Updated 4/18: New York polling has been remarkably stable over past 10 days.

[DCBob]

Last edited Mon Apr 18, 2016, 09:10 AM - Edit history (2)

Updated with latest which continues the trend..



=========================



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

Hillary has ranged from 51-57 and Bernie from 40-43. Amazing consistency. Suggests they have it right.

Looks like a big win for Madam Nominee on Tuesday!

[IamMab]

1. We brought the pollsters into the conspiracy early. They were nearly founding members.

[DCBob]

2. Ha!

[NurseJackie]

14. Damn! Hillary can do ANYTHING!!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

61. Plenty of conspiracies with Hillary...

vimeo.com/163178551

[BreakfastClub]

71. They've all been bought off by Wall Street!!!!! nt

[realmirage]

3. Tuesday's gonna be fun!

[DCBob]

4. Yep.. cant wait!

[NurseJackie]

16. I'll try not to gloat...

... too much.

[workinclasszero]

27. You are a better person than I am

[NurseJackie]

69. Well ... I'll only "try". But I didn't say how much effort I'll put into trying.

Oh, fuckit ... never mind... who am I kidding? I changed my mind! I'm gonna gloat like it's 1999.

Note to Jury: The above statements represent my opinion. No DU rules or terms of service have been violated. It is not against the rules to have an opinion that differs from the Alerter. --- REMINDER: Jury Duty is not intended to be a weapon to silence opponents. It's a community standards tool to enforce the terms of service. Use your best and honest judgement when deciding if this post violates the actual DU rules.

[Hortensis]

73. Let's cross our fingers. We'd like a big win, after all.

[One of the 99]

5. And the polls had Bernie losing in Michgan too.

I live in NYC and all the Dems I know are voting for Bernie.

[anotherproletariat]

35. That sounds scientific. With that logic, how could Sanders lose? nt

[One of the 99]

46. Just saying that you can't rely on polls.

They can be wrong.

[LiberalFighter]

6. That will push Clinton up by about 30 to 40 delegates

Delegate split about 140 - 107. (Low estimate)

Clinton from 1309 to 1449
Sanders from 1095 to 1202

Spread from 214 to 247

Delegates Remaining: 1400

[DCBob]

12. And then next Tuesday its gets even worse for Mr Sanders.

MD and PA are going to go big for Hillary as well.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

62. The question is, how can it get better for Clinton considering this...

vimeo.com/163178551

[DCBob]

66. I dont have time to watch that..

A brief summary would be nice.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Almot none of it is post debate. Odd

The CBS poll covered 3 days, with only the last being collected post debate. It also has the closest spread at 10 points. None of the other polls collected any data since the debate.

[Lil Missy]

8. She won the debate, so her lead will remain the same or get better. n/t

[RoccoR5955]

9. that's your biased opinion

In my opinion, Obama won the debate. Hillary convinced me to vote for him!

[Lil Missy]

10. Pssssst! Obama is not running. n/t

[RoccoR5955]

11. I know that.

But Hillary was mentioning him and praising him so much, that I would rather vote for Obama than Clinton!

[DCBob]

15. If you are good with President Obama then I would think you would be a Hillary supporter.

Policy wise they are much closer.

[RoccoR5955]

17. Yeah.

One was "Yes we can," but didn't, the other is "No we can't," and doesn't do it, but talks a good game!

[morningfog]

36. I can be good or okay with Obama and know that we still

need a change from status quo.

[appalachiablue]

47. +10

[DCBob]

13. I think the debate probably helped Hillary if anything...

or most likely no effect.

[RoccoR5955]

18. Listen to the end of the debate again

then tell me again that Clinton won. Only in a Bizzaro World did she win.

[DCBob]

19. Winning a debate is not just about scoring points with simplistic one-liners.

Hillary won by being the adult in the room with logical arguments and specifics on proposals. That might be boring to some but to most voters that is what we want.

[RoccoR5955]

20. Yeah, she mentioned Obama so much

I thought that she was campaigning for him!
She's all talk, no action.
I guess you want more wars. I guess you want social security to be privatized. I guess you don't want a living minimum wage.
If that's what you want, you certainly deserve it. I only hope that none of your kids are in the military, or you are nearing retirement age, or you don't have to look for a job any time soon.

[DCBob]

21. I fear for this country and the world if the Republicans take over.

Hillary is our best bet to keep the White House. Its as simple as that.

[RoccoR5955]

25. Keep the White House

but lose the House and Senate. We need both!
Bernie brings others, like it or not.
There ARE RepubliCONs and Independents who will vote for Bernie, and the races down ticket.
No RepubliCON nor any Independent will vote for Clinton.

[DCBob]

29. I think we will do fine down ticket.

There are analysts who think we win back the Senate. That would be huge.

