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SWTORFanatic

(385 posts)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:32 PM Oct 2012

Why are the polls this volatile?

I have to admit this is the only election I've followed rather closely. In 2000, I was apathetic college sophmore. In 2004, Bush drove me bonkers and I did vote for Kerry but I didn't follow all that closely. In 2008, I knew Obama would win.

So we get a poll from Rassmussen that says Obama is losing CO by 6, and one from PPP that says he is winning by 4? What is this I don't even?

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Why are the polls this volatile? (Original Post) SWTORFanatic Oct 2012 OP
All pollsters use different methodologies RomneyLies Oct 2012 #1
Look at the poll averages DrToast Oct 2012 #2
1. Republican Hijinks. 2. Less people with landlines FSogol Oct 2012 #3
Media wants a close race so the polls will reflect that. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #4
Read some of the previous columns by Nate Silver for good info HERVEPA Oct 2012 #5
Each pollster has a desired outcome......... Swede Atlanta Oct 2012 #6
 

RomneyLies

(3,333 posts)
1. All pollsters use different methodologies
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:34 PM
Oct 2012

The very best polls are all conducted internally within the campaigns. those are the most expensive polls.

The public polls are the cheapest to conduct. News agencies like 'em because they can poick and choose to support whichever narrative they happen to be pushing on a given day.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
2. Look at the poll averages
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:36 PM
Oct 2012

They've proven to be more reliable than trying to guess which pollster has it right this cycle.

FSogol

(45,488 posts)
3. 1. Republican Hijinks. 2. Less people with landlines
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:38 PM
Oct 2012

3. Caller id allows voters like me to avoid polling calls
4. Polling did not keep up with technology
5. Republican hijinks.

 

Swede Atlanta

(3,596 posts)
6. Each pollster has a desired outcome.........
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:54 PM
Oct 2012

So if they run a poll and get the results they don't want they will re-run it with the questions posed differently.

I am a conservative pollster that wants people to vote for RapeisGod'swill....

First poll question:
(1) Do you agree with the President's plan to allow the Bush taxcuts to expire for upper-income taxpayers?

Result.....90% Yes, 10% No

So they will re-write the question for the second polling round:
(1) Do you agree with the commie President that wants to raise taxes on the poor job creators?

Result.....90% no, 10% Yes

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