots.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)then why have you replied to several of my comments?
Why are you bringing up my race in an effort to disrupt the conversation and discredit me? Why are you trying to crush alternate points of view? Why are you trying to make me fit in your box? Now go take a seat rookie...
Response to TowneshipRebellion (Reply #108)
Post removed
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)and see your account go "up in smoke..." rookie.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)My race has nothing to do with my thought process. You are suggesting that I couldn't possibly be AA because I have a radical position but the underlying idea is that that X race must think like Y. You know who else carries these views? Stormfronters. Keep it up and we are going to have a problem.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Anyone can see that by reading the thread. And if I made incorrect assumptions about your race, or your motivations then I sincerely apologize. Not the wimpy 'if anyone was offended then I apologize' but I truly do.
And if you can truly claim that your thought process is not effected by your race then you are a better person than I. But I will never apologize for stating that a middle class white man does not have nearly as much at stake in this election as a woman, a person of color, the LGBT and other marginalized groups. And if a liberal, middle class white male decides out of a fit of anger to withhold a vote for the Democratic candidate then I have no problem saying that I believe that it is white privilege is in action.
Now as to your whole Stormfront insults and tombstone threats. I only have 78 posts. While I have been a little sarcastic in some of them I have not acted like an asshole. The fact that with your whopping 82 posts you can come like you own the place is astounding. And actually threaten 1StrongBlackMan who has 30K. And your whole "keep it up and we are going to have a problem" line. Like this is a bar fight.
I do not care what race you are, grow up and go pound sand.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)ToS is ToS, right? So some people get to be bullies just because they have X number of posts? Please. I accept your apology because you were in the WRONG and you have seen the error of your presumption. You friend over here with 30k posts is now calling me a sellout in other words and action will be taken because I don't tolerate abuse from trashy people or anyone for that matter. Peace.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Over 80% if you include all the African Americans that have already voted. As I said African Americans are not a monolith. No group is. My buddy, black, is a swimming instructor/lifeguard at a Orlando gym. We saw this black guy reading Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight by Karl Rove. I said it would be like a Jew reading Mein Kampf. My buddy said "c'mon, give the guy a break." I took that as folks should be allowed to think for themselves, even folks we disagree with. He also left open the possibility he was reading it for heuristic reasons. I read lots of books by people or about people I don't necessarily like but do find interesting.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)And, this isn't about Trump. It's about someone claiming that all women and minority agree that Hillary understands. That is obviously not true.
TowneshipRebellion
(92 posts)nt.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)2. She has been dismissive of BLM activists on video at least 3 times famously.
3. She is for a "fence" as opposed to Trump's wall.
She understands?
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)As well, it is obvious by the vote of the people that she indeed understands. Take your anti-Hillary screeds to the Bernie Group.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Also you did not explain the other two.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)the vote shows that Women, African Americans and Latinos/Latinas believe she understands them/us to the degree necessary to get our/their votes.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Asian Americans? Arab Americans? Sanders won these.
She has been doing well in high population areas because media power(mainly television) is much stronger there than people power and even social media, for now.
My argument is there are other factors for why she won a majority of those groups. Correlation is not causation.
If Sanders made the 3 fumbles I listed instead of her, the spread would be wider.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I am not Native American, Arab American, or Asian American.
And, I have not seen what you claim ... In fact, all of the polls I have seen doubt include such a break out because the samples were too small to assign statistical significance.
Come on ... you can't really believe that.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Also watch this video.
I had been organizing with this group on their Wendy's campaign for quite some time. I can't see Clinton doing this.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Ash_F
(5,861 posts)...picked in the hot sun.
Meanwhile, in Haiti, Clinton successfully lobbied to stop textile workers from gaining a 31 cent raise to 62 cents per hour.
I have my reasons. I am curious about yours.
Haveadream
(1,630 posts)The United Farm Workers endorsed Hillary Clinton. Although they appreciate Senator Sander's contributions to the economic debate, they are are not feeling the bern because of his work against their chances for a path to immigration reform. They are also very concerned by his exploitation and willingness to put aside his professed aversion to the guest worker program as long as it benefits his home state of Vermont.
