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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably
Were not big fans of national polls here at FiveThirtyEight. In the general election, they provide less information than state polls do, especially given that the presidency is determined by the Electoral College. But at least in the general election, everybody votes on the same day.1 Not so in the primaries, where the states vote sequentially. Furthermore, the rules vary substantially from state to state; in particular, some hold primaries and others have caucuses, which generally have much lower turnout. That makes it difficult to determine what a likely voter is in the context of a national poll.
So were not quite sure how much to read into national polls that show the Democratic race having tightened substantially. Our own national polling average has Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 7.6 percentage points, essentially2 her narrowest margin of the campaign. That lead is down from 18.5 percentage points on Jan. 31, the day before Iowa voted.
Other polling averages show an even tighter race, with Clinton up by just a couple of percentage points. We could spend some time debating the right way to calculate a national polling average given that theres no national primary, our method is designed to be deliberate rather than rush to place a lot of weight on new polls. But no matter whose numbers youre looking at, Sanders has gained on Clinton.
If Sanders has gained on Clinton, however, shouldnt we also see evidence of that from the states that have voted so far? Other things held equal, wed expect him to perform better in states voting in April than those voting in March, and better in March than in February.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/more-democrats-are-feeling-the-bern-probably/
So were not quite sure how much to read into national polls that show the Democratic race having tightened substantially. Our own national polling average has Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 7.6 percentage points, essentially2 her narrowest margin of the campaign. That lead is down from 18.5 percentage points on Jan. 31, the day before Iowa voted.
Other polling averages show an even tighter race, with Clinton up by just a couple of percentage points. We could spend some time debating the right way to calculate a national polling average given that theres no national primary, our method is designed to be deliberate rather than rush to place a lot of weight on new polls. But no matter whose numbers youre looking at, Sanders has gained on Clinton.
If Sanders has gained on Clinton, however, shouldnt we also see evidence of that from the states that have voted so far? Other things held equal, wed expect him to perform better in states voting in April than those voting in March, and better in March than in February.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/more-democrats-are-feeling-the-bern-probably/
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Nate Silver: More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably (Original Post)
bluedigger
Apr 2016
OP
cui bono
(19,926 posts)1. Is he taking election fraud and voter suppression and purging into account?
I doubt it.
.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)2. Of course not
he woorks for NYT.which is for clinton and against Bernie.
thesquanderer
(11,991 posts)4. he left nyt before starting 538 (n/t)
Robbins
(5,066 posts)5. 538 is now part of NYT
it isn't independent operation anymore.
jcgoldie
(11,645 posts)7. actually you're both wrong
fivethirtyeight.com started out independent, then was owned by the New York Times, now it's part of espn.
thesquanderer
(11,991 posts)10. Yup, that's right, I had my timeline wrong. (n/t)
msongs
(67,441 posts)3. no he is cool with sanders suppporters tactics nt
Thanks!
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)6. Were you intending this to be a pro-Sanders article? n/t
bluedigger
(17,087 posts)8. I was intending it to be informational.
It looks like both sides have thrown Nate under the bus, pulled him out, and backed over him again repeatedly, so I thought I'd give everyone another opportunity.
I though it was a pretty fair analysis with a lot of qualifications, and interesting.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)9. oh good....it was informational to me. thanks.
btw...I don't remember Hillary supporters throwing him under the bus.