Hillary can't win the nomination before the convention

[TheDormouse]

Two things to be mindful of:

First, History

Let's go to the videotape

February 2008
Superdelegates switching allegiance to Obama

Hillary Clinton is starting to lose her overwhelming lead in superdelegates, the Democratic party officials whose votes she is counting on to help her close the gap with Barack Obama.... After once leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in the superdelegate chase, Clinton now has 241 to his 181, according to the latest Associated Press tally.

Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama's.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/23/uselections2008.barackobama

May 2008
Barack Obama erased Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-imposing lead among superdelegates Saturday when he added more endorsements from the group of Democrats who will decide the party's nomination for president.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/24556427/ns/politics-decision_08/t/obama-takes-lead-superdelegates-ap-reports/

Second, Math

Hillary is unlikely to win enough pledged delegates in the remaining primaries to be able to clinch the nomination before the superdelegates can vote at the convention.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-is-right-on-super_b_9695718.html

Hillary has already won 1,443 pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses.
(This is 538's count as of last night. Other sources report slightly different numbers; Bloomberg says 1,428; NY Times/AP says 1,446. We'll keep it simple and use 1,443.)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

Based on polls summarized at RealClearPolitics, we are looking at the following in upcoming primaries (I've tried to generally lean toward using the figures that give Hillary a higher percentage of votes; so for Pennsylvania, for example, I used 55%):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Legend:
state---total pledged delegates available---Hillary's predicted take (based on polling)---Hillary's likely delegates yield

CT 55--0.51--28
MD 95--0.58--55
PA 189--0.55--104
IN 83--0.48--40
CA 475--0.48--228
NJ 126--0.53--67

(In other words, for Connecticut, for example, there are 55 total pledged delegates available. Polling predicts Hillary will win about 51% of the votes, meaning about 51% of the pledged delegates will be awarded to her. 51% of 55 means she should get about 28 pledged delegates from Connecticut, based on recent polls.)

total pledged delegates Hillary is likely to win from these 6 states, based on recent polling:
28 + 55 + 104 + 40 + 228 + 67 = 522

That will give Hillary 1,443 + 522 = 1,965 pledged delegates.

There are an additional 13 states & territories that will also contribute pledged delegates, but I haven't seen polling for them, so I can't say what fraction Hillary is currently expected to win. These states/territories are:

DE 21
RI 24
Guam 7
WV 29
KY 55
OR 61
Virgin Is 7
PR 60
MT 21
NM 34
ND 18
SD 20
DC 20

The total yield from all of these latter states/territories is 377. In other words, if Hillary were to win 100% of all the pledged delegates from these states/territories where we don't have good polling, she would take an additional 377 delegates. (Obviously, she won't win ALL of their delegates in reality.)

The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,383.

Since Hillary's pledged delegates haul is likely to be 1,965 after the 6 upcoming states for which we do have polls, she will need 2,383 - 1,965 = 418 additional pledged delegates from the states/territories for which we don't have good recent polls.

However, as noted above, even if she won ALL of the pledged delegates from those 13 states/territories, she would only get an additional 377 delegates. So she would still fall short by 418 - 377 = 41 pledged delegates.

Of course, anything could happen in the next few weeks. The polls could dramatically change based on a terrorist attack or huge gaffe or something--or the polls could just be wrong.

But if the polls are reasonably accurate and do not significantly change, and if my math is right, Hillary can't win this race by pledged delegates alone. She will have to make her case to superdelegates to stick with her--and they can't vote until the convention.

So any claims that the race is over and Bernie should drop out now are just Hillary camp propaganda. The nominee will be decided in Philadelphia at the end of July at the convention.

[firebrand80]

1. They went to Obama because he was winning PDs

So that argument doesn't help Bernie

[TheDormouse]

2. Wow, you're a fast reader

[firebrand80]

3. You're an astute point-dodger nt

[berniepdx420]

51. we are going to the convention...

