2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party
By Nate Silver
April 15, 2016
Secretary Clinton cleaned our clock in the Deep South, no question about it, Bernie Sanders said during Thursday nights Democratic debate in Brooklyn. That is the most conservative part of this great country, he continued. But you know what, were out of the Deep South now. And were moving up.
I have a few problems with this line of argument, which seems to imply that Democratic voters in the Deep South dont reflect the larger Democratic electorate. (The remarks Thursday night echo previous comments made by Sanders and his campaign.) Consider Sanderss reference to the term Deep South, which traditionally describes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina: These are five of the only six states, along with Maryland, where at least a quarter of the population is black. Given the United States history of disenfranchising black voters not to mention the importance of black voters to Democrats in November its dicey for Sanders to diminish Clintons wins there.
But the Deep South isnt Sanderss only issue. His problems in the rest of the South are what really dooms him. Clintons largest net delegate gains over Sanders came from Texas (+72) and Florida (+68), two states that are within the South as the Census Bureau (and most other people) define it. Clinton also cleaned Sanderss clock in Virginia and North Carolina. Overall, Clinton gained a net of 155 delegates on Sanders in the five Deep South states, but she also added 211 delegates to her margin in the rest of the region.
n addition to being important to the Democratic Partys electoral present and future, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Texas are quite diverse. Theyre diverse ideologically Miami and Austin arent exactly the most conservative part of the country and theyre diverse racially. They contain not only a substantial number of African-Americans but also Hispanics and, increasingly, Asian-American voters.
In fact, these states are among the most demographically representative of the diverse Obama coalition that Clinton or Sanders will have to rely on in November.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-winning-the-states-that-look-like-the-democratic-party/
Democrats dismiss these states at their peril.
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)She is winning the conservative side. No doubt about that. Just confused with the headline. Anyway, glad for Bernie that his clock is clean.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)He must have forgotten that some of the states he won are also red states, such as Alaska and Oklahoma.
RED conservative and white both Alaska and Oklahoma...Hillary won the minority vote as well as white democratic vote in the south looks like the Dems party in terms of racial makeup.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Could have fooled me...
Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)Yeah, I guess that's why it's considered a dem stronghold with strong Democratic representation holding office.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)The opinions of Texas democrats are immaterial to the general election. On account of the fact that they are a small minority.
We need to capture swing states, and I don't see any advantage for Hillary in that regard.