2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReuters national tracking poll: Hillary's lead increasing.. now leads 58-40.
Date range: April 12-22
Likely Democratic primary voters.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:1
===========================
Looks like Hillary is getting a nice bounce from New York.
Response to DCBob (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)This sounds fake to me, sorry.
So much is fake now.
Response to Baobab (Reply #26)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)Delegates, schmelegates! Those numbers are corrupted!
LiberalFighter
(50,943 posts)and has a lot of posts.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)When a poll brings bad news, it must be fake!
B Calm
(28,762 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)and then will outsmart the Republicans as the President.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)which one is the Republican?
Its not clear.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)Her husband put a regime in place which is forcing the world including less developed countries, to privatize schools and health care and basically almost everything that is shared, to steal it, - its forcing the world to accept privatization if they want to do business with us.
Now who is the progressive?
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)trumad
(41,692 posts)The one with the most support from African Americans.
Got to be kind of stupid not to figure that out.
Not to say you're stupid or anything.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)to give them jobs (at the expense of Americans and other high skill workers in other developed countries ) which have not been fulfilled yet.
If you are honestly interested in the future of our country, you SHOULD want to know about that.
Do you?
Its going to hit the African American community particularly hard because it targets the public sector.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)If there is a "shitty" candidate - it's the non-Democrat who doesn't help other Democrats and who spends 30 years getting nothing done.
If you don't like the DNC leadership - then get out there and join the DNC and quit complaining. The vast majority of bashing and trashing on GDP comes from people who are not involved and have never been involved with the DNC. Become a delegate, raise money, recruit candidates, put in the time! It's easy to rant; not so easy to do the work.
The same goes for unions (and their leaders), registering voters, and working for progressive values.
YOU are the problem because you are not doing the work - just like the ant and the grasshopper!! Bernie is a perfect role model of someone who wants to ride the coattails of others; but sit around for decades without putting in his share.
Frankly, if the first woman President is elected, DWS and the DNC will go down in history as a real revolution and extremely successful. Bernie will be a footnote.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)>If there is a "shitty" candidate - it's the non-Democrat who doesn't help other Democrats and who spends 30 years getting nothing done.
Hillary?
Sancho
(9,070 posts)the self-described socialist is not worthy to be President. He's a snake-oil salesman.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)He started the Progressive Caucus you know.
He's putting forward time proven ideas that are known to work that most importantly, aren't medical experimentation on humans that kill 100,000 people a year by denying them medical care.
Read up on Helsinki and Nuremberg.
aliens and Lock Ness monsters?
Bernie could have run as a Democrat for many years in Congress. He chose not to do so. He hasn't put in his time, so he can't expect to have the universal support of people who did the work.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)rather than the other way around.
Of course, that's not a bug, its a feature.
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)I'm sure now that the Clinton campaign has successfully used the shallow Politics of Celebrity and the "She's inevitable" and "Bernie's so mean" meme, a lot of people who honestly relate more to Sanders and his message are swinging to her as the path of least resistance...The default inevitable candidate.
Another opportunity for meaningful change squashed by the machinations of slick marketers.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He doesn't connect with large segments of our base. That's just a fact.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I think the ideal candidate would be a Barack Obama who is less tied to corporate power and more reflective of Bernie's values and goals and basic message.
Bernie has done a great job of connecting with many elements of the "base"...of you look at people as individuals rather than just as demographic marketing points...That includes many AAs and Latinos, who are strong supporters of Bernie once they become familiar with him.
There is a lot of fodder for in depth discussions regarding the dynamics of this primary in both pragmatic and "spiritual" (non-religious) terms.
But , in short, I find it very depressing that instead of embracing an opportunity for a positive renewal, the Democratic Party is choosing to stifle real reform and further embedding a status quo approach and candidate that are beyond their sell-by dates.
And I'm not a millennial -- I'm an older guy who has been seeing the same pattern for decades. And seen the damaging results both on America and the viability of the Democratic party (IMO, of course).
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/city-hall/2016/04/8596894/after-public-anguish-bronx-councilman-endorses-sanders-eve-primary
Bernie represents a special phenomenon in progressive politics. He singularly has made inequality and poverty the focal point of the presidential election that is his contribution to progressive politics and hes energizing young people to an extent never seen before, Torres said, in an interview with POLITICO New York.
