2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton Delegate Lead Down to 194, Even as Dramatic Miscounting of Delegates by Media Continues
1,299 to 1,105.
Thats the insurmountable delegate lead Hillary Clinton has over Bernie Sanders.
And there are still 1,674 pledged delegates yet to be awarded in twenty primaries and caucuses to be held over the next two months; scores of up-for-grabs delegates yet to be decided via state and county Democratic conventions; and hundreds and hundreds of super-delegates to be wooed by both candidates in Philadelphia this summer with not a single one of them having officially committed themselves to anybody.
Thats the cold, hard truth the indisputable numeric data of the current election cycle but its not the story Americans are being told.
Why?
This means that Clintons delegate lead has dropped by 24 in just the last two weeks, and in events barely covered by the media in four of the nations fifty states. If similar events were to occur at even a handful of the other 46 state party conventions, Clintons lead, even outside any remaining primaries and caucuses, could be greatly imperiled.
False Delegate Counts, By Media Institution
(from most inaccurate delegate count to least inaccurate count)
CBS: 695 *
Politico: 672 *
NBC: 664 *
ABC: 244
Fox News: 244
RealClearPolitics: 244
CNN: 229
New York Times: 220
FiveThirtyEight: 206
* Network falsely includes super-delegates in delegate count, against the express demand of the Democratic National Committee.
So, as New York residents prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, with many of them particularly Sanders supporters wondering how much of a difference their vote can really make, the answer is: a very, very great deal.
For as weve already seen over the past two weeks, delegate leads can evaporate far faster than the even the media intelligentsia can track. The actual delegate count is 1,299 to 1,105 today, but who knows what itll be by mid-week, if Sanders supporters ignore the mainstream medias computational disabilities and turn out to vote?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clintons-delegate-lead-do_b_9711160.html
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)Not that the 'Not Hillary' Party cares about voters.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Turn CO Blue
(4,221 posts)Let's see... she started making the point that she was ahead in popular vote (yet another recycled talking point pulled out of the memo pile from 2008 LMAO) and it did not improve her argument with the party or super-delegates, did not improve her likability or her wins with the voters nor help her with debates with Obama whatsoever.
If I had to guess, I'd say Obama gave exactly zero fucks that Clinton beat him in the popular vote.
She is ahead by 8% in delegate count.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)There will continue to be adjustments as each state moves through the stages of their selection process. From what I've seen, most networks don't seem to bother to update numbers when results are made official (which is usually some number of days after). Initial numbers often don't include absentee.
For information about delegate selection process in each state you can go to thegreenpapers.org.
For example, link to process for NY:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-D
Easy way to get to process and counts for other states is to just change NY for state abbreviation. For example, Michigan:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D
I think their counts are the most accurate (at least they appear to have been updated after various district conventions).
For pledged and unpledged numbers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml
And for list of pledged delegates and preference for H or B:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-Unpledged.phtml#NY
thegreenpapers.org have been around a long time. I think they're great!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)What is your prediction?
1,299 to 1,105.
GO Bernie!!!!