In 2007 The United Farm Workers WANTED the comprehensive immigration reform bill. But, according to Arturo Rodriguez, President of the United Farm Workers:
"We came close to winning comprehensive immigration reform when a bipartisan bill by Sens. Edward Kennedy and John McCain nearly passed the Senate in 2007. That measure, which would have granted legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants... would have let undocumented farm workers earn the right to permanently stay in this country.
If that proposal--which President George W. Bush pledged to sign -- had passed in 2007, would there still be 11 million undocumented immigrants living today in fear and constantly subjected to mistreatment? There would not be.Would Donald Trump and most Republican presidential candidates be appealing today to bigotry and rancor by scapegoating immigrants?
Sen. Sanders voted against the Kennedy-McCain bill and led the push for amendments that killed the measure because he opposed the conditions pushed by business interests for guest workers, he said during the Feb. 11 debate.
But Sen. Sanders' opposition to abusive guest worker programs didn't extend to a bill he cosponsored in 2011, to allow agricultural guest workers into his home state's largest farm sector -- Vermont's dairy industry... So the Sanders-backed measure could have let dairies replace all current domestic farm laborers with foreign guest workers -- with the same damaging impacts on wages and working conditions for both domestic and foreign guest workers Sen. Sanders decried in other industries."
Although Sen. Sanders opposes use of guest workers because of concerns over exploitation, why is he willing to make an exception for "guest workers in agriculture" in Vermont?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511403095
Dairy Work Has Soured for Vermonts Migrant Workers
On the Ferrisburgh, Vermont dairy farm where he was responsible for breeding and milking the cows, Victor Diaz used to spend every night curled up in a broken-down camper beside a barn. During the two years of enduring rainwater dripping down on him and other migrant workers who shared the quarters, Diaz, who was born in Chiapas, Mexico, says he continuously asked his boss for better accommodations.
With a couple of coworkers, we got together and we fought for something better, Diaz recounts now. We got a trailer.
Unfortunately, he says, the new trailer was hardly an improvement: Sewage flowed out of the faucet, shower and washing machine. Still, according to Diaz, the farmer, Ray Brands, described it as a mansion.
The sewage, the smellI cant put up with it any more, Diaz says he told his boss. Rather than negotiate a solution, however, Diaz says that Brands started insulting us in a number of ways. And he threatened us by saying theres 50 workers behind you and theyll take your jobs.
http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/16755/vermonts_migrant_dairy_workers
While Holt-Giménez's keynote at the UVM summit focused on the major structural forces that have given rise to what he calls a "capitalist food regime," the expert closed his remarks by reflecting on a visit he had taken the day before to a northern Vermont dairy farm that employs migrant workers.
"They're people who don't leave the farm for years. And I was so taken aback, and this great sadness set in my heart, and I still can't shake it," Holt-Giménez said. "I've been thinking about this since I got here. It's like, I know these people, these are family people, these are people who have deep, rich, village life. But I've never seen such solitude amongst farm workers in my life."
http://digital.vpr.net/post/farm-labor-expert-reacts-vermont-migrant-workers-isolation#stream/0
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Haveadream
(1,630 posts)Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Do you think she should come out against the for profit prison system? What about Marijuana legalization?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)She was clumsy ... not as clumsy as Bernie's; but, clumsy, none the less.
She has ... https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/criminal-justice-reform/
Legalization of weed is way down the list of concerns among the African-American community.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)She has not said she would support a bill to ban private contractors from prisons. Unlike Sanders who has proposed a bill.
Also her website said she is not taking money from them but her PACs are.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/marco-rubio-and-hillary-clinton-accepted_b_9191868.html
As for Sanders being clumsier, I can't imagine Clinton chaining herself to to a black woman for her right to an education.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)for the state he represents.
What has he done in the subsequent 50+ years, since that picture was taken?
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)I am mainly concerned with what I think the candidate's will do.
Clinton has not said she would support banning private prisons nor that she would she support drug decriminalization. And these are both positions that poll with the majority of Americans.
If she won't say it now even when it is very popular she probably won't work for it after the election.
Haveadream
(1,630 posts)Clinton has not said she would support banning private prisons nor that she would she support drug decriminalization. And these are both positions that poll with the majority of Americans.
Hillary addressed this very issue as recently as her Town Hall which was televised this past week. She specifically said she wanted to eliminate for profit prisons and reduce penalties for many drug related offenses as well as improve support for those so incarcerated including rehab, education, job opportunities and ability to vote.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Being against private prisons is not the same agreeing to a ban. Will she sign Sanders' bill?