Torres, who grew up in public housing in the Bronx, sent a letter to all the presidential candidates last week asking them to tour New York City Public Housing Authority buildings to see a glimpse of what decades of federal divestment has done to the citys public housing stock.
Torres, a self-described millennial and the youngest member of the City Council, had been torn on his decision for months. In an interview just last week, he described his conundrum, saying, My heart is with Bernie but my head is with Hillary.
In the end, it was Sanders agenda and commitment to closing the federal funding gap in public housing that won out....
Hes tapping into something powerful and energizing young people in a way that has not been seen. Whether you are supporting him or opposing him there is no denying the impact that hes had on progressive politics, Torres said. Hes changed the way we talk about politics and made poverty and inequality the centerpiece of the presidential election.
Torres admits there is a hint of idealism to his endorsement and to Sanders campaign, but he does not see it as a sign that a Sanders presidency would be hindered by an inability to work across party lines.
Ive had the opportunity to interact personally with Bernie and I get the sense he is incredibly communicative and open-minded and he would listen to people. There is an opportunity for elected officials and grass roots activists to shape what he thinks, Torres said.
The Bronx councilman also heaped praise on Clinton, citing her decades of experience and her record.....
DCBob
(24,689 posts)No doubt there appears to be an opportunity to embrace real reform but I think the focus for most Democrats this election has been winning in November and most see Hillary as our strongest candidate. Many are freaked out by how the Republicans have taken over congress and are attempting to force their agenda on the country. Most Democrats think Bernie is a good man with good ideas but he is seen as not being strong enough to take on the GOP.
We can still fight for reform and I do think Hillary will be more reform minded than many of you think. But beating the GOP has to be the main focus now.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I'd say two things.
I think against the GOP with the Democratic Party supporting him, Bernie would be a lot more effective as a candidate than you think. He'd also be a lot more pragmatic and effective in the WH than you think.
If the GOP screws the pooch (as they seem to be doing) either Clinton or Bernie can win. If the GOP gets its act together, then both Bernie and Clinton are wild cards.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)I will never ever vote for somebody who I consider to likely have NPD.
Ive had people with NPD in my life before and every time its happened its been a major, life changing disaster for me.
That's what people get when they trust them. Screwed.
They are the worlds best liars. Watch "The Bad Seed" or "Gaslighting" Both are about characters who have the tragic NPD illness.
I have learned my lesson. No. Its non-negotiable. Look at Hillary Clinton carefully, she is classic NPD.
And the Democratic Party base are being Gaslighted.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Sorry, I had to point it out because its just wrong.
>He doesn't connect with large segments of our base. That's just a fact.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Get lost.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Also, the Hillary/Obama contest in 2008 was similar. They went to the convention nd the world did not end.
So, give your politicking a break. You can let democracy work. It wont kill you.
brush
(53,784 posts)Come on, reality in the Sanders camp has to set in at some point.
Even the stinging defeat in New York hasn't convinced the Sanders die-hards of the futility of his plight, but two days from now in PA and MD should do it.
Agschmid
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thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)Last edited Sun Apr 24, 2016, 09:49 AM - Edit history (1)
If someone feels that Sanders is more electable in November (by virtue of far lower unfavorables among the general electorate, or by virtue of not having a legal cloud hanging over his head, or by virtue of polling which shows him doing much better against the Republican candidates), then it is Clinton who arguably is simply not the best candidate for our party.
Also, if someone feels that Sanders better represents what they see as the ideals of the Democratic party, then Clinton is again arguably not the best candidate for our party.
The one who wins is not always the best.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... Bernie's chances were blown by an incompetent campaign staff, bad advice, poor execution and flawed planning. (It wouldn't be fair for our "slick marketers" to take all the credit.)
Armstead
(47,803 posts)All conventional wisdom when he announced was that Sanders would be a fringe candidate might get 5 to 10 percent if lucky.
Instead, he has gotten within close range to a candidate backed by Big Money and Big Power who has been puffed up as "inevitable" for years.