If you don't like it ..get enough votes to win it... otherwise.. we will see you in Philly... and we will acquire seats of consequence on the Democratic Committee.. and thus we begin the retaking of our party from the DINOs

[silvershadow]

54. +1.

[JimDandy]

55. Seats on the DNC are extremely important to the Progressive Revolution.

Every state left is going to get a chance to vote for SBS.

DWS and the corruption of the DNC will not be allowed to stand if Bernie Progressives gain enough seats.

[Demsrule86]

62. We understand how it works

That is why we knew before New York that Bernie Sanders lost.

[still_one]

82. and that is exactly what they will do this time. The SD will go to the candidate with the most

PLEDGED DELEGATES

[TheDormouse]

83. if they do, they still can't do that until the end of July

So any pronouncements that the race is over now are highly premature.

[still_one]

88. Ok

[griffi94]

4. The superdelegates

will vote for who has the has the most pledged delegates.

Tuesday will be the last day that Bernie can even pretend
he's going to win the nomination.

[TheDormouse]

5. The superdelegates cannot vote until the end of July

which is still months away from Tuesday

[griffi94]

6. And at the end of july they vote for who has the most pledged delegates

That's Hillary.

[TheDormouse]

7. Maybe, maybe not. If it was that straightfoward, why are there superdelegates in the

first place?

[griffi94]

11. To give the party some measure of control

but they won't set aside aside
an election that's this one sided.

If the pledged delegate count was really close
and all the other elements of this primary
equal then the supers might be a factor.

But this is a blow out.
Hillary is going to be the nominee.

[JimDandy]

56. There will be no Hillary blowout after CA and OR get to vote for Bernie.

We are going all the way to the convention. It will be clear to you by then how much the more progressive states in the west do not support conservative candidates like Hillary Clinton.

No more dynasties-No more Bushes and No More Clintons.

GO BERNIE!

[griffi94]

57. No you're incorrect

Bernie is already starting to downshift his campaign.
In the last 2 days there have been statements that after Tuesday they'll re-evaluate and see what their
best option going forward is.

After Tuesday his winning will be a statistical impossibility.

On the Sunday pundit shows
Bernie said he realized his path now was very narrow.
After Tuesday it's closed.

He also said of course he would work hard to get as many Democrats
elected in November as possible because nobody wanted
the White House back in conservative hands.

Time for Bernie to be a team player
and help Hillary put this away.

[Samantha]

91. Tad Devine made the first statement and Bernie Sanders said he had no idea what Tad meant by that

Neither Sanders or Clinton will have enough pledged delegates to hit the magic number before the convention, UNLESS OF COURSE SANDERS DROPS OUT WHICH HE IS NOT GOING TO DO.

Sanders did say his path was narrow but did not say after Tuesday it was closed.

Sanders is going all the way to the convention, as he has told his supporters many times.

If Hillary Clinton cannot stand on her own two feet against one opponent in a primary without constantly having her surrogates step out and say Sanders is hurting her, perhaps she should be the one to drop out. The only one who hurts Hillary is Hillary. It is that judgment thing....

Sam

[Demsrule86]

64. You live in lala land.

He has lost...he may get out after the brutal beating he will take next week.

[brush]

86. What in the world makes you thing Sanders will win in such a diverse state as California?

It's been shown repeatedly that he doesn't do well in states with a large POC demographic.

[brush]

84. So that there's not another McGovern. He lost 49 of 50 states in the general election

That's the reason for the super delegates. They will go with the person with the most pledged delegates, and in this case — Clinton v Sanders — the person with the most votes (more than Trump as well, btw).

[TheDormouse]

89. did McGovern have the most pledged delegates?

