Kasich crushes Clinton in polls; Sanders beats Kasich

[TheDormouse]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html#polls

In 15 national polls since the beginning of the year, Kasich has consistently beat Clinton.

But in polls between Kasich and Sanders, Sanders beats, or runs neck and neck with, Kasich.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html#polls

[drm604]

1. I know. I think the party is supporting the less viable candidate.

[BillZBubb]

2. If the repubs run someone they can sell as "moderate" against Hillary, they win.

The independent voters will decide the election. A "moderate" republican wins that block easily.

[RKP5637]

50. TPTB in the democratic party just don't get it. I think HRC is going to have a very rough time

of it in the GE, especially depending on who the R's put up against her. Also, Trump is a showman, he might do a total remake for the GE if the nominee.

[Mike__M]

53. Trump's friends have already admitted

that his primary performance is an act.

[RKP5637]

54. That's what I've thought too for quite awhile. He did what he had to do to snag the

momentum and to get that voting sector which he knew he could easily grab. Now, he's shifting to a new act/role/mode. He's no dummy.

[griffi94]

3. It's a really good thing then

that Kasich isn't going to be their nominee.

[LyndaG]

4. He only won his home state

I wonder why the Republican Primary voters aren't supporting Kasich.

[we can do it]

11. Hes a twitchy lying sack of shit?

[merrily]

44. That can't be the reason. So are Trump and Cruz.

Okay, I admit it: They're less twitchy.

[LondonReign2]

79. I don't think it's possible to be more twitchy than Cruz

[merrily]

82. I refuse to participate in twitchy wars!!11!!

Trying to pick the worst Republican is a losing fight.

[LondonReign2]

84. Ha ha, you are so right

[MadBadger]

5. Kasich isn't going to be the nominee

[TheCowsCameHome]

12. Neither is Trump.

A time to worry, Hill.

[onenote]

78. Who is?

[TheCowsCameHome]

85. That's anyone's guess at this point.

The place is a mess over there.

[woolldog]

6. And yet, neither of them will run in the GE

So those polls are meaningless. Neither will be their party's nominee.

[Betty Karlson]

7. There is writing on the wall, superdelegates. Please read it.

[HereSince1628]

8. Maybe I don't get it, but this is how I see it...

Kasich sells himself as a 'reasonable' republican, Clinton sells herself as a centrist. The market toward targets in the middle, BUT

Kasich follows the Kochs, much like Scott Walker, while Clinton follows Wall St Financiers.

[SFnomad]

9. Maybe Kasich and Sanders can run a mock election and pretend it's for third place n/t

[brush]

10. Heehee! I like that. Bet that sly snark will get you slammed by Sanders supporters though.

[Kittycat]

35. Funny since Kasich supported the Clinton's disastrous budget

In the 90's.

[SFnomad]

37. Clinton's disastrous budget? The one that got us a balanced budget and a simultaneously

strong economy? Where do you live? Republicanville?

[Kittycat]

49. I guess it depends on how you look at it...

https://theintercept.com/2016/02/13/john-kasich-and-the-clintons-collaborated-on-law-that-helped-double-extreme-poverty-in-america/



Through the eyes of a republican that doesn't care about who it hurts, or the eyes of a democrat, who does.

[SFnomad]

63. That wasn't Clinton's "disastrous budget", but was actually

the "Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act" aka as "welfare reform". It goes through the Budget Committee because it spends money, but it wasn't "the budget". Now if you had said that "welfare reform" has had a disastrous effect ... I would have agreed with you, up to a point.

I believe there are people that are on welfare for life (or close to it) that really shouldn't be there ... and there are those that should be allowed to remain, that have been kicked off because of this reform. It's a very hard balancing act to keep the undeserving off while keeping those you want on ... and the reform has done a terrible job of that. I would rather have seen no reform than what this reform did.

[Cal33]

88. Do you happen to have any info on what might have happened to some of those who got

kicked off welfare. Were there any known cases of death from illness, starvation ....?

