Nate Silver: 538 Update is 73.6% for Obama today

[TroyD]

Down 0.8% from yesterday, but that may be insignificant statistical variation.

I thought Obama might go up a point or so today because of the good Virginia poll.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[NCLefty]

1. Still looking fantastic.

[BlueDemKev]

2. What about the storm??

What's the plan for getting our voters to the polls if the storm has major impacts on heavily-Democratic areas such as Philadelphia?

[mary195149]

3. I didn't think PA had early voting?

does it?

[BlueDemKev]

4. I don't believe so

But if the damage, etc. is so extensive, poorer folks in inner-city Philadelphia may not be able (or frankly even willing) to get to the polls on Nov. 6. I mean, if your home/condo/apartment has been reduced to firewood and you've lost everything you own, you're probably not going to think a whole lot about going to vote.

[Lugnut]

5. Nope.

This archaic state has no early voting.

[wisteria]

8. No, the Repubs here wouldn't allow something like this.

The storm should be well passed by election day. I just pray there is no lives lost and no major destruction.

[FVZA_Colonel]

6. Do you know when he'll be posting a blog update explaining the change?

Unless the one from 5:16 PM was the update, in which case ignore this.

[TroyD]

10. Sometimes Nate just sends a Tweet explaining the update

On his 538 Twitter account.

He doesn't always write a full blog post when the Model only changes by 1%.

[FVZA_Colonel]

11. I guess I haven't paid as much attention as I should.

Thanks.

[golfguru]

7. Is this poll an outlier or what?

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days

[wisteria]

9. Gallop again. I think we just need to discredit them. n/t

[TroyD]

12. The fact that Obama is taking such wild swings in Gallup's approval

May be a clue that their Obama-Romney numbers are off.

For example, it's not just that Gallup all of a sudden has Obama's approval so low, it's that only a week or so ago it was at a yearly high of 53 or 54%. Now it's plunged to 46%? What happened over the course of the past week to cause that?

[FVZA_Colonel]

14. And given that so many others seemed to show him gaining ground around the country,

if in voting leads only and not job-approval numbers as well, it really does seem to indicate that something's off with their numbers.

[golfguru]

17. Only one item I can think of is Benghazi n/t

[gravity]

13. Every two days forward, expect one back.

I don't see the move being that significant. There were good gains the past couple of days, so a pull back should be expected.

I wouldn't worry unless it goes below 70%

[OhZone]

15. Gallup is deja vu all over again!

I seem to remember them having insane swings about this time the last three elections.

I do not trust them or rasmussen. Don't really trust any of them, but they're the worst. Oh and maybe gravis.

Oh well.

[TroyD]

16. Now I see why Obama decreased slightly in the forecast and in OHIO

Didn't see this poll reported today, but Nate posted it. Turns out the U. of Cincinnati published an Ohio poll showing a TIE. Obama dropped to 73% for Ohio.

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/presidential-race-tied-in-ohio-newspaper-poll-1.345675


But Obama's odds of winning Virginia went up to 60% because of the good Washington Post Virginia poll.


Also looks like there was a poll for Nevada by something called Callfire showing Obama +4 that raised Obama to 80%.

https://www.callfire.com/sites/default/files/pdf/press/NEVADA_PRES_POLL.pdf