[brush]

53. Ahhh . . . he has contributed very little to down-ticket dems, unlike Clinton who has done that . .

continuously. Which is ironic as Sanders should be most aware that he can't get his agenda passed without a dem congress.

[RoccoR5955]

57. Thank You

That's the meme coming from Camp Clinton. I know that you are all programmed to say that.
Thank You for the obvious.

We shall see if she continues her "contributions" (I like to call them bribes, because that's what they actually are) when she has lost the primary.

[brush]

85. Bribes to help another dem get elected? Ok, guess that's how people who just joined . . .

the party look at it and don't seem to understand getting the White House without Congresspeople and Senators will get you no effing where.

Democrats know this, independents just turned Dems seem to be not up to speed yet on such an all important matter so they call help to other dems bribes.

[lunamagica]

22. Come on, Sanders brought nothing new to the table. The same thing he has said in the previous eight

Last edited Sun Apr 17, 2016, 04:51 PM - Edit history (1)

debates, which is a repetition of his usual speech.

His opening was just pathetic. The same, old tired opening which didn't have a single word pertaining to NY.

When he was asked to provide an example how Hillary's had been influenced by Wall Street in her Senate career, he couldn't give one.

Eight debates haven't helped him so far...why would this one be different, when nothing new was presented?

[RoccoR5955]

24. The thing is

is that the "same thing" resonates. People listen to that same thing that Bernie has been saying for quite a long time, and know it's true, and must be changed.
Clinton says a lot, but she does nothing for the middle and working classes. She only does what is correct for the upper crust.
I do not want a president that does not have any concern for us. I am not one of the 1%, as she is, and shall not vote for her.

[lunamagica]

32. It doesn't resonate enough. His supporters are a noisy lot, but he is behind by millions of votes

and hundreds of delegates. Obviously most voters don't agree with your assessment of Clinton. That's because they are right wing smears.

Here are some of her work helping middle and working classes

•created Arkansas's Home Instruction Program for Preschool Youth
•led a task force that reformed Arkansas's education system
•Instrumental in passage of the State Children's Health Insurance Program
•Promoted nationwide immunization against childhood illnesses
•Successfully sought to increase research funding for prostate cancer and childhood asthma at the National Institutes of Health
•Worked to investigate reports of an illness that affected veterans of the Gulf War (now recognized as Gulf War Syndrome)
•Helped create the Office on Violence Against Women at the Department of Justice
•Initiated and shepherded the Adoption and Safe Families Act
•Helped create Vital Voices, an international initiative to promote the participation of women in the political processes of their countries.
•Served on five Senate committees:
-Committee on Budget (2001–2002)
-Committee on Armed Services (2003–2009)
-Committee on Environment and Public Works (2001–2009)
-Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (2001–2009)
-Special Committee on Aging.
•Member of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe
•Instrumental in securing $21 billion in funding for the World Trade Center site's redevelopment
•Leading role in investigating the health issues faced by 9/11 first responders.

And there is more. Does this sound to you like someone who does nothing for middle and working classes?

Sanders has had a decades long career with very little to show for it. He is all talk, and I quote you here "for quite a long time".

Hillary has worked hard, starting at a very young age. I can't imagine the reaction here if she had never had a real job until she was 40!

At the age where Sander was pretty much a drifter, Hillary had already done so much work helping the middle and working classes, esp women and children. That's what we need in the WH

[George II]

33. Not enough!!!

[RoccoR5955]

34. Nice copy and paste job.

Sanders was a drifter, oh well. As far as I'm concerned, that's better than a corporate grifter, and a Goldwater Girl, which was Clinton's way.

I'm not buying your copy and paste propaganda from the campaign.

What about the war that killed thousands of Americans?

Can you explain, in your own words, how this helped the middle and working class without copying and pasting?

It's one thing to copy and paste a person's accomplishments, it's another thing to actually understand them.

The votes that Bernie is behind by correlate to the fact that there are many many fewer voters in caucuses than there are in primaries. This is a bogus "fact." It has very little to do with the nomination. He is only behind by about 220 committed delegates. Superdelegates can waver with the wind.

You keep copying and pasting.
Perhaps someone will believe you.
Oh and don't bother to respond, I put you on ignore.

[lunamagica]

40. I don't see anything wrong with copying and pasting the good work she has done

What is your problem? do you believe that what I posted were lies?

And come on, the stuff is self explanatory. For example "Helped create the Office on Violence Against Women at the Department of Justice" Don't you see how that helped women?

"Initiated and shepherded the Adoption and Safe Families Act" Do you really need explanation for this?
Same with the rest of them.

You know that Hillary has surpassed Obama in PDs?

I'm not replying for your benefit. Go on, hide from the truth.