[AzDar]

13. K & R

[angrychair]

14. You heard it here

The republican GE ticket will be Cruz/Kasich

A south/northeast rustbelt ticket with a perceived republican hardliner and a moderate. It's a classic ticket that republicans would be foolish to ignore. They won't...that is their best winning ticket.

If that is their ticket, there is only one person that can beat them and it isn't Clinton.

[TheDormouse]

16. That ticket is conceivable, but can it win? Hmmm

Scary thought.

[TheDormouse]

17. Why do people think Kasich won't get the GOP nomination?

[litlbilly]

18. Cant wait till tomorrow's primaries are done. Hopefully Bernie has a good day and

then maybe they'll start paying attention to those national polls.

[Cali_Democrat]

19. There's a problem:

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/hillary-clinton-now-leads-the-polls-in-the-next-six-states/24576/

[TheDormouse]

22. Dailynewsbin?

[Cali_Democrat]

26. Polling average?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/April26Dem.html

[TheDormouse]

20. "They"? Which they do you mean?

There seem to be a lot of people who have made up their minds and have no intention of changing them no matter what.

[litlbilly]

24. M$M mostly. They have been ignoring those polls saying Hillary does better in the GE even though

that's not the case.

[hack89]

25. What constitutes a good day to you? nt

[litlbilly]

27. win PA, Ct, RI and tie in the rest. It's still all about turnout and who counts the votes.

If he does close to that it would be a great day and that would set up OR and CA to finish it. IMO of course.

[hack89]

29. Too many closed primaries, don't you think?

can Bernie win without Independents? Registered Democrats have overwhelming gone to Clinton so far.

[litlbilly]

32. true, but at least they didnt have to chose what to do 6 months ago like NY. Maybe that'll

pan out. I am most concerned about the counting of the votes. We need to get a handle on this now.

[hack89]

36. No reason to think there will be big problems with vote counting

unless you really think there is a coordinated multi-state conspiracy to tip the vote towards Hillary. Is that what you believe?

[litlbilly]

41. There is overwhelming evidence that there is election fraud going on. It doesnt really matter

who's doing it but it needs to be nipped in the bud now. So far, in the contested states, all the alleged fraud seems to favor Clinton. That's not just an opinion. I just worry people will stay home if they think their vote doesn't matter or will even be counted.

[hack89]

48. It didn't favor Hillary in NY. She lost votes.

the areas where the voting rolls were purged went heavily for Hillary.

[Svafa]

60. I wouldn't say that there has been a conspiracy,

but there have been undeniable problems in multiple states. You can argue the reasons for it, but that doesn't mean that it hasn't happened, nor that it can't happen again.

[hack89]

62. There are always problems in every election

it is because of how we conduct elections and who is responsible for carrying them out. Between political patronage jobs on elections boards, poor funding, antiquated technology and hoards of poorly trained volunteers that man the polls it is no surprise.

[litlbilly]

38. I think registered dems are getting the message, slowly but it is trending towards Bernie, even

with the media blackout. We'll see. As you say Indies, Bernie has been dominating them, me included, I registered as a Dem in OR this year, and it will be my first primary. Ive been voting dem since 72 but its my first primary. The indies are the main reason Bernie will clean any repub clock in the GE IMHO.

[hack89]

40. "Media blackout"? Really? nt

[litlbilly]

42. I see where youre going, baiting whatever. Im done witih you. ignore

[hack89]

46. Typical immature BernieBro response. So fucking sensitive it is not even funny.

no wonder the "revolution" is such a failure.

[Demsrule86]

69. Nope

There is no trend towards Bernie...going to be big losses this week for Bernie.

[litlbilly]

34. I forgot to add Indiana, I think Bernie has a good chance there.

[Godhumor]

21. Kasich v Sanders represents a match up that will never happen

As there is no chance whatsoever Kasich is getting the nomination (Cruz will win if it goes to 2nd ballot, as he's stuffed the delegate selection process) and a minimal chance Sanders will get the Democratic nomination.