[brush]

90. He did, but California at the time was winner take all and that push him over the top.

His unprecedent 49-1 drubbing in the general though was why the party when to super delegates

[Demsrule86]

63. They announce their Votes

Sanders pleads with them to give it to him even though he has fewer delegates and lost the popular vote...ey say no Bernie Sander we will not change our minds...he bows out and that is that. Now if he wants to be a jerk about it . They vote for her at the convention first ballot, and Bernie is finished politically..having screwed over all Democrats...but she is still the nominee.

[Dem2]

8. You posted a lot of information that's a little premature

Let's see how this coming Tuesday goes and then I think we'll know a little bit more about the direction of this primary.

[tritsofme]

9. In the most literal sense, no one can win the nomination before the convention.

Pledged and super-delegates vote at the same time, making a distinction now is a meaningless one for the point you are trying to make.

When as in 2008 with Obama, Hillary clinches 2383 of combined pledged and SDs, the race will be as over as it possibly can be prior to convention balloting.

[TheDormouse]

10. Except

Superdelegates can change their minds about any endorsements at any time. Pledged delegate votes, by contrast, are set in stone. If either candidate were to reach 2383 by pledged delegates count tomorrow, the race would be over. That's the difference. Pledged delegate counts are real right now. Superdelegate counts don't mean anything other than propaganda until the end of July.

[tritsofme]

12. And pledged delegates could be unfaithful, not show up, etc.

Is that less likely to occur than a SD changing his mind? Sure, but probably not by very much. Especially when one candidate leads by millions of votes and hundreds of pledged delegates.

Obama set the precedent in 2008, the nomination is clinched to the point that it can be when one candidate can command support from an absolute majority of delegates.

[Codeine]

23. They're not going to change their minds.

Not when she's wiped the electoral floor with Sanders. To believe they will overturn that margin of victory is asinine and desperate.

This notion that the will of the people should be overturned is literally all you've got left, and it's pathetic.

[TheDormouse]

27. just like back in 2008, right?

[Codeine]

29. They switched to back the winner.

They won't switch to back the loser, especially the loser who has spent his whole life deriding their party.

I'm not at all certain why that simple equation confuses so many of you.

[JimDandy]

58. Glad you agree that the will of the people should not be overturned

in states Sanders has won, especially in blowout states like WA, AK, HI, UT, ID, NH, VT and the rest.

Thanks for your support. From your mouth to the superdelegates' ears.

[Beacool]

13. You spent a lot of time on something that would have taken only one sentence to explain.

In 2008, super delegates switched to Obama for the simple reason that he was ahead in the pledged delegate count by 102 delegates. Hillary will have triple Obama's pledged delegate count. She' also far ahead in the popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

[TheDormouse]

15. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

The first section of the OP was just to make the point that superdelegate counts don't count until they are cast at the convention.

Superdelegates can say whatever they want prior to then, but until the convention, their pronouncements are meaningless. 2008 proved that point.

What this thread is really about is that this race is not yet over. Hillary does not have the math, despite what the media and Hillary's supporters are claiming.

[Beacool]

22. Yes, you're correct, super delegates don't vote until the convention.

Where I think you are having more wishful thinking than facts is in your assumption that for all intent and purposes this nomination process is not over. Sanders is entitled to stay until all votes are cast, but he has no realistic path to the nomination. Barring some unforeseen event, Hillary will be the nominee.

[TheDormouse]

24. We've seen plenty of "inevitable" candidates go down in defeat.

[Beacool]

61. Sigh.........

I'm done discussing this with you. You fail to see the reality on the ground.

[LiberalFighter]

31. Pledged delegates don't vote until the convention either.

But the outcome is known before hand.

[sadoldgirl]

16. I don't quite understand this.

I thought it was not the popular voters that counted.
It was all about the delegates. Which is it now?

[Beacool]

19. If the pledged delegate count was razor thin and one candidate was far ahead in the popular vote,

then maybe super delegates would take it into consideration. That won't happen this year. Hillary is way ahead on both counts: super delegates and the popular vote.

