Rhode Island final County benchmarks; 53% Clinton - 47% Sanders

[brooklynite]

Bechmark Politics:

The Ocean State of Rhode Island promises to be a tight race as the model expects the electorate to be rather competitive for Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton. Overall, Clinton enjoys a moderate but not insurmountable lead of 6% over Sanders. With the lack of polling and the small nature of the primary it is more difficult to project the outcome however looking solely at demographics we are able to get a reasonable benchmark for both candidates. Most of Clinton’s support will come from one area while the rest of the state looks favorable for Sanders. The important thing to note about Rhode Island is that over half the vote is going to come from one county which so happens to be the most favorable for Clinton thus giving her the slight advantage. Due to the fact that this is a much smaller state and how successful the Sanders campaign has been in their grassroots effort there is plenty of room for him to not only make up the deficit in the benchmarks but surpass them greatly. Rhode Island will also be the only primary that is not completely closed which has been the kryptonite for Sanders as he has done unbelievably well with independent voters as well as cross over republicans.

Expected Baseline: 53% Clinton - 47% Sanders

[riversedge]

1. Thanks for the post.

[griffi94]

2. I figured RI is Bernies best chance for a win Tuesday

Still I'm crossing my fingers for a sweep.

I think a sweep would be a reality check for a lot of people.

[Lucinda]

3. Interesting numbers! Thank you!