A Look at Intrade: 63.5% CHANCE of Obama Becoming President

[TroyD]

A Look at Intrade:

63.5% CHANCE of Obama Becoming President

61.8% CHANCE of Obama Winning More Than 280 Electoral Votes

50.1% CHANCE of Obama Winning Colorado

67.6% CHANCE of Obama Winning Ohio

67.4% CHANCE of Democrats Winning the Senate

95.1% CHANCE of Republicans Winning the House

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/

[aquart]

1. WHY should they get the House? WHHHYYYY?

[TroyD]

2. Unfortunately the gains in 2010 were so large

That's it's not going to be possible to undo them all in one election.

While there will be Democratic pickups this year (eg. Duckworth beating Walsh etc.), because of the large number of Republican seats gained in 2010, and the re-districting that went on, the hill just looks to steep to climb in one election.

If Obama gets re-elected, and the economy continues to improve, perhaps further pickups will be possible in 2014.

[oldhippydude]

7. correct

the fact that it was a census year means redistricting.. even though the process tends to lock in incumbents, Demographic changes can have a large effect also.. with any kind of luck we can gradually get the house back..

one thing that folks don't realize is that it wasn't that long ago that we were looking at perhaps the republicans taking the senate..instead we are holding our seats, threatening in several others and stand to gain a seat or two..

I'm hoping that after our win this time... we can immediately concentrate on both houses.. the senate is a Little tougher as its 6 year flip, but we should be able to actually have a working government going forward..

[boingboinh]

6. I am still perplexed why Deomcrats didnt do anything when they had the House

I understand the Senate fillibuster but geez it felt like they were dragging their feet on everything. So by not holding the house i actually dont think it matters...we'd still get the same things.

[demwing]

8. Yeah, because HCR never happened /nt

[Cosmocat]

10. And people want to think the Rs are going away ...

Lilly Ledbetter, Sam Sheppard Hate Crime bill.

We haven't had any national HCR in four fricken decades - Clinton lost the House in great part because he tried and failed.

but, sure, BO did nothing his first two years.

[oldhippydude]

9. actually it does not make sense for them to keep obsructing....

remember what Mitch Mc. said.." the first goal is to deny this president a second term".. they have failed to do that.. that's was all the obstruction was, it simply was an effort to make the electorate as uncomfortable as possible... the tactic was cynical in it's conception, and sloppy in it's execution.. in a political environment of corporate news, and unlimited money it almost worked..

the good news for us is that by keeping the POTUS and the Senate we have denied them their primary reason to obstruct... from this point on the only thing further obstruction would accomplish ls to give us more ammunition in 14..

also the recovery while still anemic is in fact recovering.. historically we should have a robust economy by the end of Obama's second term... i would guess that he will be looked at as a great President when the ink is dry..

we can help by getting organized for 14, and hopefully we will have the wind at our backs both demographically and financially..

[Cosmocat]

11. They will keep obstructing

We would agree completely that in one of the most cynical actions by a major political party in our country's history, these scumbags did EVERYTHING they could for four years to styme our recovery, not just in DC, either, but also the state level.

It looks good that we can get this President reelected, pickup a seat or two in the Senate and a handful or two in the House.

And, I tend to agree that business is not going to want to sit on its hands for four more years like it has the last few.

But, the House will be a complete freakshow.

They see their historically low unfavorability, and they see that they are not going to get punished by the voters, and they will feel they can do even more nonsense, and won't be able to help themselves.

[TroyD]

3. Elizabeth Warren = 83.0% CHANCE To Win!

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745936

[Divine Discontent]

4. Warren has run a nice campaign. Even honest Repubs have to admit she's a slight favorite to win.

And how nice to get that seat back into the hands of a thinking person, well, I hope it will. Wish Teddy coulda been in that seat for 2 or 3 more terms. God bless him, he was fantastic.... just fantastic.

[TroyD]

5. I'd say Warren is more than a slight favorite

I'd say that she's a strong favorite.

[Divine Discontent]

12. Yes, I'd say that, also! I said honest repubs, because even they don't wanna admit the truth that

their guy is going down 56-44 on election day!


Get it here --->
http://www.zazzle.com/which_face_today_mitt_romney_bumper_sticker-128778323738073483?rf=238107662556833486

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

13. Warren's campaign has been outstanding

If she'd been the nominee two years ago against the fraud in the pickup truck we'd have held onto Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

[fujiyama]

14. Really impressive

how she has pulled ahead after trailing for quite a while.

It will be good to see Ted's old seat go to someone like Warren, whose life's work has not been dedicated to the interests of the top 1%.