This is how I see the race currently

[davidn3600]

I understand some may disagree with me. That's fine. But this is just MY interpretation of the polls and everything else....

Ohio - Leans Obama
Virginia - Toss up
Florida - Leans Romney
N. Carolina - Leans Romney
Iowa - Leans Obama
Wisconsin - Leans Obama
New Hampshire - Toss up
Nevada - Likely Obama
Colorado - Toss up
Michigan - Safe Obama
Pennsylvania - Likely Obama

So if you exclude the leans it would be: Obama 237, Romney 191
If you include the leans it would be: Obama 277, Romney 235

So right now, assuming polling and early voting numbers are accurate, Obama is winning. That includes Obama LOSING North Carolina and Florida. And it's excluding Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire from the picture. Obama could even afford to lose Iowa.

Now say Romney comes up with some odd surge in Ohio and squeaks out a win. It's now Obama 259 to Romney 253.
Obama just needs 11 more EVs. He can get that with any of these 4 scenarios:
1. Win Florida
2. Win Virginia
3. Win N. Carolina
4. Win Colorado and New Hampshire

So even if Obama loses Ohio, Romney still has to be practically perfect. He has no room for error. However, the Republicans will make the argument that if they are winning in Ohio, they are probably winning in FL, NC, and VA too. And that might be an accurate assessment since the polls in those states are either tied or leaning Romney as it is. If Ohio moves, then those states likely will have as well. And then that would only leave us with scenario #4....which would make a pretty scary election night.

If Obama has an early victory in Virginia or Florida...it'll be an quick night. Otherwise we will likely have to wait for Ohio to tell us if we can go to bed by midnight or if we are heading for an all-nighter. Also even if Ohio goes to Obama, you might want to keep the champagne on ice until Wisconsin comes in just to be sure there is no upset. Because Romney could make up the Ohio loss there in combo with CO and NH. I dont trust WI after the Walker recall plus the Paul Ryan influence.

But ultimately at this point, the map is still in Obama's favor.

[MFM008]

1. i am beginning to believe

Obama gets an electoral victory. That works for me.

[Tribetime]

2. Could Know early if PA, N.H., and Virginia go to Obama thats 274

20-4-13= 274

[John2]

3. I'm saying

this, show me evidence Romney is leading in North Carolina without any Republican Pollster,even in Early voting in North Carolina? Other than facts, that is all you have. The facts show North Carolina is a tossup with Romney behind in early voting similar to Iowa and Ohio if you took away all the bias Republican Polls.