[tritsofme]

20. Take your pick. Hillary leads big in both.

[TheDormouse]

36. see post #32

[bjo59]

14. The nice thing is that Clinton Camp super confident dismissals of the point you are making

have no effect on the reality of the situation whatsoever.

[TheDormouse]

17. They're trying to demoralize potential Sanders supporters

so that people who might have voted for Sanders in upcoming elections stay home (or vote for the so-called inevitable candidate). If that were to happen, say, if Hillary won 80% of California, that could change the math. Or if Sanders supporters stopped contributing donations to his campaign, that could make it harder for him to continue to remain competitive.

[grasswire]

38. yes

plus they are running hard to keep ahead of the FBI. It's all a perceptions game.

[pdsimdars]

87. we should know something in May

[bjo59]

53. I know. I was thinking of adding in something about that, but thought you'd made it obvious.

What I wrote was more in line what I would tell a Sanders supporter who was getting demoralized to the point of not contributing any more money, not spreading the word, or even not voting for him if the chance is still there. She obviously does not have this wrapped up and we all need to keep that foremost in our minds no matter what kind of demoralizing tripe manages a temporary infection!

[mythology]

50. Neither does the fervent hope that super delegates will overturn the voters

[Sheepshank]

18. So we're back to comparing this to 2008

I thought we were well past that false equivalency. At what point is Bernie supposed to surpass Hillary in pledged delegates?

[SidDithers]

21. Hillary has already won the nomination...

The only ones who haven't already figured that out are a few of Bernie's supporters.

Sid

[Codeine]

25. Exactly. This shit's been over since Super Tuesday.

Now it's just sad.

[JimDandy]

60. Absolutely NOT true and you know it. Neither Sanders nor Clinton have enough delegates yet

to be the nominee. Hold on to your hat, because really Progressive Dem states like CA and OR are going to give Sanders a huge number of delegates.

The pressure you're feeling now, to try and intimidate Sanders and his supporters into giving up, is going to be really intense for you as all those progressive states come up to vote, so take care of yourself.

I'll leave you with this, unfortunately for you, pressurizing thought: Sanders has won in the states that have more accurately predicted the eventual Democratic nominee in the last 50 years.

[Zynx]

26. Hillary lost super delegates in 2008 because she lost pledged delegates.

She's unquestionably going to win pledged delegates. She'll win the super delegates. They will be firmly in her corner both before and after CA.

The race is over.

[senz]

28. Demoralization is a tool of evil.

Resist it and stay strong.

Pity those who have no conscience.

[LuvLoogie]

40. No Senz. It's called an intervention. We're concerned.

[senz]

44. Yeh, concerned about Hillary's chances!

[LiberalFighter]

30. Several math mistakes made.

First, you use poll percent by itself to determine the delegate count. In the case of Connecticut with 51 - 42 there is 7% not accounted. Which would mean 4 delegates missing. 51 should be calculated as a percent of 51 + 42 or 93. The percent would then be 55 - 45. Giving Clinton 30 delegates instead of 28.

CT - 30 * 25
DE - 11 * 10
MD - 59 * 36
PA - 110 * 79
RI - 13 * 11

The tally there would be 223 * 161 --> Running - Clinton: 1,666 * Sanders: 1,365

IN - 43 * 40

Running - Clinton: 1,709 * Sanders: 1,405

WV - 10 * 19
KY - 32 * 23
OR - No Poll Data

Tally is 42 * 42 --> Running - Clinton: 1,751 * Sanders: 1,447

CA - 254 * 221
MT - 9 * 12
NJ - 69 * 57
NM - 20 * 14
ND - No Poll Data
SD - 16 * 4

Tally is 359 * 308 --> Running - Clinton: 2,110 * Sanders: 1,755

PR - No Poll Data
DC - No Poll Data

Delegates not assigned due to lack of poll data -- 186

With pledged delegates Clinton has 84 delegates more than needed from the pledged group while Sanders is short 271 delegates.

Second, the magic number to win the nomination is based on all delegates. Not just the pledged delegates. 2,383 is 50% +1 of 4,765.

