2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie is not John Kasich
Kasich needs 162% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. Bernie is not mathematically eliminated.
He is however realistically eliminated from getting the most pledged delegates, based off all polling, modeling, etc. The way the primaries have gone, there is less than 1% chance Bernie gets the kind of numbers he needs to, to pass Hillary in pledged delegates.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)of remaining pledged delegates. WHile that is essentially politically impossible, it is not mathematically impossible.
Kasich, and now Cruz I believe, are mathematically eliminated. Bernie is not.
Renew Deal
(81,861 posts)But Super Delegates count and with them the gap is more gaping.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)It's been repeated non stop that the supers will got with the pledged delegate winner.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)You forgot the superdels.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The supers will go with the pledged delegate winner. So the number to win is 2,026.
Regardless, your math is wrong. It's 98% if you wrongfully include supers as non-movable.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)Because if somehow, Bernie were to win the pledged delegates, those supers would uproot themselves and go into his corner.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Bernie is not going to win pledged delegates.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)But if Bernie were to somehow win 80% of the remaining delegates, those supers would leave in droves to Bernie's camp.
It's not going to happen, but it's also why I wouldnt say he needs over 100% of the remaining delegates.
Response to MadBadger (Original post)
Post removed