I'd say that, win or lose, "incompetency" is not an apt description.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)It was a valiant effort, but he still comes up short. For such a flawed candidate, he had some "slick" moves himself, yet he still falls short. Whose fault is that? If he and his campaign are unable to find success against Hillary's "machinations" it's pretty obvious he wouldn't have what's needed to find success against a well funded GOP, and global political ones.
brush
(53,784 posts)No one on the Sanders side has mentioned that trip since the New York loss but they were touting it as a brilliant idea before reality interceded.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)What you are expressing is the argumentative logic that is represented when monarchies and autocratic systems attempt to "justify" themselves.
This was pointed out just now by my sweetie who grew up under communism.
The logic behind the "Divine Right of Kings" as well as China's one party system in a nutshell.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)A good portion of Bernie's support comes from independent voters. Can't win a GE with just "likely Democratic voters." More and more Americans are rejecting party labels and going indie. Bernie attracts them. Hillary can't.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)That is a state's choice.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)She is too widely seen as dishonest to win.
And the worst things have not seen the light of day yet.
So she still has a lot more sinking to do.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)538.com predictions for Tuesday: Clinton's chance of winning Maryland: 99%. Pennsylvania - 97%. Connecticut - 92%. (No poll data for Delaware or Rhode Island.)
Doesn't look like Hillary's in trouble.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)Unfortunately, our system doesn't always make it easy for everyone. I don't get paid the big bucks, so I don't know how, but I wish there was a way to make it easier.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)You know which contest have, Caucasus....shhhh, don't tell them it blows their meme
DCBob
(24,689 posts)But each state has the right to set up their elections the way the want. Each candidate simply has to deal with it.
all american girl
(1,788 posts)I've heard very few Bernie people here be concerned about that. Yes the poor don't vote as often as other groups, so let's see if they want to do something about it, or do the as always, whine. OK I'm being harsh...sorry about that.
livetohike
(22,145 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)supported Hillary?
No, I think they likely don't want any part of illary but instead will come out in huge numbers and vote for Bernie Sanders.
livetohike
(22,145 posts)If they vote for Trump, I don't trust their judgement in giving their vote to Sanders in the Primaries.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)They don't know how to register? I registered when 18 years got the vote!! I figured it out when I was barely an adult because I was motivated and labelled A1 in the draft!
Since then, I've seen states required birth certificates, proof of residency, and picture IDs.
That's the game. If you want to change the game then register and vote for someone else. Calling yourself "independent" is a copout!! It's a politically correct excuse to avoid thinking about issues and getting involved. Hell, I'd respect someone who registered as Green Party or whatever if they actually were active.
Sitting on your butt until someone hits you on FB and tells you who to vote for in a 3 minute video is not "independent". It's lazy. BTW - young people don't vote!
Baobab
(4,667 posts)They I think are likely to be people who won't ever ever vote for a war hawk who never met a war she didn't like.
Or a trade deal she didn't like.
Neither will I. I am a pacifist and I wont vote for her on conscientious objector grounds.
Mother Of Four
(1,716 posts)Independents don't associate with a party most times because there isn't a party that represents them.
So what your saying- is to have the illusion of being treated "fairly", they have to join a system that doesn't represent them, doesn't respect them as voters, and are filled with people like you who only want to insult and stereotype them.
Basicly "Tow a party line, or GTFO"
Kinda missing the point of being independent.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)I've registered outside of the Democratic party just to vote for a particular candidate - especially if there was no Democrat running. Then I registered as a Democrat to vote in the majority of elections.
If you don't agree with the Democratic party, you are free to be in the Green Party, Socialist Party, Tea Party, or any other party.
As an educator for 40 years at this point - I see lots of young people who claim to be "independent" because they don't know what they want to support; or else they can't see past a single issue or don't want to commit their time and energy to support a cause.
The is no "party line" except the you YOU create if you work to be part of the party. If you are not part of the party, then you are criticizing what others have WORKED for because they believe strongly enough to get in there and get it done. The DNC is made up of people who care about causes.
Mother Of Four
(1,716 posts)you've missed the point, completely.
Have a nice day.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)These closed primaries are Democratic Party primaries. If you want to vote, simply register as a Democrat.
If you hate the party so much, then void your registration later.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)where Bernies supporters just say he didn't win because he didn't connect with enough voters.
That the reason he's losing is because not enough voters are buying his message.
So far I haven't seen any Bernie voters suggest that he tweak his message, of narrow his
focus to a couple of bedrock issues that more voters might embrace.
