Gallup: 2012 electorate looks a lot like 2008

[WI_DEM]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup's likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama's electoral coalition, such as racial minorities, women, young adults, and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008.

The demographics of the likely voter sample give an estimate of the relative influence each subgroup will have on the overall vote due to its voter turnout. The figures in the accompanying graph are derived from Gallup survey estimates, which are different from and may not match figures from exit poll surveys that use different methods and different questions to measure these demographic variables.

see chart:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

[Renew Deal]

1. Obama is either going to win

or he's going to lose

[liberal N proud]

2. He could win and still lose

Because the republicans could steal a state or two and thereby the election would be same as 2000 or 2004.

[hrmjustin]

3. I think that 140-145 million people will turn out to vote.

[Robbins]

4. Gallup

Translation-They are trying to cover their asses when Obama wins after having Romney up In Likely voters.

[Maximumnegro]

7. BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nolabels]

17. The r-card shows and hides in many ways

A need to get the republican base energized and up for the vote comes to mind. If it became a major blow out then there might be a few more solid seats on the down ticket (that they owned before) being put up for grabs. Translation- if you can't win at the game then at least muck it enough to create a stalemate.

Besides and would be willing to bet that they would try to steal it if they get it within a couple points

[moobu2]

5. Look at the percentage of Republicans vs Democrats

Vs leaning from 08 to 12,, that doesnt look good.

[progressivebydesign]

6. "Likely voters." Do you know that that means in the real world??

That's Gallup's idea of who will vote.

The early voting is blowing that failed model out of the water.

[fugop]

8. No wonder their likely poll is so skewed

They're expecting 2 percent fewer Ds and a whopping 7 percent more Rs? In the words of Seth Myers: REAlly??

[moobu2]

10. Hopefully the increase in R's will be in Alabama or something. nt

[fugop]

11. That's the ticket.

Even then I don't see the GOP having that kind of edge. This is silly numbers for a presidential election.

[CreekDog]

16. and they're saying 4% more white voters than in 2008, which is ridiculous.

[yellowcanine]

13. Only confirms what we have been suspecting - their likely voter model is flawed.

Probably not worth getting panties wadded up.

[mgcgulfcoast]

9. then why does their stupid poll show romney ahead?

if we have the same turnout as 2008 we will win easily and their poll is garbage.

[budkin]

12. Work hard and we got this!

[Hutzpa]

14. With a lot of surprises. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I Call Bullshit On Their Demographics

Latinos comprised 9% of the electorate in 2008, not the 6% Gallup is reporting:


http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

That's a difference of 33.3%.

If a person was to lie about their ethnicity or race I think it's more likely they would lie to some anonymous person on the phone and not in a personal interview.