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Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
Wed Apr 27, 2016, 03:58 AM Apr 2016

Don't trust the people predicting that Sanders would have done better in the general.

There are a lot of dispirited Sanders supporters claiming that Clinton will lose the general election, and Sanders would have won it.

The thing to remember about these people is that, almost universally, until recently they were predicting that Clinton would lose the primary and Sanders would win it, in defiance of all the evidence.

They've demonstrated over and over again that, for reasons of cognitive bias, they underestimate Clinton and overestimate Sanders.

So their predictions should be given less wait than the predictions of the majority of informed commentators who thought that Clinton would almost certainly win the primary, and will be more likely to win the general.


I'm far from certain that Clinton will win the White House. For the last four years, I've been pessimistically predicting that a Republican victory this year was more likely, because the Dems have been in power for eight years and longer than that is very rare. There were only two possible matchups this year where I think the Democrat would be the favourite to win - Trump/Clinton and Trump/O'Malley (one might conceivably make a case for Cruz/Clinton and Cruz/O'Malley, but I think those are more toss-ups). But it's looking like we're going to get one of those. If the Republicans do nominate Trump, the election is now the democrats' to lose.

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Don't trust the people predicting that Sanders would have done better in the general. (Original Post) Donald Ian Rankin Apr 2016 OP
and we may lose it. elleng Apr 2016 #1
Yes, absolutely. Donald Ian Rankin Apr 2016 #2
She will win. nolawarlock Apr 2016 #3
Plausible, but not certain. Donald Ian Rankin Apr 2016 #4
Perhaps you're right ... nolawarlock Apr 2016 #5
You don't have to have a good imagination to picture the oppo ads against a Sanders candidacy. MADem Apr 2016 #6
Okay. Joob Apr 2016 #7

nolawarlock

(1,729 posts)
3. She will win.
Wed Apr 27, 2016, 04:09 AM
Apr 2016

Trump is so acerbic, so racist, and so horrid, that most Republicans I know refuse to vote for him. Most of them hate Hillary with the fires of hell and plan to vote for her over Trump.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
6. You don't have to have a good imagination to picture the oppo ads against a Sanders candidacy.
Wed Apr 27, 2016, 04:17 AM
Apr 2016

It would get ugly, pervy and shit-flingy. Those essays are a sinker and a stinker. And most Americans know nothing about them, even though Democrats have been too polite to say too much about them.

And they'd GET those tax returns.

The GOP doesn't hold back.

What do they have against Clinton in that vein? Her husband behaved slightly less badly than Jay Z? Hill had no sister to kick Bill in an elevator? No one cares about that shit any more. And most people do remember the 90s as being a pretty good era for many.

I think HRC is well positioned to win. And it's a good thing.

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