[angrychair]

44. lunamagica, HRC is not who you think she is

The person that 'created' the "office on violence against women" told a 12-year of girl she wanted to be raped.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/clintons-delegate-lead-do_b_9711160.html

Clinton's own words:
“I have been informed that the complainant is emotionally unstable with a tendency to seek out older men and engage in fantasizing,” Clinton, then named Hillary D. Rodham, wrote in the affidavit. “I have also been informed that she has in the past made false accusations about persons, claiming they had attacked her body. Also that she exhibits an unusual stubbornness and temper when she does not get her way.”

What happened to that little girl:
"In her interview with The Daily Beast, she recounted the details of her attack in 1975 at age 12 and the consequences it had for both her childhood and adult life. A virgin before the assault, she spent five days afterwards in a coma, months recovering from the beating that accompanied the rape, and over 10 years in therapy. The doctors told her she would probably never be able to have children."

[appalachiablue]

48. Kick & Rec This Post. Important to know who we're dealing with, for decades.

[pnwmom]

64. Our system of justice depends on criminal attorneys giving a vigorous defense

to their clients.

Hillary didn't ask for that case. To the contrary, she asked how she could get out of it, when it was assigned to her by a judge. The answer was that she couldn't. Once she had the case, it was her job to listen to her client and represent him. She is not reporting her own views in the affidavit. She was a 27 year old lawyer in a small town who was acting as a court appointed attorney by someone who could not afford a lawyer.

[angrychair]

70. Got it

HRC supporters have no issues with her ridiculing a 12 year child saying she deserved to be beaten and raped and made infertile as she was "fantasizing" about older men and "an unusual stubbornness and temper when she does not get her way.”

If this had been Sanders, the world would be on fire right now about this.

[pnwmom]

74. She wasn't ridiculing anyone. She was reporting the defendant's claims and representing him. n/t

[angrychair]

78. No, she was doing what I said she was doing

Those were HRC's words, not her client's words. The accused didn't even know here.


Here is what I find stunning:
Police officers get found "not guilty" in a court of law of killing young black men and it's wrong, miscarriages of justice and dozens of OPs are made to attacking the courts, defense, prosecutor and so on.


Clinton, in her own words, says that a 12-year old child, who was a virgin at the time of the attack, that was beaten, raped and made infertile by an attack from her client, deserved it because of "fantasies" about older men and being impetuous though she was still recovering from the attack at the time.

This "blame the victim" rape culture, even as a legal defense, is disgusting and defending it, while attacking the legal that does directly involve your candidate, is just as disgusting and embarrassing.

[pnwmom]

80. The affidavit says, "I have been informed . . . " That shows those are not her words.

She is representing her client with this statement.

Clinton did not say this child deserved what happened to her.

But it is NOT the job of a defense attorney to assist the prosecution in convicting a defendant; it is the job of a defense attorney to provide a vigorous defense.

[angrychair]

83. That is splitting hairs and you know it

the defense of a client DOES NOT have to include the "blame the victim" slut-shaming. This is no different than the "what were you wearing at the time of the attack" or "were you wearing makeup".
It was unquestionably true she was beaten and raped and dropping the statement about a 12-year old child having sexual fantasies involving older men being related to why she was attacked is disgusting and vile.

[pnwmom]

84. No, it is the essence of our justice system. Defense attorneys represent their clients.

It's their job.

Then it's the job of the jury or a judge to decide on the outcome.

[dsc]

77. you know who else hated defense lawyers

Hitler and Stalin and every dictator who has ever walked the earth.

[lunamagica]

67. That is such a dirty, low-blow, that not even the Sanders campaign has brought it up

Hillary was a public defender. She was assigned the case. She requested to be removed from it, but the request was denied, so, she did her job. That is how the system works.

Even the prosecutor in the case defended Hillary over this:

The prosecutor in the case, Mahlon Gibson, defended Clinton in an interview with CNN last month, calling questions over her role “ridiculous.”

“If you are appointed by the court, you damn better do everything you can do to defend them,” Gibson said.

Here are some links so you can educate yourself:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2015/04

/hillary_clinton_defended_an_alleged_rapists_feminist_lawyers_are_right_to.html

http://freebeacon.com/politics/hillary-clinton-speaks-about-defense-of-child-rapist/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/07/hillary-clinton-rape-case_n_5564770.html

[angrychair]

72. Nothing

Nothing will make the blaming of a child for being raped and beaten "ok".
This "blame the victim" rape culture is bullshit and that HRC supporters have really been drinking the koolaid to be able to go along with this.

[lunamagica]

82. You didn't read the post, or the links, didn't you?

I don't follow you. but I bet you have a number of posts screaming about mass incarceration.