[Svafa]

61. What about a Cruz/Kasich ticket? That would strategically be a decent move from the Repub party,

though there would still be a lot of very angry Drumpf supporters to recon with.

[Nye Bevan]

23. My guess is that out there in the real world few people have heard of Kasich.

But most people have heard of Sanders, so they pick the name they know when answering the poll.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

28. Dont know who they are polling but the Clinton figures are ridiculous.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

30. Kasich won't be their nominee

It'll be Trump or Paul Ryan

[artyteacher]

31. yeah...

Most low into voters don't know about Sender's huge negatives.

[KingFlorez]

33. Kasich or Sanders will not be on the ballot in November

[Mike Nelson]

39. When the Republicans finish with Sanders...

...Kasich would win. But the match-up will never happen... This citing of polls favoring Sanders isn't working, either, in his primary contest against Clinton.

[litlbilly]

47. Bernie will take out any repub with ease. There is nothing the repuds can do. Just watch and see.

[Mike Nelson]

56. I think it will not be easy...

...not at all... we would have to work extremely hard to elect Bernie and defeat Kasich, under this scenario. Kasich is way too regressive, although he comes across as folksy and fair. He will, hopefully, never become President.

[litlbilly]

57. No, it won't be easy, but nothing worthwhile ever is.

[oasis]

43. The X factor: 3 or more Supreme Court vacancies. (eom)

[JoePhilly]

45. Kasich will be wathing the General Election from his sofa.

[NCTraveler]

51. How do Sanders and Clinton match up in the Democratic Primary?

You do know that it isn't the person who makes it to the end with the least delegates who wins, right?

[RufusTFirefly]

52. These polls are obviously right wing and sexist!

What other explanation could there be?



Except math, perhaps.

[Sparkly]

55. Neither Sanders nor Kasich has had the other party lay a glove on them.

Wonder why.

[brooklynite]

58. yawn...

...it's nice that the Sanders people have finally found polls they can trust, but have you ever noticed that elections don't end after the Conventions, even though polling will say that one candidate is head?

Even if national, head to head polling, seven months out of candidates who haven't been selected yet was accurate, it's only a barometer of potential intent. Both candidates will still have to fight like hell to win, and I have more comfort with Clinton's ability to raise $1 B for a GE, her ability to withstand Republican negative campaigning, and her mainstream political platform vs that of a self-described Socialist.

[Dem2]

59. Unless you actually look at the most recent polls!!

POLLSTER DATES POP. KASICH CLINTON UNDECIDED OTHER SPREAD
Ipsos/Reuters 4/16 - 4/20 1,334 RV 32 40 13 15 Clinton +8
Morning Consult 4/15 - 4/17 2,032 RV 39 42 19 - Clinton +3

Wrong again.

[snowy owl]

64. Wonder how it will go after this Kasich-Cruz fiasco. They both look foolish and untrustworthy.

Cruz and Kasich I mean. Not Clinton.

[TheDormouse]

65. Hmm. Where to start with that?

Some might call what you're engaged in cherry-picking--looking for polls that fit the outcome you want.

The Ipsos/Reuters and Morning Consult polls (a) are not the most recent polls and (b) are internet polls with as-yet unproven track records.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/upshot/online-polls-are-rising-so-are-concerns-about-their-results.html

The USA Today poll is more recent.

It's interesting that the two polls you chose are the ones that consistently have been leaning toward a Clinton over Kasich win. The only other pollster that has reported a Clinton win over Kasich since January was CNN, in a single poll.
edit:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-kasich-vs-clinton

(this was the wrong link--ignore for this post:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html)

[Dem2]

67. The Suffolk poll wasn't up when I posted

Crushing kind of implies no polls favoring Clinton. Even the average of 3% is nothing close to "crushing".

I can laugh about this since Kasich is a non-candidate anyway, just posted to show that you have an agenda here.

[TheDormouse]

71. *I* have an agenda? Pot, meet kettle.

