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w4rma

(31,700 posts)
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 07:49 PM Apr 2016

Clinton Delegate Lead Down to 194, Even as Dramatic Miscounting of Delegates by Media Continues

1,299 to 1,105.

That’s the “insurmountable” delegate lead Hillary Clinton has over Bernie Sanders.

And there are still 1,674 pledged delegates yet to be awarded in twenty primaries and caucuses to be held over the next two months; scores of up-for-grabs delegates yet to be decided via state and county Democratic conventions; and hundreds and hundreds of super-delegates to be wooed by both candidates in Philadelphia this summer — with not a single one of them having officially committed themselves to anybody.

That’s the cold, hard truth — the indisputable numeric data of the current election cycle — but it’s not the story Americans are being told.

Why?

This means that Clinton’s delegate lead has dropped by 24 in just the last two weeks, and in events barely covered by the media in four of the nation’s fifty states. If similar events were to occur at even a handful of the other 46 state party conventions, Clinton’s lead, even outside any remaining primaries and caucuses, could be greatly imperiled.

False Delegate Counts, By Media Institution

(from most inaccurate delegate count to least inaccurate count)

CBS: 695 *
Politico: 672 *
NBC: 664 *
ABC: 244
Fox News: 244
RealClearPolitics: 244
CNN: 229
New York Times: 220
FiveThirtyEight: 206

* Network falsely includes super-delegates in delegate count, against the express demand of the Democratic National Committee.

So, as New York residents prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, with many of them — particularly Sanders supporters — wondering how much of a difference their vote can really make, the answer is: a very, very great deal.

For as we’ve already seen over the past two weeks, delegate leads can evaporate far faster than the even the media intelligentsia can track. The actual delegate count is 1,299 to 1,105 today, but who knows what it’ll be by mid-week, if Sanders supporters ignore the mainstream media’s computational disabilities and turn out to vote?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clintons-delegate-lead-do_b_9711160.html

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Clinton Delegate Lead Down to 194, Even as Dramatic Miscounting of Delegates by Media Continues (Original Post) w4rma Apr 2016 OP
k/r-The reporting on this is one of the biggest travestys in modern media nt Joe the Revelator Apr 2016 #1
2.4 million+ votes ahead. Will be a LOT more after Tuesday. onehandle Apr 2016 #2
less than 8% ahead in delegates now, 40% yet to be awarded + superdelegates Viva_La_Revolution Apr 2016 #4
She had Obama beat in the popular vote ...and that meant exactly what? Turn CO Blue Apr 2016 #7
Very nice. The revolution is not being televised. n/t Avalux Apr 2016 #3
Network estimates are only estimates. pat_k Apr 2016 #5
Do you think Bernie will win NY? oberliner Apr 2016 #6
R&K RiverLover Apr 2016 #8

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
2. 2.4 million+ votes ahead. Will be a LOT more after Tuesday.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:13 PM
Apr 2016

Not that the 'Not Hillary' Party cares about voters.

Turn CO Blue

(4,221 posts)
7. She had Obama beat in the popular vote ...and that meant exactly what?
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 10:50 PM
Apr 2016


Let's see... she started making the point that she was ahead in popular vote (yet another recycled talking point pulled out of the memo pile from 2008 LMAO) and it did not improve her argument with the party or super-delegates, did not improve her likability or her wins with the voters nor help her with debates with Obama whatsoever.

If I had to guess, I'd say Obama gave exactly zero fucks that Clinton beat him in the popular vote.

She is ahead by 8% in delegate count.






pat_k

(9,313 posts)
5. Network estimates are only estimates.
Sun Apr 17, 2016, 08:59 PM
Apr 2016

There will continue to be adjustments as each state moves through the stages of their selection process. From what I've seen, most networks don't seem to bother to update numbers when results are made official (which is usually some number of days after). Initial numbers often don't include absentee.

For information about delegate selection process in each state you can go to thegreenpapers.org.

For example, link to process for NY:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-D

Easy way to get to process and counts for other states is to just change NY for state abbreviation. For example, Michigan:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D

I think their counts are the most accurate (at least they appear to have been updated after various district conventions).

For pledged and unpledged numbers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

And for list of pledged delegates and preference for H or B:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-Unpledged.phtml#NY

thegreenpapers.org have been around a long time. I think they're great!


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