Haveadream
(1,630 posts)Hillary Clinton has said we must end the era of mass incarceration, and as president, she will end private prisons and private immigrant detention centers, campaign spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said in a statement Thursday night. She believes that we should not contract out this core responsibility of the federal government, and when were dealing with a mass incarceration crisis, we dont need private industry incentives that may contribute or have the appearance of contributing to over-incarceration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-private-prisons_us_562a3e3ee4b0ec0a389418ec
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)"move away from" is the actual phrase used on her official website. Also not the same as a ban.
That deliberate and often used word choice should be a huge red flag for anyone who knows politicians.
Someone should ask her directly(not her spokesperson) if she will sign the bill as president.
Haveadream
(1,630 posts)but upon reading the paraphrased quote, it is hard to tell if they are conflating the terms, "end" and "ban". As you said, one is not necessarily the same as the other. "Moving away from" connotes a process and a ban translates to a specific act or legislation. You are right; language matters and I would like to hear her be even more specific about the way she plans to make that change.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Sanders has said ban and proposed a bill to back it up. I feel Clinton's website deliberately uses the phrase "move away from" to avoid such a commitment.
As president, would she speak in favor of the bill at press conferences and in her weekly addresses? Would she sign Sanders' bill if it comes to her desk? This is a question that should be asked in an interview or townhall, the way they pressed on the social security cap.
Haveadream
(1,630 posts)and the for-profit prison system is one where there need to be sweeping changes. We all need to keep pushing for this!
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Watch this video. It gets better towards the end.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)will proudly cast her vote for a woman worth voting for.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)But what we need are big coattails to go along with the beatdown so President Clinton can get things done!
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)The majority of white men have voted GOP in the last several elections. The majority of racial ethnic minorities have voted Dem. White women I'm not sure of the statistics. But I'm fairly sure that they will vote for the first female POTUS candidate.
Demographically it is difficult for any GOP nominee to win the presidency at this point. For Trump it might be harder since he'll have to walk back an awful lot of stuff that he said against various minority groups as well as women.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...has won the white vote.
Yet Carter won, B. Clinton won twice, Obama won twice and H. Clinton is a heavy favorite. Not to mention Gore, who won the popular vote, and Kerry, who came darn close to unseating an incumbent.
Reliance on winning a majority of the white vote will become an increasingly poor strategy for Republicans, as US demographics continue to shift. And no Democratic candidate will win the party's nomination without winning over a majority of POC or women. Some of us have been pointing that out for months now.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)The Democratic Party, at this point in history, is the party with the diverse coalition, and the GOP is the white party (and more the male party - white women vote Dem at a higher rate than white men).
So Hillary's winning coalition within the Dem primaries echo the makeup of the Dem Party.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...the Democratic electorate in the states of the Deep South are more representative of the overall Democratic electorate than the Democratic electorate in places like Nebraska, Maine, Vermont, Utah, and so on.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)Congress so she can get shit done sans the wingnuttery,
I'm channeling Harriett Tubman right now. I don't have time for the feels.
treestar
(82,383 posts)More than ever the longer Trump's idiocy goes on.
Maru Kitteh
(28,341 posts)Republicans.
It's going to be fine.
apnu
(8,758 posts)Thought I support Bernie, I have zero problems supporting Hillary in the GE. Given what evil lurks in the GOP, I will sleep well supporting Hillary despite my disagreement with her positions on a few things. (War, fracking, and so forth)
B Calm
(28,762 posts)win too. Never take the republican voters for granted, they'll vote in mass to keep Hillary out of the White House.
forjusticethunders
(1,151 posts)granted it was close enough that it COULD be stolen.
Also this country is a lot blacker a lot browner and a lot younger than 2000 let alone 1980.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)I am a woman.
I do not fear Trump. Anger yes. Fear, no.
I know that Hillary does not understand and appreciate my issues. I've known this for a couple of decades now.
obamanut2012
(26,080 posts)Both national-level GOP women, like Christine Whitman and Susan Collins, and people like my mom's neighbor. Very southern, small-town Conservative Christian, always voted GOP, borderline Teabagger. She told my mom she is so excited about voting for Hillary, and would have even if Trump wasn't the nominee. Adding Trump in will only increase the crossover.