With the current known automatic delegates committed to Clinton the tally would be 2,588. That is 205 more than needed of the total delegates. That doesn't include the 186 that data is not available. As MineralMan pointed out in another post the automatic delegates do not vote after the pledged delegates. They vote as a delegation with their state as one. In the case of California with 475 pledged delegates and 73 automatic delegates they will announce their 548 votes combined. So many votes from the 548 will be for Clinton and so many for Sanders. It will not even be announced votes identified as pledged and for automatic.

[beachbum bob]

33. The math does not like sanders.. How do we sue math?

[LiberalFighter]

34. Ask the Republicans. They have been trying and failing.

Especially with science.

[TheDormouse]

35. Where in all of that does Clinton reach 2,383 WITHOUT superdelegate votes?

That's the basic point. Superdelegate votes do not exist until they actually are cast at the convention.

Even if you reapportion pledged delegate counts to account for missing votes predicted by polling, can Hillary get to 2,383 by pledged delegates alone?

[LiberalFighter]

46. The rules state:

7. Roll Call for Presidential Candidate:

a. After nominations for presidential
candidates have closed, the Convention shall proceed to a roll call vote by states on the selection of
the presidential candidate. The roll call voting shall follow the alphabetical order of the states with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and the territories treated as states for the purpose of the alphabetical roll call.

b. A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the presidential candidate.

c. Delegates may vote for the candidate of their choice whether or not the name of such candidate was placed in nomination. Any vote cast other than a vote for a presidential candidate meeting the requirements of Article VI of this Call and Rule 12.K. of the 2016 Delegate Selection Rules shall be considered a vote for “Present.”

d. Balloting will continue until a nominee is selected. Upon selection, balloting may be temporarily suspended, provided that the balloting shall continue at a time certain determined by the Convention Chair, until all states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the territories shall publically deliver their vote prior to the nominee’s acceptance speech. The nominee shall become the candidate of the Democratic Party of the United States for the Office of President upon the conclusion of his or her acceptance speech.

Pledged and Unpledged Delegates are considered a subset of all delegates.

I. Distribution of Delegate Votes
The distribution of votes, delegates and alternates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention shall be in accordance with the following:

A. The number of Convention votes for delegates to the Convention shall be as set forth in the compilation included in this resolution and determined as provided in paragraphs B, C, D, E, F, G, and H1.

B. A base of 3,200 delegate votes is distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to a formula giving equal weight to the sum of the vote for the Democratic candidates in the three (3) most recent presidential elections and to population by electoral vote. The formula is expressed mathematically as follows:

F. Unpledged votes shall be allocated to each delegation to accommodate the members of the Democratic National Committee from that state or territory in which they legally reside. The size of such a member’s vote (i.e., whole or fractional) shall be the same size as that which he or she is allowed to cast at meetings of the Democratic National Committee. Additional unpledged delegates shall be allocated for other officers serving in three (3) positions created by the Democratic National Committee in accordance with Article 3, Section 1.e. of the Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States.

G. Unpledged votes shall be allocated to provide for the Democratic President, the Democratic Vice President, and all former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all former Democratic Leaders of the United States Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of the United States House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and all former Chairpersons of the Democratic National Committee. Such delegates shall be seated with the state delegations from the state in which they have their voting residences.

[TheDormouse]

32. Reminder: Hillary leads by 235--but 1,400 still available.

More simple math.

Hillary's lead over Bernie in pledged delegates is only 235.
There are another 1,400 pledged delegates that are still up for grabs.

[Garrett78]

73. Meaning Sanders would need to win nearly 60% of those 1400.

After Tuesday, his deficit will be even greater.

[senz]

37. "She would still fall short by 418 - 377 = 41 pledged delegates." Keep on keeping on!

Fight on, Berners! There's too much at stake.

[grasswire]

41. "Stand up! Keep fighting!"

