Why Tuesday Could Determine The Nominees In Both Presidential Primaries

[riversedge]

Why Tuesday Could Determine The Nominees In Both Presidential Primaries

http://www.npr.org/2016/04/23/475284862/why-tuesday-could-determine-the-nominees-in-both-presidential-primaries?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160423

April 23, 2016

8:00 AM ET


Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., faces a critical test of his candidacy Tuesday. His campaign says if he misses "benchmarks," it will "reevaluate."


The primary elections across six states Tuesday could decide the nominations of both parties.

That's especially true on the Democratic side. (For the Republicans, scroll down.) Bernie Sanders has come a long way, but the Vermont independent is running out of friendly states. Tuesday is no different, as all but one of the contests (Rhode Island) in these Northeast states are closed primaries.

In other words, independents can't vote. And that's a big problem for Sanders. One analysis found that as much as 40 percent of Sanders' vote total was coming from independents, as of a month ago. Three of Tuesday's states — Maryland, Delaware and Pennsylvania — also have significant non-white populations in Democratic primaries. That plays to Hillary Clinton's strength.

Clinton now has a bigger lead over Sanders than Barack Obama ever had over Clinton at any time in 2008 — more than twice as big, in fact. When all was said and done in the 2008 primary, Obama finished just 69 pledged delegates ahead of Clinton.

His biggest pledged-delegate lead was 114 after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6th. Clinton currently has a 275-pledged-delegate lead over Sanders.

For perspective, that's bigger than where Obama finished over Clinton — 238.5 ahead — with pledged and superdelegates combined. Clinton currently has a 739-delegate lead with pledged and superdelegates.

Clinton is now 80 percent of the way to the 2,383 needed for the nomination. Yes, that includes superdelegates, but they cannot be dismissed. Their votes count, and there's little reason for them to switch allegiances if Sanders does not win a majority of pledged delegates. (She's also ahead of Sanders by 2.7 million popular votes.)

Sanders and his team seem to now be getting that reality.
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Clinton Has More Than Double The Lead In Pledged Delegates Than Obama Had At Any Point In 2008
What’s more, Hillary Clinton’s current pledged-delegate lead is bigger than Barack Obama’s final lead in 2008 with pledged and superdelegates combined (238.5).
Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 10100200300delegatesObama in 2008: 69delegatesClinton in 2016:275 delegates

Source: AP

Credit: David Eads/NPR

[auntpurl]

1. Wow. Those are some numbers.

Tuesday will definitely be interesting!

[CrowCityDem]

2. Our side was determined already, but it will put the exclamation point on it.

[Agnosticsherbet]

3. This is good news. The nomination race will soon be over, and we can work on beating Trump.

[DesertRat]

4. Indeed!