Does Bernie Still Have a Mathematical Path to Victory?

[firebrand80]

If so, what is it?

[morningfog]

1. Yes.he has not been mathematically eliminated.

People have a hard time distinguishing between mathematically possible and politically possible.

[lagomorph777]

15. "Mathematically impossible" would mean numbers >100%,

or imaginary numbers (i) or negative numbers.

We're not looking at any of that, so we are still in "mathematically possible" territory.

[karynnj]

34. You don't need negative numbers or imaginary numbers, what you need are plain old positive integers

Until Hillary Clinton gets 50% of the PLEDGED delegates, mathematically, it is possible for Bernie to win enough pledged delegates to himself get over 50% of the PLEDGED delegates.

Though mathematically possible, it is very improbable. By this, I mean it is extremely unlikely that Bernie Sanders can get that high a percent of the remaining delegates.

Consider that even the worst team in baseball is not mathematically eliminated from being in the playoffs until long after nearly everyone would say "they have no chance". The former is a mechanical calculation -- the latter looks at past performance and what future games are likely to look like.

This is not 2008, where in the last month, though Obama was ahead and was highly likely to win, Clinton realistically could have pulled off an unpredicted comeback. We are getting to the point, where it is not realistic to assume that Sanders could pull off a stunning upset -- even though mathematically, Clinton has not precluded that possibility.

[lagomorph777]

36. Agreed - and let's not even get into irrational numbers.

[JaneyVee]

2. Dont forget to minus the superdelegates then add 10 points for momentum.

[firebrand80]

4. +20 for a moveon.org petition nt

[Nonhlanhla]

3. No, he doesn't. nt

[gollygee]

5. I can't see it happening at this point

Theoretically he does, but only theoretically. The reality is that he is too far behind now to catch up. I had a renewed optimism about his campaign after his victory here in Michigan, but it's not going to happen at this point.

[Tarc]

6. Sure, all he has to do is hit 64-65% down the stretch

http://DemRace.com/?share=gYpLgP7A

If we give Sanders 65% in California and 64% in every other remaining contest, he bests Clinton by 1 pledged delegate.

[firebrand80]

9. We know that won't happen in

Indiana, Kentucky, New Jersey or New Mexico.

[morningfog]

13. But that is the mathematical path you asked about.

[thesquanderer]

18. Fun site. Here's another possibility that works...

Give all closed primaries to Hillary with 51%
Give all caucuses and non-closed primaries to Bernie at 59%, except California. If he gets 77% in California, he then beats Hillary in pledged delegates.

No, I would not bet so much as a nickel on this.

Really, about the only way he could end up with more pledged delegates than Hillary is maybe if she gets indicted between now and California. I wouldn't bet on that, either.

[brush]

20. An indictment is what the die-hards are betting and praying for.

They have nothing else.

[aikoaiko]

7. It doesn't matter either way.

[merrily]

8. Irrelevant. He will do what Hillary did in 2008, namely, keep running.

[firebrand80]

12. I don't have a problem with that

As long as he concedes and endorsers her before the convention, just like Hillary did

[merrily]

14. Despite what she says now, Hillary cut a deal for herself at the end of the 2008 primary.

Bernie will not.

[auntpurl]

10. Well, mathematically, yes. Realistically? No.

[CrowCityDem]

11. If the rest of the undeclared supers come out this week, it will be over in Indiana.

[B Calm]

16. Why should he drop out, they assassinated Robert Kennedy in June

using Hillary's logic when she ran against Obama.

[onehandle]

17. No. nt

[workinclasszero]

19. Nope

[HumanityExperiment]

21. Math...

Does HRC have the required delegate count to earn the nomination today, right now? Since SDs have to wait until convention to vote they don't factor into the math until convention...

SO again does HRC have enough delegates to earn the nomination?

Then the primary isn't over and the debate on issues for the DEM platform continues, correct?

[firebrand80]

22. ALL of the delegates vote at the convention

Technically, nobody ever wins the nomination until the convention, that's why the term "Presumptive Nominee" is used.

The standard used to call Obama the presumptive nominee in '08 was PD + SD. Nobody was running around saying "He hasn't won yet."

[HumanityExperiment]

23. 'Presumptive Nominee'...

mass media created that term, so why would I or the DEM party use it?

when did we as a party allow outside influences to determine when the issues were 'defined' and nominee 'presumed'?

Since 'all the delegates vote and the convention' then that's the threshold is it not based upon the party rules, so let the system play out and let every state vote and allow the debate on issues to run it's course or do HRC and her supporters not want to continue the debate on issues and define the DEM platform?

[firebrand80]

25. Because it's a foregone conclusion at that point

The debate on the issues started last year. Your side lost.

[HumanityExperiment]

29. Does HRC have the required delegate count required TODAY...

to earn the DEM nomination, yes or no?

until that time the primary continues as does the debate on issues that will define the DEM platform or do you deny that as well?

Until the convention, no side has 'won or lost', correct?

[firebrand80]

30. She does not have enough as of today

My point is that once she has a majority of PDs + sufficient SDs, the race is over. The only thing left to debate at that point would be whether the SDs should overturn the will of the voters.

To say the race should continue because the delegates haven't technically voted yet is a ridiculous standard.

[HumanityExperiment]

31. 'She does not have enough as of today'...

case closed...

Debate continues, primary rolls on allowing rest of states to cast their votes

SDs don't matter nor factor AT ALL until convention, if HRC supporters leverage SDs so much this election cycle then lobby during convention to get the rules changed concerning SDs and when they can 'vote'...

glad you're really excited about wanting to end this primary but the fact remains she 'She does not have enough as of today' and until she does she hasn't won

[firebrand80]

32. You're still missing the point

None of the Delegates vote until the convention, Supers or Pledged. Saying that it's not over because they haven't officially voted yet is a ridiculous standard that has never been used in the past.

It would be different of the SDs haven't told us how they would vote; the results might still be up in the air. But since they have, the race is over once Hillary hits the threshold.

The only justification for remaining in the race after the primaries are over is arguing that the PDs should abandon the will of the voters.

[HumanityExperiment]

33. 'remaining in the race after the primaries are over'...

is the primary voting cycle over? yes or no?

'they haven't officially voted yet is a ridiculous standard that has never been used in the past.'
How is debating the issues prior to the convention for the DEM platform considered 'ridiculous standard that has never been used in the past'?

It's odd that HRC supporters want to pivot to GE so they avoid debating the issues that will define the DEM platform

[LanternWaste]

27. You have objective evidence to support your assertion, or is it merely a convenient allegation?

"mass media created that term..."

You have objective evidence to support your assertion, or is it merely a convenient allegation allowing one to dismiss the relevant as it does not support a particular bias?

[HumanityExperiment]

28. Wow...

Sure thing...

http://www.visualthesaurus.com/cm/wordroutes/the-presumptive-nominee-i-presume/

[Nye Bevan]

24. It's like saying a 45-72 baseball team has not been mathematically eliminated fron the playoffs,

because they could theoretically go 45-0 in the remainder of the season and end up with a 90-72 record. Teams are eliminated for all practical purposes long before they are mathematically eliminated.

[LaydeeBug]

26. Nope. nt

[Garrett78]

35. The "Bern Path" was the only attempt I ever saw...

...in spite of numerous requests over the course of many weeks for someone - ANYONE - to demonstrate with delegate math how Sanders could realistically get to 2026 pledged delegates. And the "Bern Path" was, as I said when it was first posted, utterly unrealistic.

Delegate calculators aplenty, yet nobody was willing to demonstrate a realistic path to victory for Sanders. That's pretty darn telling.