2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDon't trust the people predicting that Sanders would have done better in the general.
There are a lot of dispirited Sanders supporters claiming that Clinton will lose the general election, and Sanders would have won it.
The thing to remember about these people is that, almost universally, until recently they were predicting that Clinton would lose the primary and Sanders would win it, in defiance of all the evidence.
They've demonstrated over and over again that, for reasons of cognitive bias, they underestimate Clinton and overestimate Sanders.
So their predictions should be given less wait than the predictions of the majority of informed commentators who thought that Clinton would almost certainly win the primary, and will be more likely to win the general.
I'm far from certain that Clinton will win the White House. For the last four years, I've been pessimistically predicting that a Republican victory this year was more likely, because the Dems have been in power for eight years and longer than that is very rare. There were only two possible matchups this year where I think the Democrat would be the favourite to win - Trump/Clinton and Trump/O'Malley (one might conceivably make a case for Cruz/Clinton and Cruz/O'Malley, but I think those are more toss-ups). But it's looking like we're going to get one of those. If the Republicans do nominate Trump, the election is now the democrats' to lose.
elleng
(130,974 posts) Yes, Hillary Could Lose to Trump.
http://www.thenation.com/article/start-making-sense-yes-hillary-could-lose-to-trump/
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)"The odds are somewhat in our favour" is a million miles from "we're certain to win".
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)Trump is so acerbic, so racist, and so horrid, that most Republicans I know refuse to vote for him. Most of them hate Hillary with the fires of hell and plan to vote for her over Trump.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)Non-statistical predictions should be avoided at this point.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)... so I'll just call it a strong gut feeling.
MADem
(135,425 posts)It would get ugly, pervy and shit-flingy. Those essays are a sinker and a stinker. And most Americans know nothing about them, even though Democrats have been too polite to say too much about them.
And they'd GET those tax returns.
The GOP doesn't hold back.
What do they have against Clinton in that vein? Her husband behaved slightly less badly than Jay Z? Hill had no sister to kick Bill in an elevator? No one cares about that shit any more. And most people do remember the 90s as being a pretty good era for many.
I think HRC is well positioned to win. And it's a good thing.