Give the GOP New Hampshire, Indiana, OHIO, FLORIDA, North Carolina and Nevada,

[Gruntled Old Man]

and Obama still wins 275-263. And that's assuming that Romney carries the entire South except for Virginia, something I'm quite honestly skeptical a Mormon can do.

[Atman]

1. Bill Maher nailed it last night...

No one thought the drunken, coke-head C student could beat the walking Genius Bar in 2000...but we all know how that worked out.

Never misunderestimate the stupidity of the American Voter, especially if Democrats get over-confident that Obama is a lock.

[Alexander]

3. People tend to underestimate the power of "likability" when it comes to voting.

You could be the perfect candidate on paper, but if people are bored by your speeches and voters are turned off by your personality, usually you are going to lose.

The conventional wisdom in 2000 and 2004 was that Bush was the "likable" candidate and Gore and Kerry weren't. Was this partly media-driven bullshit? Yes. Was there some truth to it? Also yes. Neither Gore nor Kerry were particularly exciting on the stump, nor did either of them have the ability to deliver speeches like Barack Obama.

There's also a lot to be said for Obama and Clinton - people like them and they are both great speakers, no matter what else you may think of them.

Looking ahead to November, none of the Republican clowns, not even the brokered-convention names people mention, are great speakers at all. None of them are going to be perceived as more "likable" than Obama. And that is going to count for a LOT of votes, whether we like it or not.

[brooklynite]

5. Gore was a mediocre candidate - doesn't compare to Obama's political skill and resources

[Atman]

9. This is true...

It also feeds into what I said about America simply switching parties every eight years -- unless the economy is bad and you break your promise not to raise taxes.

[sofa king]

6. I am the lock!

Anyone who thinks it's in the bag needs to tell themselves that. It's not a lock until I lock it the hell down myself.

[Alexander]

2. The good news is we won't have to. They'll be lucky to win half of those states.

In fact, of all those states, Indiana is the only one that looks as if it will definitely go red this year. And that's less due to polls (to be honest I haven't seen a single GE Indiana poll recently) and more due to people just assuming that the Republicans will win it due to its voting history.

Never mind the fact that Obama won Indiana in 2008, or the fact that his residence in next-door Illinois means more people in the Gary area knew who he was.

And let's not forget about Missouri, currently a 49-49 tie between Romney and Obama. Let's also not forget about Arizona, which the Obama campaign has said they will contest in 2012.

[unionyes85]

4. (R) primary

Ok so here's my thing.

Right now it looks like it's either Santorum or Romney for the Republicans.

I used to root for Santorum because he's so extreme that Obama would surely win, but then I got to thinking and reading. Santorum motivates his base, he's a whack-job but he will get the Republican base to the polls because he's a true whack-job. So yes Obama might still win but what does the picture in the Senate and House look like?

Then I thought Romney. He at least breathes air and is a mainstream Republican...not a radical. But he's boring and the Republicans aren't too excited about him, so chances are that people will just stay home if he's the candidate. Likely outcome? Obama wins again, we retake the House and keep a majority in the Senate. Right?

It seems that if Romney wins we have a better shot.

Any thoughts?

[DCBob]

7. I agree. Romney is Obama's "dream" opponent.

Romney's big weaknesses match up perfectly with Obama's minor weaknesses. There was a great post about this yesterday I believe. Plus he is boring, predictable, uninspiring, a flipflopper, and a dependable gaffe machine. What more could you ask for in a political opponent?

[KharmaTrain]

8. The Downticket Factor...

We're already hearing some within the rushpublican tent looking at retaining the House and taking the Senate as their priority in November and winning the Presidency as secondary. A big reason for this is how divided that inept and corrupt party has become. No matter who wins the nomination, its gonna piss off a solid 20% or more of the "base"...who may either go for a third party choice at the top of the ticket or just pass voting for a candidate altogether...BUT they will be there to support their favorite teabagger for the House and Senate as well as state and local races. Democrats can't ignore this with all the good polling news about President Obama as the rushpublican base will be energized to show up to support a Walker in Wisconsin or a close Senate race in Pennsylvania or Virginia.

The bottom line will, and always is, turn out and which party has the best GOTV operation. Democrats need to feel hungry...look beyond the top of the ticket and the endless polls and get ready to work to no only re-elect President Obama but give him a majority in the House and Senate...