With the hatred I've seen towards defense attorneys here, it's pure hypocrisy to rant about mass incarceration.

Both defense attorneys and prosecutors must do their jobs the fullest extent of the law.

According to press accounts, the case fell apart because of a combination of factors: contradictory statements by the complainant, prosecutorial incompetence, and “aggressive” defense advocacy. But it is wrong to call Clinton’s thorough investigation of the case, including sending evidence to a forensics expert, overly aggressive. Likewise, developing a viable defense theory—that a troubled child might not be a credible witness—is not at all improper. Clinton was right to pursue her client’s interest no matter the charge or her own misgivings. She understood that she could not be both lawyer and judge.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2015/04/hillary_clinton_defended_an_alleged_rapists_feminist_lawyers_are_right_to.html

You totally ignored my reply. You are going on pure emotion and hatred of Clinton, without an ounce of reasoning.

But please, answer this...why hasn't Sanders brought this up?

[pnwmom]

75. +1000. n/t

[DemonGoddess]

68. what really happened

Because of her exemplary pretrial advocacy, the case did not go to trial and Clinton did not have to face the alleged victim. This was probably a good thing for her client, as Clinton seems to have felt ambivalent about the case. She said in an interview that she initially resisted the appointment, and she made a sardonic reference to the accuracy of polygraph tests—because her client managed to pass one.

But Clinton should not have to apologize for her defense of her client, or for feeling proud of the outcome: a plea to a lesser charge and short jail sentence. She is being taken to task for “laughing” about the case in an interview from the 1980s, when she was first lady of Arkansas. But nowhere in that interview does she laugh at the alleged victim. She laughs when she describes her client’s polygraph results and prosecutors bungling the case by destroying evidence. This is familiar criminal defense gallows humor.

[link:http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2015/04/hillary_clinton_defended_an_alleged_rapists_feminist_lawyers_are_right_to.html|

[pnwmom]

76. Yes. And our whole system of justice depends on having good defense lawyers

to represent clients who are facing all the power of the state.

[angrychair]

79. Gross

Here is what I find stunning:
Police officers get found "not guilty" in a court of law of killing young black men and it's wrong, miscarriages of justice and dozens of OPs are made to attacking the courts, defense, prosecutor and so on.


Clinton, in her own words, says that a 12-year old child, who was a virgin at the time of the attack, that was beaten, raped and made infertile by an attack from her client, deserved it because of "fantasies" about older men and being impetuous though she was still recovering from the attack at the time.

This "blame the victim" rape culture, even as a legal defense, is disgusting and defending it, while attacking the legal that does directly involve your candidate, is just as disgusting and embarrassing.

[pnwmom]

81. Clinton did not say any of those things "in her own words." She was representing her client's

claims when she wrote the affidavit. And that was her job as the court-assigned defense attorney.

[DemonGoddess]

41. Thank you!

[pnwmom]

56. Emerson's post debate poll puts her up +15.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. The Emerson 55-40 poll is all Post-Debate!!!

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_9be49212aa1f45efb06ed31243e26ad1.pdf

[Beacool]

23. It's a given that she's going to win NY.

The only question is by how much.

[morningfog]

37. If she wins, I think it will be by single digits.

But we'll see.

[RoccoR5955]

49. I KNOW that she will win by negative points.

You might call it a win, in the land of Clintonistas, but I shall call it a win for Bernie.

[Beacool]

51. She'll win in real life.

The ones living in a parallel world are not the Hillary supporters.

[RoccoR5955]

52. Do you have

any more of what you are imbibing in? I sure could use an occasional break from reality!

[workinclasszero]

26. Cmon Tuesday!

[SharonClark]

28. Excellent news!

[Blue Meany]

30. It's in the last 3 day when the shift takes place n/t

[MoonRiver]

31. What shift? eom

[CorkySt.Clair]

38. The unicorn sparklepony shift

[Beacool]

39. As the saying goes, hope springs eternal.....

[MoonRiver]

42. Oh, thaaat shift!

[DCBob]

43. Hehe..

[JackRiddler]

45. Updated intel reports, 1988.

The threat from the Soviet state has been remarkably stable over past 10 years.

[DCBob]

50. Bizarre analogy.

[JackRiddler]

54. Moderately funny joke though.

If you keep employing the same flawed model, you will keep getting the same mistaken results.

[DCBob]

55. Moderately funny.. I will give you that.

[RoccoR5955]

58. So was Michigan n/t

[DCBob]

59. Michigan was an open primary.. NY is not.

Bernie doesnt do so well with just Democrats.

[RoccoR5955]

60. Thanks for the meme

from Camp Clinton. I know that is what they have programmed you folks to say, and you are obeying just like good little brown shirts.

[DCBob]

65. Those are facts.

I dont get any "memes" from anyone.