Paul Wellstone.

[Demsrule86]

65. There are plenty of supers

They always vote for the Democrat with the most delegates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. It is easier to look at these things in retrospect.

There will come at a time when historians will look back and say the race was effectively over after Super Tuesday just as historians say the Civil War was effectively over after the Battle Of Gettysburg when the Army of the Potomac forced the Confederates to retreat.

[grasswire]

42. LOLOL nt

[senz]

43. K&R good guys! Keep this up there!

[La Lioness Priyanka]

45. the nominee will be selected on Tuesday. The rest is just wishful thinking.

The SDs won't change their votes, because Bernie is losing the popular vote, and SD's don't go against the wishes of the large percentage of primary voters.

[Califonz]

47. At this point, it seems like the FBI is the biggest superdelegate of all

[artislife]

48. There are still so many openings for a June surprise

And I say keep them all open!

[Lil Missy]

49. only in Bernieland math will she not have enough.

[highprincipleswork]

52. Whatsa matter? Don't like this kind of math? Can't stand waiting? Can't stand the thought that

something, anything could happen that keeps your candidate from getting the nomination?

Get over it!

I personally hope Bernie Sanders takes his support to the convention and possibly beyond.

If the Democratic Party was smart, they would deal with it, with him, and with his supporters (including all those Independents and even Republicans who might vote Democratic if they saw a shred of Bernie's character and policies on the Democratic side), and with his policies (from which Hillary has "borrowed" widely to get this far). They would include all of this, versus acting all victorly and excluding this, in pride and in some kind of "retribution".

That is, if they were smart. Unfortunately, I'm not holding my breath.

[Time for change]

59. I'm afraid that the Democratic Party

would rather see a Republican elected president than have Bernie get control of their party.

[MineralMan]

66. She doesn't have to, for goodness' sake.

Because superdelegates, see.

[TheDormouse]

67. kick for George II's edification

[Gothmog]

68. Super delegates are most concern about the party as a whole

Sanders will not be winning the vote of many super delegates

[imagine2015]

69. That's what I've been saying but hard core Hillary supporters just refuse to believe the facts.

[AzDar]

70. They're so DESPERATE for Bernie to surrender... Ain't happening Camp Weathervaners...

[CajunBlazer]

71. If you truely believe that BS - take as much money as you can...

... get your hands on and take it to Vegas - you can great odds betting on Sanders at this point in race. Current 'Vegas odds if you bet on Sanders - 33 to 1. Step right up and bet your house; with those odds you could become millionaire.

[TheDormouse]

72. ^ completely misses the point of the post

[Garrett78]

74. In other news, water is wet.

Since it is at the convention that a candidate is nominated, of course someone can't be nominated before the convention.

Anyway, if Clinton leads in pledged delegates something like 2175 to 1876, getting her to 2383 is a mere formality. All of these posts about how Clinton isn't likely to reach 2383 prior to the convention are a complete waste of space.

[TheDormouse]

75. Again, if Hillary can reach 2,383 before the convention from pledged

delegates earned in primaries and caucuses, then her nomination is a metaphysical certainty.

But if she cannot, and as explained already it is highly unlikely she will, then there is no way to be certain before the convention that she will win the nomination.

[Garrett78]

77. Again, if it's 2175 to 1876 or thereabouts, getting to 2383 is a mere formality.

[LonePirate]

76. The pledged delegate runner-up in 2016 will concede about when the runner-up conceded in 2008.

[TheDormouse]

78. Why do you think so?

[LonePirate]

81. Because both candidates understand the importance of unity at the convention.

There will be no contested convention. There will be only one candidate still in the race come June 15, if not earlier.

[Sheepshank]

79. your first point is wrong in it's premis...can't be bothered reading the rest

Super Delegate count for Hillary just rose by 41...they are not leaving.

[B Calm]

80. K&R

[pdsimdars]

85. I knew this but not in such detail. . . Thanks.