Presidential Poll GEORGIA: Clinton 50%, Trump 37%

[firebrand80]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/LRPmemo.GeorgiaDemocraticParty.F.041116.pdf

[UMTerp01]

1. Doesn't matter Hillary won Georgia. It always goes Repub...oh...wait...

I still say its too far out to make anything about GE polls but since all we've heard is that the southern states don't matter because they always go red, this sort of slaps that talking point in the face.

[Tarc]

2. I really want to believe this, and I hope it will convince her campaign

to pour some time and funds into the state if it really is in play.

[MineralMan]

3. And there it is. Hillary Clinton

will flip some Red states to Blue. Georgia. Texas. Maybe a couple of others. Count on it.

[Dawgs]

4. I live in Georgia, and there's no fucking way she wins here.

Count on it.

[Skwmom]

24. I lived in Georgia and I agree.

[leftofcool]

28. She is ahead in all the Southern States. Maybe you could work to see that she stays that way.

[Stuckinthebush]

30. Atlanta is no longer Southern

It's very diverse. I can see her winning Ga by a slight margin given Atlanta and the outlying suburbs.

But, it's a long shot

[Cali_Democrat]

33. You sound like you'll be disappointed if she wins GA. nt

[napi21]

6. I wish I could believe this, but I don't

My neighbors have been supporting Trump since he announced. We Ga. Dems (few of us as there are) had high hopes for Jimmy Carter's grandson & Nunn's daughter last year, and BOTH were trounced. Honestly, the days of any sane Pubbies in Ga. are GGONE!

[firebrand80]

9. It would take a lot to convince me she could actually win, however

if GA is close, the swing states are a bloodbath, the Senate flips and the House might even be in play.

[auntpurl]

11. I already think the swing states are going to be a bloodbath

Hillary will destroy Trump in VA, FL, PA, and likely OH.

[Skwmom]

25. I would not count on PA or OH.

[JaneyVee]

16. Shes leading in Arizona and Mississippi also.

[CrowCityDem]

5. Leading Utah and Arizona, close in Mississippi too. She can turn states blue against Trump.

[DCBob]

7. Fascinating!

[La Lioness Priyanka]

8. I dont know about georgia but im hopeful about AZ

[LenaBaby61]

10. I don't know about Hillary Clinton flipping Georgia ....

Last edited Wed Apr 27, 2016, 03:09 PM - Edit history (1)

To Blue, but one can HOPE can't one

One prediction I can get behind is Nate Silver's prediction when he says that Trump cannot flip any Blue states Red.

MAR 25, 2016 AT 8:11 AM

Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue State Red In November

Donald Trump’s performance in primaries and caucuses has created some unusual geographic patterns. What sort of candidate dominates in both Alabama (where Trump won 43 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday) and Massachusetts (where he got 49 percent)? Why was Trump so strong in Hawaii — and so weak in Kansas? The answers to these questions are complicated. Trump attracts voters for multiple reasons: Economic anxiety and racial resentment are important factors in his success, but hardly the only ones.

Let me propose One Simple Trick that makes the geographic patterns at least a bit clearer: Trump’s strengths and weaknesses are easier to understand if you consider how many Democrats and Republicans turned out in each primary. Republican voters are a small minority of the overall electorate in states like Massachusetts and Hawaii, so their support for Trump isn’t a good indication of how those states might behave in November.

Take Massachusetts, for example. Trump’s 49 percent — his highest fraction in any state to date — was on light turnout: Only about 630,000 voters participated in the Republican primary, compared with 1.2 million for the Democratic one. Thus, Trump won only about 17 percent of the overall vote among Bay Staters who turned out that day.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/

[ibegurpard]

12. lol

Dream on

[sufrommich]

13. That would really be something,

but I'm not going to get my hopes up about Georgia...yet.

[auntpurl]

14. GA, TX

Some really interesting states could be in play.

I'm not getting my hopes up yet either, but the possibility is definitely interesting.

[Demsrule86]

15. I don't believe polls this early out but

Obama came close in Georgia without ever campaigning there in 12. And Georgia hates their current governor...I used to live there. Ga will be blue before Texas.

[firebrand80]

17. I remember Nate Silver calling GA a case of "irrational exuberance" nt

[Orsino]

18. Trump is exactly the sort of tool who could turn Georgia purple. n/t

[Garrett78]

19. States in the Deep South will turn "blue" before the likes of MT, UT, WY, ID, SD, ND and AK do.

That's one reason why the Clinton-Dixie meme has always been so silly.

[sufrommich]

21. And Georgia has Atlanta,a sophisticated city that's

basically the capitol of the South. I agree with you that the South has a better chance of going back to blue than the rural west does,but I don't see it coming yet.

[ibegurpard]

27. false

Montana went to Clinton the 1st in 92 and Obama only lost by 2 points in 08. When's the last time a Democrat took Georgia?

[Garrett78]

32. Clinton also won Georgia in '92, to answer your question. Perot was a bigger factor in MT than GA.

In 2012, Obama came closer to winning Georgia than he came to winning Montana. Yes, MT was closer in '08, but GA wasn't far behind. Anyway, those aren't the only 2 states I listed, so you're cherry-picking quite a bit. Consider Romney's margin of victory in each state that he won in 2012:


1) Utah: 48 points
2) Wyoming: 41 points
3) Oklahoma: 34 points
4) Idaho: 32 points
5) West Virginia: 27 points
6) Arkansas: 24 points
7) Nebraska: 23 points
8) Kentucky: 22 points (22.7)
9) Alabama: 22 points (22.3)
10) Kansas: 22 points (22.2)
11) Tennessee: 20 points (20.5)
12) North Dakota: 20 points (19.8)
13) South Dakota: 18 points
14) Louisiana: 17 points
15) Texas: 16 points
16) Alaska: 14 points (14.0)
17) Montana: 14 points (13.5)
18) Mississippi: 12 points
19) South Carolina: 11 points (10.6)
20) Indiana: 11 points (10.5)
21) Arizona: 10 points (10.1)
22) Missouri: 10 points (9.6)
23) Georgia: 8 points
24) North Carolina: 2 points

[ibegurpard]

34. And Obama lost Montana in 08 by 2 points

With no Perot factor.
Meanwhile one of our senators is a Democrat while most of our statewide office-holders are also Democrats. How's Georgia doing?
I don't expect us to weather the down-ballot Hillary massacre very well.

[Garrett78]

35. You already mentioned that.

You're putting all of your eggs in the Obama-Montana-2008 basket, while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that the Deep South (as a whole) is less 'red' than the Mountain West (as a whole). And the fact that Georgia was closer in 2012 (the most recent presidential election) than Montana was.

[forjusticethunders]

20. i want to belieeeeeeeeeeeevveeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

I think the House is in play regardless though.

[Calista241]

23. I don't think the House is in play.

These people are too entrenched and gerrymandered for us to break.

In addition, you're counting on Hillary having significant coat tails, and she may beat Trump, but she's still got negatives too high to bring in the new voters required to flip this Congress.

[forjusticethunders]

29. Trump has even worse negatives

Half of his own party hates him. The other half is calling the half that hates him "cuckservatives".

Imagine if 80-90%, not 10% of Bernie voters were Bernie or Bust. That is the GOP reality right now.

[Ash_F]

22. Very interesting.

[iandhr]

26. Midnight train to Georgia

[oberliner]

31. Could be one hell of a landslide for Hillary

Looking forward to it.