2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary leads Bernie by only 235 - There are 1,400 still up for grabs
Hillary has garnered approximately 235 more pledged delegate votes from primaries and caucuses than Bernie has (1,443 to 1,208).
But a third of the total pledged delegates haven't been taken yet. There are still another 1,400 pledged delegates available from the states and territories that haven't yet voted.
Anyone saying that it's impossible for Bernie to win the nomination isn't being honest.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)And they had even more of a right to make it since the pledged delegate totals were closer. It didn't matter.
In the Democratic nomination contest with proportionally allocated delegates, leads become insurmountable very quickly. Even a 50-75 delegate lead is hard to make up. Once it reaches triple digits, forget it.
beedle
(1,235 posts)At this time in 2008 the Pennsylvania primary had just finished. The overall results were:
505 pledged delegates left
Hillary was behind by 129 delegates
------------------------
Today there are 1400 delegates left
Bernie is behind by 235
That means Hillary had about 3.9 times the delegates left as she needed to tie.
Meanwhile Bernie has 5.9 times the delegates left that he needs to tie.
George II
(67,782 posts)....raw numbers is pointless without normalizing them first.
beedle
(1,235 posts)I thought you Hillary supporters were suppose to understand math?
George II
(67,782 posts)beedle
(1,235 posts)Normalization is simply using a common scale.
The 'common scale' in this case would be the percentage of the remaining needed to reach a tie (or win if you prefer.)
The part where I show the "3.9 times' vs the "5.9 times"? ... unless you're totally unfamiliar with math then you might recognize this is what normalizing the numbers means ... ie. Hillary needed to win approximately 26% (1/3.9) of the remaining delegates where Sanders only needs to win 17% (1/5.9) of the remaining delegates.
There's really nothing complicated about this math, unless of course you have a different meaning for 'math' ... which I would ask you to explain, since I always like a good joke.
George II
(67,782 posts)And you're commenting on my math skills?
Okay, I'll play your game, beedle. How do you arrive at this 17% for Sanders and 26% for Clinton with Clinton ahead by 241 delegates? So you're trying to tell us that the candidate with fewer delegates needs a lower percentage of the remaining delegates to win?
beedle
(1,235 posts)No, that's not at all what I'm saying ... I'm saying that the ratio of needed delegates as compared to the total remaining delegates is lower for Sanders than it was for Hillary at this date in 2008.
ie: if I need 100 delegates and there are 1000 delegates left to get, and you need 100 delegates but there are only 500 left to get, you are not in as good a position as I am ... this is the case comparing Sanders and Clinton ... at the same date in 2008, Clinton was not in as good a position as Sanders is now, and yet she decided she needed to stay in the race.
So, the statement made by Steve up-thread, and to which I was responding "And they had even more of a right to make it since the pledged delegate totals were closer" was wrong.
George II
(67,782 posts)why don't you simply give us the actual numbers each candidate needs and what % of the remaining delegates that represents?
Okay, I'll do it for you.
There are 1400 "pledged" delegates remaining, and 2026 are required for a majority of "pledged" delegates.
Hillary Clinton has 1446, Sanders has 1205. So, Clinton needs 580 more delegates, Sanders 821. Of the remaining 1400 pledged delegates, Clinton needs 41% (580/1400) and Sanders needs 59% (821/1400)
True?
beedle
(1,235 posts)Here is the original post being responded to.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1826179
It is specifically about the comparison of where Hillary stood in April around this date in 2008 (NOT Hillary in 2016,) with where Sanders currently stands in 2016 at this date.
Anything else you'd like to pretend to not understand before I go to bed?
George II
(67,782 posts)...from a Sanders win.
beedle
(1,235 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)beedle
(1,235 posts)you were wrong, you passively admitted as much, I'm a big person and I can move one.
Further groveling for forgiveness is totally unnecessary.
George II
(67,782 posts)....how a candidate with less delegates needs a lower % of remaining delegates to win?
As I said, it's "Devine/Weaver" math turned upside down.
beedle
(1,235 posts)ie. being purposely stupid.
when comparing where Hillary was in 2008 and Bernie is in 2016 in terms of percentage of remaining delegates needed to win.
Hillary, with 509 remaming delegates and behind 129 delegates needed to win (509/2)+129+ 1 delegates or 384.5 delegates.
Bernie with 1400 remaining delegates and behind 235 delegates needs to win (1400/2)+235+1 delegates or 936 delegates.
so in terms of percent needed to win, Hillary needed on April 24, 2008, 384.5/509 or ~75% of her remaining delegates.
Bernie needs on April 24, 2016 936/1400 or 67% of the remaining delegates.
Either way, using her ratio of needed votes as compared to remaining votes (Bernie for example had a ratio of 17 to 100 or 5.9 times more votes available than the number of votes he is behind ... NOT the same thing as the percentage of votes needed as compared to the votes remaining) or the percentage of votes needed as compared to remaining votes, Bernie is in a better position.
The numbers are here,
Bernie 1400 delegates remaining and is behind by 235 vs
Hilary 505 delegates remaining and was behind by 129
show me your math that shows Hillary was better off than Bernie is now.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)for Sanders than it was for Clinton on this same day and month in 2008, so he needs a smaller % of the pool than she did!
Math...
Ino
(3,366 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)With the way proportional delegate allocation works, it is virtually impossible for Sander to make up ground at this point.
If you'd like to try though, might I suggest http://demrace.com ? Show us where he makes up enough pledged delegates, save your link and post it here.
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)You forget to add in z which is the corruption variable into it. Err not corruption I mean voter irregularities.
You're right!
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)YouDig
(2,280 posts)kennetha
(3,666 posts)i.e. he has to beat her 818 - 582 or thereabouts.
Corporate666
(587 posts)1400 delegates left.
25% of them are up for vote on Tuesday. Hillary is leading in all 3 of the 5 states with polls, in 2 of them by double digits (and those 2 make up 70% of all the delegates up for grabs on Tuesday).
Nobody believes Bernie will catch up in Tuesday, we all know he will fall further behind - the only question is by how much.
There are 1,000 delegates from that point on, 70% of them are from CA and NJ - both states where Bernie is losing.
He will drop out shortly, likely within a week from today. He has no path to the nomination. Hopefully the delusional Sanders supporters will accept this once Sanders loses badly on Tuesday.
A man needs to know when he's beaten.
TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)Who all talk as if Hillary has already won and the election is over.
George II
(67,782 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)I bumped the other thread just for you. Did you not see it?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511823882
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)....of 1050.
Oooops, no matter how you guys slice them and dice them, Sanders comes up short.
George II
(67,782 posts)It's 1446 to 1205 - http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml
Each week that passes the lead increases and the number of available delegates remaining decreases.
As the saying goes, they're hoping against hope.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Overcoming such a delegate lead is easier said than done.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)The proportional system used to divide the delegates means Sanders must win every primary by 58%+.
It also means that Clinton can lose every primary, and as long as Sanders is kept below that 58%+ number in one primary, he can not win.
Now, when you look at the polls in the upcoming primaries this Tuesday, it is clear that Sanders is not gong to come anywhere near his required number. He will lose most of them on Tuesday, and continue losing most of them until the end.
Impossible, no. But he would need a real miracle, and Democrats are just not that much into him to give him a miracle.
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)still_one
(92,219 posts)of an uphill climb for Sanders
insta8er
(960 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Keep up the good work.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)Bernie will lose those overwhelmingly.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)utopia_basin
(23 posts)The fact is, Sanders need to win with a landslide in all the upcoming states..