Pick a number: 303, 332 or 347

[abumbyanyothername]

Feel free to try out another one too.

I am sort of leaning 347 at this point.

But who knows, AZ may tip too.

[Tx4obama]

1. Obama: 333

[progressivebydesign]

2. I saw a number around 333-338 that I liked. nt

[Doctor Jack]

3. 303

However, i think that flordia and north carolina could go either way

[Samantha]

4. My number has been 330 for some time so I will go with 332 n/t

[Change has come]

5. I'm not greedy.

303 will do.

[ohheckyeah]

6. 567 ........

not possible?

Okay, 332.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

7. Arizona would be incredeble!

Time to turn this state around.

[Coyotl]

24. The Hispanic/Latino/Native vote is not accurately polled, so AZ is in play

This under-representation in polls impacts NV, FL, CO, IA, IN, VA

[kwolf68]

8. Not likely...

Are you saying President Obama is going to get almost all the states he got last time?

NOT happening. He is polling WAY behind 2008...At least a few states will flip this time. Indiana and North Carolina are the two most likely.

If PBO holds serve in PA and Ohio I think the election is his, but it will be close still...I'd be shocked if President BO gets over 300.

[jmowreader]

9. I am not worried about the polls

Two reasons: cell phones and Caller ID.

Too many polls are calling landlines only. Young people, who trend Obama, tend not to have landlines, or to only have computers plugged into them.

Caller ID: pollsters are getting two classes of people because of this: the elderly, who traditionally trend R, and right-wingers who like telling pollsters how conservative they are. Certainly Democrats pick up, but too many do not.

Result is a built-in GOP bias to all these polls.

The important poll is the one the government runs, and Democrats are turning out well there. We should be fine.

[Grammy23]

21. My caller ID on my Land Line announces aloud who the caller is & guess which calls I do not answer?

If it says "unknown caller" or "Private Name and Number" the machine gets to pick up. If it has an out of state Area Code and I do not recognize the number, the machine picks up. So far, I have not answered a single robo call or survey. I would say that in 95 % of the calls, there is no message left, but in the few that do leave a message they are to remind me to mail in my absentee ballot or to invite me to a REPUBLICAN event, even though I am registered as a Democrat.

No cell phone calls from either party or a polling outfit.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

23. Sam Wang and Nate Silver pretty much got it right the last time

I don't think it'll be any different this time. And all signs point to an Obama win, just not as much as last time.

[SLCLiberal]

10. How about 281?

That would be more like it.

[grantcart]

11. 318

[IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ]

12. 303. We lose FL and NC but win the remaining 6-7 so-called "battleground" states.

nt

[fujiyama]

13. 290

I think Obama will take this election losing both the entire south and the popular vote, but the midwest (OH, IA, WI) and southwest (NV, CO) will carry the day.

I'd love to be wrong and see FL, VA, and NC in O's column. I think we have a strong shot at all three and VA especially.

We're going to see massive fissures after this election and see extremely polarized results in the south and Appalachia. But fuck it. This is about the EC. The popular vote is window dressing.

[greyl]

14. 358. nt

[Democratopia]

15. All I care about is 270. That's enough to scream with joy and relief

[BlueDemKev]

29. Me, too. As long as it's above 270 that's all that matters

[kaiden]

16. Obama won't lose the popular vote.

[blue-kite]

17. 333.33 obviously

[lordcommander]

18. 347.

[davidpdx]

19. I'm sticking with the number I've had for awhile 332

Anyone can feel free to go back and look at posts I've made over the last two months and I've repeatedly used that number. The only think I'm slightly nervous about with that prediction (note I said the prediction and not the election) is Florida), so then again I could be wrong.

[Dawgs]

20. Somewhere between 281 and 303. Depends on VA, NH, and CO. n/t

[Coyotl]

22. 379

***** Official Pre-Debate Electoral College Predictions Thread *****
www.democraticunderground.com/1251162857

[bushisanidiot]

26. We aren't getting IN this time. AZ is a slim chance.

other than that, your scenario is very plausible, imho.

would love for romney to fail worse than mccain. here's hoping!

[Coyotl]

27. The Mourdock factor will impact Indiana, and Missouri, and everywhere

But, especially Indiana. There is no greater wedge issue, no greater single-issue vote-shift motivation than reproductive rights. This issue decides elections and impacts who votes.

[bushisanidiot]

25. 332 is what i've said all along

I think I'll stick with that.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

28. 347 looks very doable nt