The 1990s economy and race

[Recursion]

All data are from here: https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/families/

(And, sorry, I can't seem to get Matlab to turn off scientific notation for the salaries)

All income is in 2014 dollars (meaning it's accounting for inflation)

Here's the household income first quintile mark for white families from 1966 to 2014 (ie, 20% of white families make less than this):



As you can see, the poorest white families are very vulnerable to recessions (you can easily spot each national recession in these numbers). The 1990s were a very good time for them, but after 2000 it's been pretty awful, and they're back to where they were in the 1970s.

Here's the household income first quintile mark for black families over the same time:



So the poorest black families saw very significant income increases during the 1990s, and smaller losses during the 2000s. They are significantly better off today than at any point before 1995.

Here's the second quintile mark for white families (ie, 40% of white families make less than this):



As you can see, it's already a somewhat smoother line than for the poorer quintile of whites. The 1990s were also good to them, and the 2000s were less disastrous. They're making about what they were in the middle of the 1990s upswing.

Here's the second quintile mark for black families:



Again, huge gains, and smaller losses on the downside.

Finally, here are the third quintile marks for white and black families:





What's really interesting is when you overlay them:



This is actually rather stunning: the black second quintile is about the same as the white first quintile, and the black third quintile is about the same as the white second quintile.

And in fact, the 1990s upswing was when they "caught up" to the white quintile below them. Minorities experienced significantly more income increases since 1990 than whites have. White resentment has a lot of basis in this fact. I also think this gets to Sanders's lower polls among black voters: he's essentially running against the 1990s, and they benefited from that decade a lot more than Sanders's base did.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

1. Is there anything you can do about the false zeros?

I hate false zeros in general as a matter or religious principle, but I think this is a case where they produce a particularly misleading impression, making the "white 1st quintile" line look much jumpier than it actually is.

That said, I think this is an excellent way of highlighting a possible reason why Clinton is doing better among minorities.

[Recursion]

2. Yeah, I should have fixed the axes; that bugs me too

Let me see if I can redo that better...

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by ...

&quot Sanders) essentially (is) running against the 1990's".

[Recursion]

4. NAFTA, and trade in general

That deserves a more thought-out response, though...

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. Ahhh.