538 Updated Again: Obama 73.1%

[Doctor Jack]

Well that is a nice surprise.

Electoral Vote

Obama 294.1

Romney 243.9

Odds of Winning

Obama 73.1%

Romney 26.9%

Popular Vote


Obama 50.2%

Romney 48.7%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[aquart]

1. Sweet dreams, everyone.

[Doctor Jack]

3. And I thought I felt good an hour ago

Look at those trend lines

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. I wonder what they are smoking at RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

showing Mittster with a 0.9% edge - they must be aggregating some bad polls....

[Doctor Jack]

4. Never mind everyone! Forget the update!

I forgot that romney has "momentum". We already lost. Everyone go home.

[ffr]

5. Shhhhh. Our state needs more down-ticket voters who've promised to vote, to vote.

It's great to see a forecast. It's even better to realize it on 11/07/12.

Keep driving everyone! No quit in me.

[DonViejo]

6. By Nov 6, I expect

the numbers will be:

Obama 53%

Romney 47%

[BootinUp]

7. I see the Mittmentum is in full swing! nt

[Doctor Jack]

11. Indeed. Look at his downward momentum!

[Lone_Star_Dem]

9. This is nice, but let's not get lazy.

Everything, and I do mean Everything, depends on us getting more people to the polls than they do! We've got tons of work to do people. Don't slack now!

[Maximumnegro]

26. WTF? Why would this make anybody slack

God I hate that 'lazy' and complacency crap. Yeah I saw Nate's numbers and figured I would take a nap until Nov. 7th.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

30. Ok.

Last edited Fri Oct 26, 2012, 12:59 PM - Edit history (1)

Put me on ignore then? Seriously, I hate people over reacting to well intended comments.

Geeze, same team here. I've just seen too much election fraud in my life to become complacent.

[Doctor Jack]

10. If you look at the "odds of winning" section

You will see that Obama is in roughly the same position that he was about september 20th. That aint too shabby.

[doc03]

12. One question how do you get 294.1 EV?

What would be the best estimate of his actual EV total?

[Doctor Jack]

15. 538 runs 10000 simulations each day

294.1 is the average over all of those simulations that Obama received.

This graph shows the most common EV over all of the simulations.

[doc03]

19. That makes it more clear. I was wondering if there was any way

you could even come up with 294 EV. If I understand the graph it looks like the
most likely scenario is a little over 330. From that graph it looks like Rmoney has a much more difficult chance or winning than any of the media is claiming. You listen to TV, I mean any channel including MSNBC and it is neck and neck.

[Doctor Jack]

25. Yeah, the absolute best case scenario for romney is a 270 win

Everything would have to fall into place perfectly for him to win and even then it would be the bare minimum. In the next 11 days, he needs to stop Obama's momentum, make up all of the lost ground, and get to the strongest position he has ever been in, in this race. Seems unlikely, to put it mildly.

[Hissyspit]

13. That's a good-sized uptick. nt

[Doctor Jack]

14. I think this works well here

[Tx4obama]

17. Or this one ...

[Doctor Jack]

22. What about this?

[Maximumnegro]

27. He's worth more than that.

HE claims he is owrth that much. Based on Bain's revenue/assets it's believed he is in fact a billionaire. IF you think about it, it has to be true. No way is he just worth that much.

[Doctor Jack]

16. State Odds are Looking Good Too

Colorado=57%

Iowa=68%

Nevada=78%

New Hampshire=69%

Ohio=75%

Virginia=54%

Wisconsin=86%

[deepen915]

24. Good news.. but.

Yeah I see all these polls.. and I am happy.. I'm more worried about some shady election fraud on election day.. ALL OF OUR VOTES BETTER COUNT FOR OBAMA!

[KaryninMiami]

18. Ahhhhhh. This is a lovely piece of news to end the night.

Thank you Nate Silver- tonight you will be the man of my dreams.

[Tutonic]

21. How You Like Me Now

Kapow!

[wisteria]

23. It is ruff out there-with all the momentum talk.

It is hard to explain what exactly is going on, but I welcome this nightly update with its sane perspective. I pray he is right on the mark.

[Maximumnegro]

28. Same BS as last week and the week before

If he has momentum he forgot to tell the states he needs to win about it.

[Doctor Jack]

29. But his support in Alabama is at record levels!

Good for him. I hope that is comforting when he is looking for something to do next year.