[TheDormouse]

66. But if it makes you feel any better

here's what Morning Consult pollsters had to say recently after looking at 3 months of their polls of 44,000 registered voters across the US:

(I)f the election were held today, John Kasich would receive 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 234, largely due to strong performances in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MRP_whitepaper-5-1.pdf

[Demsrule86]

68. let me tell you about Kasich...as I live in Ohio

Kasich is a ultra-conservative who has enacted the worst abortion law in the country...one where women can not go to a public hospital after an abortion if there are complications. In fact, if a woman comes in bleeding out...the doctor must first decide if it is an abortion or a miscarriage...not always easy to tell. Kasich has destroyed education here. Also there is a charter school scandal where is cronies have been misusing taxpayer money that is about to break. He also claims to have expanded medicaid, but try to use it...in short he is a Republican and once is known...will lose.

[TheDormouse]

74. and yet

Republican presidential candidate and Gov. John Kasich has surged to an all-time high job approval rating among voters in his home state of Ohio, according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

More than six in 10—62 percent—said they approve of the job their governor is doing. Kasich, a GOP presidential candidate, drew just 29 percent disapproval. The numbers are in line with Kasich's previous high of 61 percent to 28 percent in August, still within the statistical margin of error.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/poll-john-kasich-ohio-approval-numbers-214549

[amborin]

70. K&R

[Tarc]

72. If by some shenanigan-filled miracle Kasich gets the nomination, the GOP will implode

It doesn't matter what his projected matchups are now, and this far out they are also kinda bullshit anyways. If the GOP is ass backwards enough to to nominate someone that won a single state...his home one, at that...right-wing voters will sit home by the tens of thousands.

[GreatGazoo]

75. scary

[Dem2]

81. Untrue

[GreatGazoo]

86. a tie? like Bush v Gore we know how those work out

[Dem2]

87. It's silly to be concerned about matchup polls 7 months away before either candidate has been

nominated.

So, you were lied to - it's not even close to the language described in the O/P ("crushed&quot .

But instead of being annoyed at the O/P, you simply move the goalposts?

[GreatGazoo]

89. Yes scary, the stakes are very high in this election

you respond twice then lose and complain and say the whole thing is silly

Clinton's line is falling like dead quail in YOUR graph and you are

??

[DamnYankeeInHouston]

76. That's the bottom line. Hillary should get out of the way and let Bernie beat the Republicans.

[Gothmog]

77. Neither Sanders nor Kasich have been vetted and so their polling is not reliable

Sanders will not do well in the general in that he has not been vetted. The polling cited in the OP is bogus in that Sanders has not been vetted and no negative ads have been run against him http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-sanders-superdelegates-pennsylvania-20160424-story.html

Many Clinton-friendly superdelegates turned to Barack Obama in 2008, she says, but only after he built a comfortable lead. Those superdelegates helped Obama close out the race; Clinton conceded that June.

"If you can't argue that you won the most popular votes, it's hard to go to people who are close to Hillary and think she would be a very good president and argue that they should start switching," Kamarck said.

Sanders has said he is at a disadvantage in states like New York and Pennsylvania, where independents can't vote in primaries. He called Clinton "the candidate of the establishment" in a recent interview with CBS but said superdelegates would come to his side when they realized "we are defeating Trump by much larger numbers" than Clinton in polls.

That argument is fragile, though; polls of hypothetical general election matchups at this stage of a presidential race generally have little relationship with an outcome. "We are sophisticated enough to know that that's because no one has done a negative ad about Sen. Sanders, whereas she has taken incoming for 23 years," Rendell said of Clinton.

Yes, Sanders negatives are lower now because Sanders has not been vetted or had millions and millions dollars of negative ads run against him. The premise of the OP is simply false

[MFM008]

80. Kasich isnt going anywhere

and if he did, he will find himself under the hot lights.

[doc03]

83. Kasich hasn't done a thing for Ohio, he claims Obama's

economic recovery as his doing.