GOTV in Nevada (NV) adding to gains Day 5

[ffr]

Last edited Thu Oct 25, 2012, 11:23 PM - Edit history (3)

Day 5 10:45 PM EST 10/25/12 Update, 21% of registered voters
Democrats-- 122,451, or 45.8% percent (Dems to Reps only: 55.1%)
Republicans --99,894, or 37.3 percent (Dems to Reps only: 44.9%)
IAPs -- 45,242, or 16.9%

Day 5 totals from Nevada Sos PDF

Assuming Nevada IAPs support based on polls of 53/44 in favor of Romney and splitting remaining undecided 3% 56/44 respectively, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 142.955, or 53.4%
Reps: 124.632, or 46.6%
This may be something closer to a conservative estimate of realistic results.
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Day 5 8:00 PM EST 10/25/12 Update
Democrats-- 101,935, or 46.6% percent (Dems to Reps only: 56.3%)
Republicans -- 79,058, or 36.2 percent (Dems to Reps only: 43.7%)
IAPs -- 37,623, or 17.2%
Silver State Web site

Assuming Nevada IAPs support based on polls of 53/44 in favor of Romney and splitting remaining undecided 3% 56/44 respectively, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 118,986, or 54.4%
Reps: 99,630, or 45.6%
This may be something closer to a conservative estimate of realistic results.


Day 5 9:20 AM EST 10/25/12 Update
Democrats padded Obama's edge in the southern portion of the state by over 5,000 (now +30,000) early votes over Romney, while the conservative leaning north favors Romney by 900. The GOTV drive to re-elect Obama-Biden continues. -ffr

Clark County overall (heavily populated Southern Nevada), results are slow coming out of the north.
Democrats-- 89,687, or 50 percent (Dems to Reps only: 60.3%)
Republicans -- 59,099, or 33 percent (Dems to Reps only: 39.7%)

Unless there is significant partisan hemorraghing by Obama and unless he is getting killed by indies (no sign of that in any polling), this firewall will be tough for the GOP to pierce...the Democrats likely won't get to 2008 levels, but may get to 65,000 or so. - Jon Ralston


DAY 4
10:30 PM EST 10/24/12 UPDATE:
214,609 Early Votes cast: Dems v Reps & totals

Dems: 55.5%..|..99,415....46.3%
Reps: 44.5%..|..79,697....37.1%
IAPs: ...-......|..35,497....16.5%

Dem lead over Reps: 19,718
In-person early voting is up 30% in 2012 from 2008 <link> ~173,000 v ~143000


6:00 EST 10/24/12
Democrats leading by ~21,000 votes in Early Voting, nearly 3 to 2 ratio over Republican EV.
Jon Ralston Reports

Cannot independently verify, but his numbers have always held up. The Nevada Secretary of State's Web site EV stats link went down last night and hasn't been fixed and the numbers posted in PDF form from this morning under represent Ralston's numbers. Actual ratio from NVSOS this AM, not including IAPs was:

Dems: 56.8%
Reps: 43.2%

[barnabas63]

1. ty!

[WI_DEM]

2. Great news. Ohio, Virginia and Nevada.

[VirginiaTarheel]

3. What percentage of registered Nevadans have voted?

I saw it was 20 percent in Clark County.

[amborin]

4. great news!

do we know how indies are voting?

i hope we out-vote them so that even in the
worst case scenario where all indies
vote for romnney, we still vastly outnumber

[ffr]

5. It's in the link provided

21 percent of all :Clark: county voters have early voted. <here>

The north is about the same, but again, numbers are slow coming from the Secretary of States office showing the latest results. NV SoS Web Site

:Romney: has a 53/44 advantage with independents, so not enough to dent the Democratic GOTV efforts there. - Jon Ralston link