Nate Silver: Romney's momentum has stopped.

[RedSpartan]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/?gwh=24D7B7574B792004173176C9790A28A3

[mucifer]

1. Actually it says "Romney's momentum SEEMS TO have stopped"

Just to clarify the article title. I'm sorry I always lean towards pessimism so that jumped out at me. But, it's better than saying "romney's momentum keeps going."

[RedSpartan]

2. I hear you.

Nate likes to hedge a bit in his language, but we all have known this for a while now, so it's nice to see someone like him, who gets a lot of attention, basically saying it as well. Hopefully it helps the media narrative turn to reality (ha!). Time is running out for Romney.

[Cosmocat]

6. I think this is the trend now

no more debates ...

Short of something VERY significant, there is not anything that can change the tide of the election.

Romney chippped into what was a building Obama lead pretty clearly.

But, his surge very much appears to have leveled off, and there HOPEFULLY is a slow tick up for the President moving forward.

I don't think he will get to pre-first debate levels.

But, I suspect we are going to see some pretty solemn Morning Joe types moving forward.

[Dawgs]

10. The jobs number that come out next Friday MAY have an impact.

Really negative or really positive might move the needle a little bit.

[RedSpartan]

11. Jobless claims dropped today by 23,000.

More than was forecast. That's a good sign leading into next week.

[Cosmocat]

21. It could

so late, it might not make a dent either way.

And, the other indicators of the jobs numbers seem to lead a pretty good guess that at worst it will be the same.

But, if it were close either way, maybe it could make a difference.

[bushisanidiot]

3. And Romney's lead in Ras just ticked down one point today, too from +4 to +3

Romney has definitely lost steam and is on his way down from an artificial high.
and all the stupid pundits that bought into the "surge" or the "bump" will
have egg all over their faces.

[Democat]

8. That means he's probably down to +49 on Unskewed Polls?

[mzteaze]

14. LOL!

Yep, cuz we all know that Unskewed Polls are completely unbiased.

[Cosmocat]

4. I got roughed up a bit by some for being a hater

when I noted that Romney had made SUBSTANTIAL ground after the first debate.

It just was the "reality" and the numbers are the numbers.

I think it is becoming clear that bleeding has stopped, and honestly, I think it is very likely that the President does indeed have a "pinch" of momentum as Silver noted was possible.

[OhZone]

9. I'm glad you put "reality" in quotes -

since a lot of the reality is bullshit. Obama was a little tired at the beginning of the debate and too polite, but it wasn't as if he admitted to murder or slugged someone or had a fainting spell.

The media, especially the pseudo-left media like MsNBC wanted a horse race so they exaggerated the whole thing.

And gallop switched to likely voters and rasmussen always plays games.

Much of the "reality" of the bounce was faked.

IMHO.

[Cosmocat]

23. i agree totally with your assessment

of the debate, and that the SPIN of it was greatly disproportionate to what it actually was.

But, it wasn't just a few polls, the polls of polls, including silver, showed it had a pretty substantial impact by chewing up what had been a pretty decent margin that the President had built up.

I think what happened really, was there was a good chunk of votes that were Romney's to be had (people just absolutely would not vote for Barrack Obama this time, at least) who he was able to pull into his column after the debate - again, at the very least because of the hype.

It also provided some much needed excitment for the Rs, who had been one hair away from throwing the towel in.

the reality was the numbers - there were there, just as they are there now.

I also posted that I believed it would be Romney's high water mark, and we are really about a week from that cake being baked in the President's favor.

[Tutonic]

5. Rhu Rho.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Nate is so super-immersed in this election. Hope he's right - or he'll

probably go bonkers.

I heard him on NPR...he said he loves the excitement and details of elections - but doesn't care that much about politics

[Floyd_Gondolli]

12. It stopped a week ago

But it's nice Nate is getting with the times.

[bushisanidiot]

17. +1

.

[amborin]

13. this is so great!!!!!!! And that is what S.W. said day before yesterday also! n/t

[geek tragedy]

15. The only disquieting thing is that Obama isn't ahead in the national polls.

Also, it looks like most national polls are either junk (e.g. Gallup, IBD/TIPP) or science experiments (RAND).

The electoral college is our best friend.

[hogwyld]

18. The national polls were not in our favor

If Obama is leading by 5 in the North, East, and West, but trailing by 20 in the South, which we will not win anyway, the average of the numbers go in Rmoney's favor. That's why the EC numbers are so important.

[geek tragedy]

19. Obama's ahead by more than 5 in the Northeast, and I doubt he's behind by 20 in the

South, whose big states include Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, where he'll run at worst within 5 points.

[TexasCPA]

16. Just hoping this debate bounce will be longer than 3 days

[PsychProfessor]

20. His "bounce" ended at the VP debate.

It has just taken some time for folks to recognize the plateau.

I think that Obama is actually WAY down in the deep red states. That would explain the differences are showing up in the national vs. swing state polls. I assume Obama is up pretty well in the blue states, but is WAY WAY down in the red ones. This would explain the slim margins in the national polls. Of course it doesn't matter how big a margin Romney gets in Alabama or Mississippi, the electoral votes are what they are. I don't think any of the deep south is going to be close (though, I was surprised to hear that Ryan is campaigning in Georgia: Really, Georgia? Yes. Today). My understanding is that the republicans are trying to mob the early vote in the deep red states to at least make it a very close outcome in terms of the popular vote. And perhaps lead us into the horrifying result of 2000, but hopefully with a better ultimate outcome.

[OldDem2012]

22. Geeeez. Romney got "momentum" the second the pollsters switched from the....

....registered voter model to the likely voter model after the first debate and then claimed Dem voters were "less enthusiastic" about voting than GOP voters. That resulted in Romney's "bounce" in the polls which was largely if not totally non-existent.