His latest statements on poor people not voting was tone deaf at best.
Instead of cringing at the way it sounded Bernie supporters doubled down on it.
I haven't see one his supporters or even Bernie himself take any responsibility
at all for the position he's in.
It's always the fault of something or somebody else.
The south is too conservative, poor people don't vote, Bernies indies didn't realize the NY primary was closed,
there's a media blackout and people don't know him, the media ambushed him in his NYDN interview.
There are so many conspiracy theories floating around to absolve Bernie from any responsibility for his losses
that it sometimes feels like I've wandered into an Alex Jones forum.
I really don't think that among political junkies like the ones at DU it makes any difference but
to regular people that starts to come off as arrogance.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)as Bernie does, that the Republicans would only get 5% of the vote if people only knew what they stood for, delusion is baked in.
The facts are that Bernie has support, but not nearly as much as Hillary does.
griffi94
(3,733 posts)I also think the Bernie supporters overestimate their numbers and power.
In November a vast majority of Bernie supporters
will have gotten over their disappointment and vote for Hillary.
The Bernie or Bust people won't but they're negligible.
A very small, very angy, very loud sub-group.
We haven't lost them since we never had them and were never going to get them
unless we nominated their candidate.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)YUUUUUUUUUUGE!!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That being said it is interesting how fluid voting opinion is and how it reacts to wins and losses. If you look at aggregate polling from 08 Clinton got close to Obama around this time in that cycle and never gets close again.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)This was more a reality check for those who think Bernie is catching up nationally.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Her route to the WH will be a cakewalk. She won't need any Sanders supporters after the August convention.
I think I'll go take a vacation from politics. Good luck to ya.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)The dough I save from Bernie being out of the picture will help fund it somewhat.
Anyway, you will have gotten your wish. Be happy for that.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You get a temporary rush until the vacation is over and then you are back to reality.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Coming back can be tough at first.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)....but eventually you outgrew that.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)When I was a kid growing up in NYC and FL the thought of living in L A was like a dream. I often tell myself it would have been a lot better if I came here when i was younger.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)It's human nature, I guess.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)No wonder they have a drought. It hardly ever rains. I am sure global warming exacerbates it. I miss grass...So much grass is replaced by foliage that requires less water.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)Lots of foliage and tall, leafy stuff. Quite the opposite, but like everything else, there are upsides and downsides, too.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)PEACE
DSB
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)send a little of that nice California sunshine our way.
livetohike
(22,145 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Could be the final straws for Bernie. Lets hope so!
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Sanders has been having a tough time with messaging and control. Second, the nomination itself is over tho the campaigning is not. I think there will be less enthusiasm at the polls for him moving forward. NY was a blowout.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect donations will begin to dry up and campaign volunteers will be less.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Weaver is brilliant at using crisis to seperate people from their money. The greatest crisis they face is now. Knowing it's over but forging forward in some manner that has meaning. Weavers fundraising emails we will see over the next two weeks would be embarrassing for most of us to be associated with. Each will contain the words fraud, theft, party elites, and the word establishment no fewer than three times. I believe their haul will be shocking. I do then see it going down. Most of us have caught on to Weavers cry wolf game.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)We know exactly why we donate. We're not responding to Weaver's e-mails.
(In fact I usually trash them.)
LAS14
(13,783 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)That rate matches the current popular vote percentages so far, pretty closely. That's telling, I think:
Clinton, Hillary Diane Rodham 10,517,756 56.39%
Sanders, Bernard "Bernie" 7,845,034 42.06%
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)It comes in all forms but consistent in its degree - pure, absolute hatred.
If the poll favors Hillary, it's wrong or diseased by corporate corruption.
Any article or TV segment that does not fully support and adore Sanders, is corrupt.
Dislike the message, attack the messenger.
If all else fails, point to the business that owns the network, newspaper or whatever, and that business is controlling the content and contaminating it with its evil corporate objectives.
All incorporated organizations are corrupt. Unless they support Sanders.
All black and white thinking, he's the Saint she's the Satan, and anyone who thinks otherwise, is a Shillary.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)We need a Democrat in the White House to prevent the Republicans from gaining control of all three branches of federal government. It is that simple for me. I believe Hillary Clinton is the most likely candidate to win, so I support her.
There are no saints in politics. None.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Thanks!